PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for The Masters (Round 1)

Today's PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the 2023 Masters (Round 1) by Ian McNeill. Use his golf over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for The Masters (Round 1). The year's first Major Championship is finally upon us, and PrizePicks has an extensive selection of props for us to take advantage of!

PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Augusta National Golf Club for the 87th edition of The Masters. Not only have some of the best players we see week-in, week-out on the PGA Tour gotten the invite to Augusta, but 2o23 also marks the first Masters iteration to include golfers from the Saudi-backed LIV Tour. This convergence of talent from two different tours will only serve to increase the prestige of these Major Championships, and I can guarantee that there will be some storylines (and hopefully some juicy weekend pairings), as the week unfolds. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, April 6.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Collin Morikawa MORE than 10.5 Fairways Hit

As I talked about in my official betting preview for RotoBaller, the one thing Augusta National does afford players is forgiveness off the tee. Behind only Kapalua, The Masters features the second widest fairways on the PGA Tour schedule and conceded a driving accuracy percentage of over 71% to the field here last year.

Collin Morikawa, however, is far from average when it comes to driving the ball in the fairway. Morikawa ranks third on the entire PGA Tour in terms of driving accuracy in 2023 and has never ranked worse than 30th in any of the 4 seasons he's played professionally.

At Augusta National, Morikawa's driver has been just as dialed-in; gaining a combined 5.5 strokes to the field OTT over his last 8 rounds, and surpassing this line of 10.5 fairways on seven of eight occasions.

The prevailing narrative that Augusta suits a left-to-right ball flight is a thing of the past, as the course has moved tee boxes further and further back to protect against added distance, they've also taken away a lot of the shot-shaping requirements we saw in years past. Morikawa's cut shot has proven to play just fine here through the years, and I anticipate him breezing past this line on Thursday afternoon.

Tom Kim MORE than 72 Strokes

It's pretty common knowledge that Augusta National isn't the friendliest of confines for first-timers. No debutant has won the event since 1979, and although we've had a few success stories from this uber-talented next generation (Will Zalatoris in 2021, Sungjae Im in 2020), the majority of first-timers find their opening week at Augusta to be more of a learning experience than a legitimate shot at contention (see: 2022 Cameron Young, Sam Burns).

This year's marquee debutant comes in the form of Tom Kim: a fresh-faced, 20-year-old Korean international that has already made waves on the PGA Tour by winning twice before his 21st birthday - a feat only matched by Tiger Woods himself.

However, as bullish as I am on Tom's ceiling long-term, if you were building a prototype player for Augusta National, Kim would be far from the mold you'd start with. As one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour in both Carry Distance and Distance to Apex, Kim typically relies on his driving accuracy and penetrating ball flight to manufacture length. That won't be a reliable strategy at Augusta National this week, as softer conditions due to recent rain and the into-the-grain methods in which the fairways are cut will all but eliminate rollout.

This lack of distance will inevitably lead to a ton of long irons into the Par 4s, and because Tom ranks outside the top 50 in Par 5 scoring, he'll have to rely on scoring on some of the most difficult sets of Par 3's and 4's on Tour. I'm not confident that he'll be able to overcome the lack of experience and an inefficient tee-to-green profile for the venue.

Scottie Scheffler MORE than 12.5 Greens in Regulation

My top pick to win this week is also the name rounding out my three-pack of PrizePicks plays this Thursday. Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation so far in 2023, and where the wetter conditions will hurt shorter hitters like Tom Kim, a softer version of Augusta National will inevitably help elite iron players attack a lot more flags as greens become a lot more receptive to incoming approaches.

Attempting to follow his Phoenix double with another title defense at Augusta, Scheffler comes into this year's Masters in even better ball-striking form than we saw in his meteoric rise last spring. He's gained strokes on approach in ten consecutive starts, and he's been the best total driver in this field over the last 24 rounds.

With an elite driver setting him up in Position A hole after hole, Scheffler should have plenty of opportunities to attack pins and set up plenty of birdie chances. He's the most dangerous man in the field in my opinion, and he tends to hit the ground running (third in R1 scoring average this season). I anticipate a real statement of intent from the World No. 1 on Thursday afternoon.

Other Recommendations

• Rory McIlroy LESS than 4.5 Shots - Hole 2
• Tom Kim LESS than Jordan Spieth - Birdies or Better Matchup
• Zach Johnson LESS than 36.5 Holes Played

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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