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Another week, another update to my 2021 Starting Pitcher Baller Ranks, where we take stock of my top 101 SPs moving forward.
This is the first "full" version of the year where the ranks table below comes with this google sheet that accompanies the table and adds a smattering of stats. Do note that I leave off most injured players, and removing those injured players being can give an illusion that others have risen despite mediocre performances.
On that sheet, you will find the usual 5x5 categories, strikeout and walk rates, and BABIP for now. Do note that other stats will be added, but I don't want to clog it up with noise while we're this early in the young season. Let's just get onto my Top 101 SPs!
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Top 101 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 4
| Rank | (+/-) | $ | Tier | Player | EV | $PV | Trend | Notes |
| 1 | 0 | 43.0 | 1 | Jacob deGrom | 8.8 | 43.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Asked for an additional rest day, nearly 50% K rate. Wow |
| 2 | 0 | 39.0 | 1 | Shane Bieber | 7.8 | 39.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Can live with higher BB% if it means attacking edges well |
| 3 | 0 | 38.0 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 10.8 | 38.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Doubters being punished, he's still an elite arm |
| 4 | 0 | 34.0 | 2 | Trevor Bauer | 4.4 | 34.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Rewarding those who bought in near the Rd 1/2 turn |
| 5 | 1 | 33.0 | 2 | Yu Darvish | 5.1 | 30.0 | 3.0 ▲ | The wins will follow the strong outings eventually |
| 6 | 1 | 30.0 | 2 | Aaron Nola | 8.2 | 29.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Undressed STL w/ CGSHO, 10 Ks after two clunkers v. NYM |
| 7 | -2 | 29.0 | 2 | Lucas Giolito | 3.0 | 33.0 | -4.0 ▼ | Ouch, lick your wounds and get back out there, stud |
| 8 | 0 | 28.0 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 2.7 | 28.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Some HR damage will happen but control showing up |
| 9 | 1 | 28.0 | 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.7 | 26.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Future HoFer doing HoFer things, enjoy it |
| 10 | 4 | 26.0 | 2 | Corbin Burnes | 11.2 | 22.0 | 4.0 ▲ | Historic 40/0 K/BB ratio is beyond our wildest dreams |
| 11 | 1 | 25.0 | 2 | Brandon Woodruff | 7.6 | 24.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Burnes overshadowing Woodruff's own stout takeoff |
| 12 | 5 | 24.0 | 3 | Tyler Glasnow | 11.3 | 21.0 | 3.0 ▲ | Spectacular when healthy, whiffs can hang with the best |
| 13 | 0 | 24.0 | 3 | Lance Lynn | 7.5 | 24.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Brief IL stint, should only miss one start |
| 14 | -3 | 22.0 | 3 | Walker Buehler | 3.2 | 25.0 | -3.0 ▼ | Can he break into the top tier at this rate? Doesn't seem so |
| 15 | -6 | 22.0 | 3 | Luis Castillo | 1.1 | 28.0 | -6.0 ▼ | Early returns not there, hold nose and push into May |
| 16 | 6 | 21.0 | 3 | Joe Musgrove | 7.6 | 16.0 | 5.0 ▲ | He's good, not .163 BABIP good; keep 2 feet on the ground |
| 17 | 2 | 21.0 | 3 | Jose Berrios | 5.9 | 19.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 18 | 0 | 19.5 | 3 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 3.4 | 19.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 19 | -3 | 18.5 | 4 | Kenta Maeda | 3.1 | 21.0 | -2.5 ▼ | Stumbling out of the gate, but ~.400 BABIP is goofy |
| 20 | -5 | 18.5 | 4 | Blake Snell | 1.7 | 22.0 | -3.5 ▼ | |
| 21 | -1 | 16.5 | 4 | Zack Wheeler | 2.4 | 17.5 | -1.0 ▼ | |
| 22 | 1 | 16.0 | 4 | Jack Flaherty | 2.6 | 15.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 23 | 3 | 15.0 | 4 | Dylan Bundy | 2.2 | 13.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 24 | 3 | 14.0 | 4 | Zack Greinke | 1.4 | 12.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Keeps on producing, steady SP3 |
| 25 | 0 | 14.0 | 4 | Kyle Hendricks | -3.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Thrashed by ATL, 11.3% BB rate is 2x career 5.4%. Breathe |
| 26 | 2 | 13.0 | 4 | Zac Gallen | 1.5 | 11.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Uncharacteristic walks but still big Ks as he builds back up |
| 27 | 2 | 12.0 | 4 | Kevin Gausman | 3.8 | 11.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 28 | 2 | 11.0 | 5 | Jesus Luzardo | 1.1 | 10.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Threw on his glasses, looked like a stud. Ok, let's go |
