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Mark McWhirter gives his top 10 busts and players to avoid at RB or WR in Week 1 of the 2020 NFL fantasy football season.
Week 1 is finally here, and we can only hope that we get sixteen more without interruption. Fantasy drafts have now concluded, and fantasy GMs are eager to watch their early-round studs carry them to a Week 1 victory along the march towards a title.
However, draft capital should not be the only factor weighed in week 1 start/sit decisions and there are several big-name players who are not as safe in their opening matchups as fantasy managers may hope.
Here are my top-ten busts for week 1 of the 2020 fantasy football season.
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Le’Veon Bell vs. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game last season and only gave up nine rushing touchdowns, which was 10th-fewest in the NFL. The Bills held Bell to a 3.06 yards per carry mark in two 2019 matchups, indicating that volume will be important for Bell to succeed this week. Frank Gore was brought on board by old friend Adam Gase this offseason and Gore actually handled 35 more carries than Kenyan Drake under Gase in 2018, despite Gore missing two games. Gore has toted the rock at least 156 times in every season since his rookie year, which would be an average of 9.75 carries per game over a full schedule.
Adam Gase running backs have averaged only 25.8 touches per game the past two seasons, meaning something will have to give. Either Gore accepts a much lesser role than he is accustomed to, or Bell is not going to see the volume required for success in this offense. Adam Gase-led offenses have finished no better than 26th in total scoring the past three seasons and a tough road matchup with a divisional opponent does not seem like a get-right spot. Treat Bell as a low-end RB2/flex play this week and recognize that his ceiling is extremely limited in this matchup.
DeVante Parker vs. New England Patriots
DeVante Parker is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury and gets a matchup with superstar cornerback Stephon Gilmore this week. Parker roasted Gilmore in week 17 last year but was shutout in their first meeting. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick locked onto Parker once Preston Williams went down last season and Parker actually finished as the WR2 from week 3 on. Prior to Williams’ injury, Parker averaged 6.5 targets per game. Following Williams’ injury, Parker averaged 9.5 targets per game. Williams is back now, and the Dolphins figure to run the ball more often than they did last season.
The Patriots have had some notable opt-outs on the defensive side of the ball but should still prove a formidable foe. Considering the Dolphins’ upgraded defense and the Patriots’ new-look offense, this could end up a low-scoring affair. At less than 100% health and matched up against an elite corner in a game that is not expected to produce fireworks, Parker should be faded where possible.
Amari Cooper vs. Los Angeles Rams
Amari Cooper has been fairly boom-or-bust throughout his career and only finished as a top-24 wide receiver in 50% of his games last season. Despite finishing as the WR9, Cooper ranked 17th in top-24 finishes at the position. Cooper is not a target hog, having finished 36th and 28th in targets per game the past two seasons. Rather, Cooper has been efficient with his targets and has managed frequent trips to the end zone along the way.
Those traits are unlikely to be displayed in week one, as Cooper faces the potential of shadow coverage from stud cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey shut Cooper down to the tune of one catch on two targets for 19 yards in their lone matchup a year ago. The Cowboys certainly do not have to force the issue, as Michael Gallup and first-round rookie CeeDee Lamb provide talented alternatives. With Ezekiel Elliott also providing an elite offensive threat, there is no need for the Cowboys to challenge Ramsey if he does stick on Cooper. If you drafted Cooper, you probably have to play him. He should be viewed as more of a risky WR2 or flex play, however, and benching him should not be out of the question if you roster an alternative with a favorable matchup.
Cam Akers vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Los Angeles Rams boast the NFL’s 25th-best offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). While rookie runner Cam Akers is accustomed to running behind a subpar offensive line, having done so in impressive fashion at Florida State, the NFL is different. The Cowboys’ revamped defensive line profiles as a strength heading into the season and the Rams may struggle to protect quarterback Jared Goff or open up holes for Akers to run through. Further complicating the situation is the messy backfield situation that is difficult to decipher without having had any game action to evaluate.
Malcolm Brown is listed as the starter and was taking first-team reps in camp. Darrell Henderson Jr. was a third-round pick a season ago and is practicing in full after being limited in camp due to injury. It is possible that all three backs are involved until one emerges. Akers is the most talented of the trio and the safest bet to finish the season with the most fantasy points. Fantasy managers would be wise to exercise patience with the rookie running back, however, and allow this situation to play itself out for at least one week.
Sterling Shepard vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were tough on quarterbacks a season ago, posting top-five grades in both pass rush and pass coverage, according to PFF. This is unlikely to change significantly, as the Steelers roster one of the league’s most talented defenses on paper. If quarterback Daniel Jones struggles in this matchup, it does not bode well for his pass catchers. Sterling Shepard generated some considerable buzz throughout camp for apparently looking the best of any Giants’ receiver, but the fact remains that Golden Tate was the clear number one target after returning from injury last season and Darius Slayton enjoyed a mini-breakout campaign as a rookie.
Factoring in that tight end Evan Engram and running back Saquon Barkley should also legitimately be in the conversation to lead the Giants in targets this season and you have the makings of a five-way target split that will limit the ceiling of everyone involved. At no point last season were five of these core offensive players healthy at the same time, so we do not have a good idea of how the targets will be distributed with everyone suited up at once. There is an opportunity for value this season in this offense, but this matchup is not the time to bet on someone emerging.
