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With so much roster turnover in the NFL each year, it can be especially difficult to predict outcomes in opening-week matchups. With last season’s data being the latest available, it has to be weighed against the perceived impact of roster and coaching changes. This is often an exercise in futility in what is a wildly unpredictable sport.
As such, there are bound to be a few misses in any prediction column. Last week, players such as Melvin Gordon III, Amari Cooper, and James Robinson made me eat my words after labeling them busts. Notable hits included Mike Evans, Le’Veon Bell, DeVante Parker, Leonard Fournette, Sterling Shepard, and Cam Akers.
We’ll try to keep the momentum rolling as we scope out which players to avoid based on this week’s matchups. Below are my top-10 busts for Week 2:
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Melvin Gordon vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Melvin Gordon appeared in my bust column last week and he burned me by totaling 86 yards and adding a touchdown. Initial concerns with Gordon revolved around him splitting the workload with fellow runner Phillip Lindsay. Thanks to Lindsay leaving injured mid-game, Gordon took over the familiar bell-cow role that he held with the Chargers. Lindsay is expected to miss this week’s game, but I’m still fading Gordon after watching the Pittsburgh Steelers absolutely decimate any attempt at a running game made by the Giants in Week 1.
Saquon Barkley was held to six rushing yards on fifteen carries a week ago and was stuffed several times behind the line of scrimmage for negative plays. Barkley was able to save his fantasy day through his involvement in the passing game, which is a skillset shared by Gordon. However, Gordon had only eight receiving yards in his Broncos debut and Drew Lock did not often utilize his running backs in the passing game in his limited sample last season. Therefore, fantasy managers should not bank on Gordon’s receiving production until shown otherwise. The Steelers are a team to avoid on the ground, as they were top-five at limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2019. Gordon’s arrow is pointing up, but he should be stapled to benches this week.
Carson Wentz vs. Los Angeles Rams
Carson Wentz was sacked eight times in the Eagles’ season-opening loss to Washington. Unfortunately for Wentz, Aaron Donald comes to town in Week 2. The Rams’ pass rush contributed to holding the high-octane Cowboys’ offense to a meager 17 points last week, matching the Eagles’ output in their loss to the underdog Washington Football Team.
DeSean Jackson was on a limited snap count and while reports say he will be more involved each week, we do not know the extent of his usage in Week 2. With Jalen Ramsey potentially shadowing Jackson, it may not matter, especially if Wentz cannot hold the ball long enough to throw downfield. The Rams were the 11th-toughest team on quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points allowed a year ago and held Dak Prescott to a QB19 finish in Week 1. With so many viable quarterback options available, GMs should turn elsewhere this week.
James Conner vs. Denver Broncos
James Conner’s issue has always been health, as he has been productive for fantasy whenever he has remained on the field for an entire game. Unfortunately, that has not happened often. It didn’t happen last week, as Conner was forced out early with an ankle injury and watched from the sidelines as backup Benny Snell Jr. ran for over 100 yards. There were rumblings during camp that Snell had dropped weight and looked like a much-improved back. That proved true in the opener, as Snell looked noticeably faster and ran hard, albeit against a weak Giants’ defense. The Steelers' confidence in Conner could and should be deteriorating.
Managers who roll the dice on Conner this week risk him leaving early due to injury even if he does start and it is not out of the realm of possibility that Snell either starts or eats into Conner’s workload. Head Coach Mike Tomlin has always used a workhorse running back, but Conner has proven he cannot hold up when handed that type of volume. Snell is not a strong pass-catcher, meaning he does not provide the type of three-down skillset required by Tomlin. This was evident in Week 1, as Jaylen Samuels saw the field on third downs.
Fantasy managers rostering Conner should brace themselves for Snell to handle early-down work with Conner splitting carries and taking over on third downs, leaving both as risky flex options. The Broncos gave up only 19.1 fantasy points per game to running backs in 2019, ranking 10th in that metric, and held Derrick Henry to only 3.74 yards per carry in Week 1. With uncertainty over his workload and a difficult matchup on deck, James Conner is primed to disappoint in Week 2.
DeVante Parker vs. Buffalo Bills
DeVante Parker was listed as a bust in Week 1 due to his balky hamstring and his matchup with elite shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore. This week is no different, as Parker has been limited in practice due to his lingering hamstring issue and is poised to do battle with Bills’ cornerback Tre’Davious White. White leads all cornerbacks in passer rating allowed since 2017 and the Bills were 4th-toughest against wide receivers in fantasy last season.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off a rough game that included no touchdown passes and three interceptions, and the task does not get much easier in Week 2. Parker saw only four targets a week ago and will need increased volume this week in order to justify a spot in starting lineups. There should be better days ahead for Parker, but his slow start to the season is set to continue against the Bills.
Sony Michel vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Patriots’ Week 2 matchup is one that likely would have suited Sony Michel in previous seasons. That was when the Patriots’ offense was led by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and not dual-threat quarterback Cam Newton. It was also when the Seahawks employed a run-heavy scheme that differed from the team’s opening-week approach against Atlanta.
Newton carried the ball twice more than Michel in Week 1 and had more than double the rushing yards. Even more concerningly, Newton had two rushing touchdowns. Michel did find the end zone once, but it is clear that Newton is going to eat into Michel’s scoring opportunities significantly this season. James White handles receiving duties in the Patriots’ backfield and Rex Burkhead saw only three fewer rushing attempts than Michel in the opener. With Michel fighting with Newton for goal-line opportunities and splitting reps with two other running backs, his floor is extremely low.