| 29 | 2 | 11.0 | 5 | Ian Anderson | 0.7 | 9.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Still encouraged by peripherals but needs to spark it |
| 30 | 8 | 10.0 | 5 | Marcus Stroman | 3.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Middling Ks are only complaint, looks sharp otherwise |
| 31 | 1 | 9.5 | 5 | Sonny Gray | 0.2 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Returned on Saturday, some bad luck and rust but 6 Ks |
| 32 | 2 | 9.5 | 5 | Charlie Morton | 4.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 33 | 6 | 9.5 | 5 | Sandy Alcantara | 5.7 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 34 | 7 | 9.5 | 5 | Zach Eflin | 2.8 | 8.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 35 | 11 | 9.0 | 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 0.5 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 3 starts, 3 wins, whiffs with few walks; this arm isn't dead |
| 36 | 9 | 9.0 | 5 | Tyler Mahle | 2.6 | 8.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 37 | 0 | 9.0 | 5 | Pablo Lopez | 2.8 | 9.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 38 | -3 | 8.5 | 5 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.4 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 39 | -3 | 8.5 | 5 | Frankie Montas | 1.2 | 9.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 40 | 8 | 8.5 | 5 | Aaron Civale | 1.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 ▲ | |
| 41 | 8 | 8.5 | 5 | Julio Urias | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.5 ▲ | Few worries that he's best as RP, but 11-K outing raises brows |
| 42 | 15 | 8.0 | 6 | Dustin May | 2.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 ▲ | |
| 43 | -10 | 8.0 | 6 | Zach Plesac | 1.8 | 9.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Worrisome April here, at least walks staying low |
| 44 | 6 | 8.0 | 6 | Freddy Peralta | 3.6 | 4.5 | 3.5 ▲ | Please pull the BBs back just a tad and I'll exhale |
| 45 | -3 | 8.0 | 6 | Triston McKenzie | 0.3 | 8.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 46 | 1 | 8.0 | 6 | Shohei Ohtani | 0.8 | 6.5 | 1.5 ▲ | Has insane pitches but inconsistent control; blame blister? |
| 47 | -7 | 6.5 | 7 | Chris Paddack | 3.3 | 8.5 | -2.0 ▼ | |
| 48 | 3 | 5.5 | 7 | Cristian Javier | 2.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 ▲ | Building up his arm at alt site, looked great to begin '21 |
| 49 | 3 | 5.0 | 7 | Michael Pineda | 3.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 50 | 3 | 4.5 | 7 | Jordan Montgomery | -0.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 51 | 7 | 4.5 | 7 | Trevor Rogers | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 ▲ | The legend grows with 7 shutout IP, 8 Ks; Only 1 BB is big |
| 52 | 9 | 4.0 | 7 | John Means | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 53 | 10 | 4.0 | 7 | Dinelson Lamet | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 ▲ | He's back...and he's gone. Forearm tightness, ugh |
| 54 | 13 | 4.0 | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 7.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 ▲ | Attacking the zone more with strong results |
| 55 | 13 | 4.0 | 7 | Sean Manaea | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 ▲ | |
| 56 | -13 | 4.0 | 7 | Marco Gonzales | -1.4 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| 57 | -13 | 4.0 | 7 | Patrick Corbin | -2.1 | 8.0 | -4.0 ▼ | |
| 58 | -4 | 4.0 | 7 | German Marquez | 1.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 59 | -4 | 2.0 | 7 | Jose Urquidy | 4.9 | 4.0 | -2.0 ▼ | Didn't look right at Coors, willing to write off the cold/Coors |
| 60 | -1 | 3.5 | 8 | Yusei Kikuchi | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 61 | 5 | 3.0 | 8 | Andrew Heaney | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 62 | 24 | 3.0 | 8 | Carlos Rodon | 3.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 ▲ | No-hitters are nice; stayed healthy in next outing too |
| 63 | 11 | 2.5 | 8 | Matthew Boyd | 5.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 64 | -2 | 2.5 | 8 | Chris Bassitt | 1.4 | 3.0 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 65 | -9 | 2.5 | 8 | Jameson Taillon | 1.4 | 4.0 | -1.5 ▼ | |