Melvin Gordon III vs. Tennessee Titans
Melvin Gordon joined the ex-rival Broncos this offseason and starts his 2020 season against a Titans’ defense that, while improved through the offseason additions of Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley, was middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the running back position in 2019. Reports from camp are that Gordon and fellow running back Phillip Lindsay are expected to share the workload more evenly than originally anticipated. This complicates Gordon’s outlook and requires a wait-and-see approach to determine if Gordon is the bell-cow many fantasy managers thought they were selecting at draft time. Fortunately, Gordon is likely to be both the goal-line back and the pass-catching back, and the Titans allowed the fourth-most receptions to the running back position a year ago.
Drew Lock did not frequently target the running back position in his limited opportunity as a starter last season and we do not know the potential of this offense until we have a better read on Lock’s progression. Number-one receiving option Courtland Sutton is banged up, which should cause problems for the offense as a whole and limit the team’s scoring opportunities in this matchup. With the Titans' tendency to slow the game down, limited plays equal limited fantasy points. Von Miller’s injury casts doubt over the Broncos’ defense and could lead to a negative game script for Gordon this week. With questions around the workload distribution and Lock’s ability to elevate the Broncos’ offense, fantasy managers would be wise to view Gordon as a low-end RB2 or flex play this week and evaluate further after viewing Gordon’s usage.
Leonard Fournette vs. New Orleans Saints
Many are excited about the prospect of Leonard Fournette leading the charge on the ground for a Tom Brady-led offense. After all, Fournette totaled 1,152 rushing yards and 522 receiving yards in Jacksonville last season. Caution should be exercised, however, especially in week one. Fournette only recently joined the Buccaneers and requires time to learn the full playbook and become familiarized with the offense. There had been considerable hype surrounding Ronald Jones II as he approached the 2020 season as the presumptive starter, and head coach Bruce Arians claims that Jones is still the lead runner in this backfield.
Arians can hardly be believed at this point, considering his history of shenanigans when speaking about his running backs, but Fournette is not going to be the workhorse right out of the gates. At best, this is a split on the ground between Fournette and Jones, and at worst Fournette is the clear second option until he has more time to integrate himself into the offense. With LeSean McCoy likely factoring in on third downs, this backfield could be a headache early in the season. No team faced fewer rushing attempts than the Saints last season and they were successful in doing so, having held opposing rushers to a meager 3.65 yards per carry. This is not a defense that is vulnerable to rushing attacks. Stuck in a committee and facing a negative matchup, Fournette should be sat on fantasy benches for the time being.
David Montgomery vs. Detroit Lions
David Montgomery is practicing in full despite being on the early end of the projected 2-4-week recovery timeline for his groin injury. While this is technically good news for fantasy managers, it may tempt some into starting the Bears’ runner this week. It is possible that Montgomery is back to 100 percent, but the Bears are extremely thin at running back and could very well be rushing Montgomery back too early, thereby putting him at risk for aggravating his injury. If Montgomery receives his regular volume, he will be at risk of leaving the game early and burning those who start him.
If the Bears play it smart and ease him back, fantasy managers will still be burned. There is certainly an opportunity for success in this matchup, as the Lions lost Damon Harrison and have not adequately replaced his run-stuffing production. However, with no teams on bye in week one, fantasy managers should have options that carry less risk. With Tarik Cohen already secured in his pass-catching role, any significant reduction in carries for Montgomery would prove catastrophic.
James Robinson vs. Indianapolis Colts
We’ve gone from Leonard Fournette to Ryquell Armstead to Devine Ozigbo and have finally settled on James Robinson at the top of the Jaguars’ running back depth chart. The question is, does it really matter? The Jaguars have scored only ten rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. Yes, you read that right. This team enters the season with PFF’s worst-ranked offensive line, meaning Robinson has his work cut out from him as an undrafted free agent on a team that is not expected to be in favorable game scripts very often.
Furthermore, Chris Thompson is entrenched as the team’s pass-catching back for however long his body holds up. A lack of touchdown opportunity leaves Robinson with a low ceiling and a lack of pass-catching opportunity leaves him with an equally low floor. The Colts are heavy favorites in this game and are likely to grind out the clock by leaning on an elite offensive line and talented running back group. This game has the potential to get away from the Jaguars quickly, as the Jags’ defense appears a bottom-barrel unit on paper. Expect a heavy dose of Chris Thompson as the team plays catch up, leaving Robinson standing on the sidelines with a limited workload.
Mike Evans vs. New Orleans Saints
Look, you aren’t benching Mike Evans pretty much ever, unless due to injury. Unfortunately, he happens to be banged up right now and is an apparent game-time decision. With the Buccaneers playing the second slate of Sunday games, fantasy managers will be limited in their pivot options should Evans not suit up against the Saints. Even if Evans does play, there is reason to worry this week. Evans has averaged just 8.92 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues over his last six matchups with the Saints. Over that time, Evans has scored only one touchdown.
Marshon Lattimore is a big reason for this. Last year, Lattimore held Evans to a goose egg line of three targets for no receptions in the first meeting between these teams and Evans was healthy at that time. The Buccaneers added Rob Gronkowski this offseason to go along with last season’s fantasy WR2, Chris Godwin. Therefore, if Evans is limited at all, the team has capable weapons to pick up the slack. Evans is currently dealing with a hamstring issue after a hamstring injury was responsible for prematurely ending his 2019 season. The Bucs are going to want to play it safe and not risk losing Evans for an extended period of time. The Saints’ secondary improved with the addition of Janoris Jenkins, meaning even if Evans does suit up, he will be faced with tight coverage no matter which cornerback he lines up against. Evans is too good to sit if healthy, but fantasy managers should closely monitor updates as Sunday approaches and begin working on a contingency plan. If Evans remains listed as a game-time decision on gameday, fantasy GMs should play it safe and bench the star wideout rather than take such level of risk for a player facing a tough matchup.
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