RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 240
CURRENT ADP: ~261 overall
ANALYSIS: Pham stole 14 bases last season but has a history of good wheels, stealing 25 in both 2017 and 2019 and also swiping 15 in 2018. He stole six in just 31 games during the COVID-shortened season, so it's fair to say that Pham has had essentially a 15 stolen base floor over the last five years. When Pham stole 25 bases in 2019, his sprint speed was 28.7 ft/sec and his home-to-first time was 4.38, which was good for 252nd in the league. In 2021, his sprint speed was 27.8 ft/sec and a home-to-first time of 4.54, so he does seem to be slowing down a step, which could also be the result of multiple soft tissue injuries over the years.
Another reason I like Pham is because of his ability to help you in other categories. Pham has tremendous plate discipline with a 13.9% walk rate last year and a 12.5% rate for his career to go along with a strikeout rate that hasn't been above 23% since 2018. He's also been a .265 career hitter, and I urge you to not let the .229 batting average from last year fool you. Pham recorded a career-high 10% barrel rate last year to go along with a 46.7% hard-hit rate. The hits just didn't fall for him. He also upped his flyball rate and dropped his groundball rate by 14% from 2020 and by 5% from 2019. That's part of the reason he hit 15 home runs despite playing in a good pitcher's park. While many people are drafting Robbie Grossman around pick 180 for the hope that he puts up a 15/15 season, I think you are just as likely to get 15/15 from Pham but with a higher batting average going way later. You're taking a risk drafting him before he has a set team, but he's been a full-time player since 2017 so I expect him to sign somewhere he is going to start.
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