| 66 | 3 | 2.0 | 8 | Brady Singer | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 67 | 5 | 2.0 | 8 | Taijuan Walker | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 68 | 5 | 2.0 | 8 | Dane Dunning | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 69 | -9 | 2.0 | 9 | Dallas Keuchel | -0.1 | 3.5 | -1.5 ▼ | Low strikeouts mean those ratios need to be pristine |
| 70 | 0 | 1.5 | 9 | Corey Kluber | -1.7 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Still flashes of old but command simply isn't there; too rusty |
| 71 | 0 | 1.5 | 9 | Ryan Yarbrough | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Successful "bulk relief" outing, 5 IP w/ 1 ER and the win |
| 72 | -7 | 1.5 | 9 | Zach Davies | 0.2 | 2.5 | -1.0 ▼ | More BBs than Ks so far, ERs too; oof |
| 73 | 19 | 1.5 | 9 | Steven Matz | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | Incredible early results, can he stay healthy throwing slider? |
| 74 | 1 | 1.5 | 9 | Dylan Cease | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 75 | -- | 1.5 | 9 | Huascar Ynoa | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | 6 ER vs. CHC hurts, but 22yo with 10-K gem before that |
| 76 | 2 | 1.5 | 9 | Casey Mize | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.5 ▲ | |
| 77 | 21 | 1.5 | 9 | Jon Gray | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | |
| 78 | -1 | 1.5 | 9 | Tarik Skubal | -1.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 79 | 5 | 1.5 | 9 | Alex Cobb | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 ▲ | That splitter is back to intrigue status |
| 80 | -4 | 1.5 | 9 | Jake Odorizzi | -0.6 | 1.5 | 0.0 ▬ | Very rusty out of the gate; monitor progress from a distance |
| 81 | -2 | 1.0 | 10 | Griffin Canning | -1.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 82 | -2 | 1.0 | 10 | Matt Shoemaker | -2.2 | 1.5 | -0.5 ▼ | |
| 83 | -1 | 1.0 | 10 | Adbert Alzolay | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 84 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | JT Brubaker | 2.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | 2 strong starts, 2 wins since dim '21 debut, draws DET next |
| 85 | 14 | 1.0 | 10 | Danny Duffy | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 86 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | Kyle Gibson | 5.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Only 1 earned, 10 baserunners allowed over last 15 IP |
| 87 | 1 | 1.0 | 10 | J.A. Happ | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 88 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | David Peterson | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Much better in rematch v. PHI with 10-K QS |
| 89 | 5 | 1.0 | 10 | Jakob Junis | 3.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 90 | -9 | 1.0 | 10 | Brad Keller | -1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 91 | -6 | 1.0 | 10 | Adam Wainwright | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 92 | -3 | 1.0 | 10 | Deivi Garcia | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | Domingo Germán will try again but Yanks need a spark |
| 93 | -3 | 1.0 | 10 | Tanner Houck | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 94 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | Kohei Arihara | 3.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Two straight wins with 11 scoreless innings |
| 95 | 0 | 1.0 | 10 | Mike Minor | -0.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 96 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | Michael Wacha | 3.6 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Blanked Yankees over 6 IP w/ 9 Ks, at KC next |
| 97 | 0 | 1.0 | 10 | Justus Sheffield | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 98 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | Josh Fleming | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | Only 5 Ks in 10 1/3 IP but same plus control as shown in '20 |
| 99 | -- | 1.0 | 10 | Taylor Widener | 2.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 ▲ | |
| 100 | -4 | 1.0 | 10 | Chris Flexen | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ | |
| 101 | -14 | 1.0 | 10 | Justin Dunn | -0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 ▬ |
Quick Notes on Movers
-We can all accept bad days from great arms, but Lucas Giolito has to slide a bit to reflect his horrible last outing with seven earned in just one frame. He had one atrocious start last year (3 2/3 IP, 7 ER) and went on to carry many fantasy teams to victory. This is a simple (but painful) reminder that he's still behind that true top-tier elite grouping.