There has been speculation all offseason about whether the Seahawks would finally unleash Russell Wilson and put the offense in his hands rather than committing to the ground game as heavily as recent seasons. In Week 1 Wilson topped 300 yards and finished with four passing touchdowns. If the Seahawks attack through the air again this week, it could force Michel to the sidelines in favor of better pass-catching options. Michel’s stock is slipping, and he enters Week 2 as a touchdown-or-bust option.
Adrian Peterson vs. Green Bay Packers
Adrian Peterson posted 114 yards from scrimmage in his return to the NFC North. The fact that he was afforded seventeen touches after joining the Lions so recently is a promising sign for his outlook moving forward. Those touches can be partially attributed to the Lions holding a lead over the Bears for the majority of the game, before melting down in the fourth quarter. D’Andre Swift operated as the third-down back and will be relied on as a pass-catcher if the Lions fall behind.
Aaron Rodgers was a man on a mission in Week 1 as he lit up a suspect Vikings secondary. Rodgers appears motivated after watching his team pass on drafting receiving help in order to select Rodgers’ eventual replacement. The Lions’ secondary was a weak spot last season and lost shutdown corner Darius Slay. While the team added third overall pick Jeff Okudah and veteran Desmond Trufant, Okudah has yet to suit up for the team and Trufant looks likely to miss this week’s game. Justin Coleman is also on IR, leaving the Lions thin in the secondary as they travel to Lambeau Field.
The Lions falling behind in this game could lead to Peterson being phased out of the offense due to his limited skill set. Dalvin Cook was held to only 50 yards rushing in Week 1 against the Packers as the Vikings were forced to play from behind on the scoreboard, and the Lions could be faced with a similar game script. Fantasy managers likely weren’t relying on Peterson as a starter heading into Week 1 and should pivot to other options this week.
Brandin Cooks vs. Baltimore Ravens
Brandin Cooks was a popular target in drafts this season as fantasy managers debated which Texans’ wide receiver would emerge as Deshaun Watson’s number one option following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. While the entire passing offense looked out of sync against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Week 1, Cooks mustered only two catches for twenty yards. Dealing with a quad injury that had him looking iffy for Week 1 to begin with, Cooks now faces an elite Ravens’ defense at less than 100% health.
The Ravens completely shut down the Browns last week, holding Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to a combined eight catches for 83 yards. The Ravens were the second-toughest team on quarterbacks last season from a fantasy perspective and were thirteenth against wide receivers. Will Fuller V commanded ten targets last week and appeared to be Watson’s first read. Further, Fuller moved all around the formation, even lining up in the slot, and should enjoy a more consistent target share if that utilization continues. Cooks faces an uphill battle this week in terms of health, targets, and matchup, and should be avoided wherever possible.
Mike Gesicki vs. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position in 2019 and held Chris Herndon to a TE23 finish a week ago. The Bills’ terrific safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde does not make life easy for opposing tight ends. While Gesicki is lining up mostly in the slot and barely even being utilized as a traditional tight end, the outlook for Week 2 is not promising.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick performed terribly against the Patriots’ top-notch defense in Week 1 and faces a similarly tough opponent this week, as the Bills were the third-toughest defense for fantasy quarterbacks to face last season. The Bills allowed less than 36 yards per game to tight ends last year, meaning fantasy managers will be banking on a touchdown if starting Gesicki. Considering Fitzpatrick has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season and this game is expected to be a low-scoring affair, fantasy GMs would be wise to browse their waive wire for options with more upside.
Darius Slayton vs. Chicago Bears
Darius Slayton put up a nice stat line in Week 1, following up a mini-breakout campaign as a rookie last year. The outlook for this week isn’t as bright, however, as he faces a Bears’ defense that ranked fifth against wide receivers and fourth against quarterbacks in 2019. The Giants boast the NFL’s 20th-best offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, and have to contend with the likes of Khalil Mack this week. If the Bears’ pass rush wins the battle against the Giants’ offensive line, it could provide limited time for quarterback Daniel Jones to look downfield to Slayton.
Golden Tate did not suit up last week and has a shot to play against the Bears. Tate led all Giants wide receivers in target share last season and would complicate the target opportunity for Slayton. Further, Tate’s slot role should be utilized frequently in order to get the ball out of Daniel Jones’s hand quickly. With the Giants employing a multitude of underneath options, such as Tate, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley, Slayton could be the odd man out this week. Slayton looked great in his season debut and did so against an elite Steelers’ defense, but with five legitimate pass-catching options fighting for targets, it could lead to difficulty in predicting which Giants’ receiver to play on a week-to-week basis. Those brave enough to start Slayton against the Steelers were rewarded, but GMs should be hesitant to double down on a player who has not yet reached must-start status.
Noah Fant vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Noah Fant looked great in his season debut against the Titans. With Courtland Sutton out, Fant and rookie Jerry Jeudy operated as the top weapons in the passing game. Fant displayed chemistry with quarterback Drew Lock and looked athletic and dangerous in the open field. Sutton has a chance to return this week, however, and Fant faces a Steelers’ defense that held fellow tight end Evan Engram to only nine receiving yards a week ago.
The Steelers were stout against tight ends last season, ranking 11th against the position in fantasy points surrendered. The Steelers were also the sixth-stingiest defense against fantasy quarterbacks a season ago. Engram’s TE37 finish from Week 1 provides a glimpse of the floor that exists and Fant’s ceiling would appear more limited than usual in what is expected to be a low-scoring matchup. The Steelers’ offense was visibly rusty against a weak Giants’ defense and the Broncos managed only 216 passing yards against an Adoree’ Jackson-less Titans’ defense. Fant should continue to be involved and remain a serious breakout candidate this season, but expectations should be lowered in a matchup that has both his ceiling and floor looking shaky.
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