-It's impossible to ignore the rise of Corbin Burnes. The sample size isn't there yet to anoint him as a true SP1, but boy, he's pitching like one so far. It's incredible to have zero walks yet also limit the damage on balls in play, though the .171 BABIP displays some luck sprinkled on top of the skill.
-Luis Castillo has now turned in three clunkers and one strong start this April, with the good day coming against Pittsburgh. It's frightful to see that lowly 7.71 K/9 given his 10.67 and 11.44 marks from '19 and '20, respectively. His fastball is getting tagged, as is the changeup, leaving us all hoping he corrects as the weather warms up. I wouldn't be selling low.
-We've yet to see Blake Snell go six innings and aside from QS-leaguers being left out in the cold, failing to work late into the game makes securing wins that much tougher. His 0-0 record through four starts at least has 24 punchouts in just 15 1/3 IP, but 10 walks and deep counts illustrate the problem here. There's no reason for SD not to save bullets as they make their philosophy with Snell pretty clear.
-Marcus Stroman is 3-0 with a beautiful 0.89 ERA/0.69 WHIP through four starts, quieting any doubt that he'd be rusty after missing 2020. Only 11 strikeouts in 20 1/3 IP may raise some eyebrows, though a 10.7% swinging-strike rate would be a career-high mark for him. I trust it'll even out, but you'll also stomach the evening out of his .175 BABIP and 95.6% strand rate.
-Trevor Rogers continues gunning for NL Rookie of the Year as he collected his second win of 2021 thanks to seven shutout frames. Eight more strikeouts give him 31 in just 23 IP, with the bigger storyline (for me) being his first one-walk start. He now has a 2.34 FIP and 3.33 xFIP behind his 1.64 ERA as many of you click around to buy a shirsey of his. It's promising, just be sure not to set your expectations too high before we've even hit May!
-One can't help but smile regarding Carlos Rodón's re-emergence, even if that HBP on the toe was weaksauce and he deserved a perfecto instead of the no-no. Alas, we press on and celebrate that his health remained after working all nine innings for his third victory in three games on Wednesday. Only one earned and eight strikeouts over five innings are good, but five walks aren't. Still, you'll take the overall picture being painted here.
-There is a trio of struggling pitchers who share a similar mold, as Kyle Hendricks, Dallas Keuchel, and Zach Davies all appear to have lost their usual command. Obviously, expectations for Hendricks are higher, yet he's sporting a poor 12/7 K/BB ratio with five homers allowed through 13 IP. Keuchel just had a walk-free outing but with only one strikeout, aiding a mere 10/7 K/BB ratio himself. Then there's Davies, who has walked three in each of his starts. His nine free passes eclipse the eight strikeouts, leaving much to be desired after 2020's success. There's something in that Chicago air, it seems.
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