RADIO
It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Friday, May 6th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/6/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 p.m. Eastern, and 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
Playoff Series Context
Here is how the series today stand:
CAR @ BOS || CAR is up 2-0
TOR @ TAM || Series is 1-1
MIN @ STL || Series is 1-1
EDM @ LA || Series is 1-1
These particular series are hard to predict. I figure Boston will get a home win either tonight or the next game to avoid a sweep. In the other games, any team can win. Edmonton is the only favored road team by the sportsbooks.
NHL DFS Goalies
Mike Smith - DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Edmonton is the strongest favorite on the slate given they are the only road favorite on the slate. Smith is coming off a 30 save shutout last game. He had great games down the stretch heading into the playoffs, and while he does make some mistakes from time to time, he is likely to face a decent volume of shots and has a good chance to win the game. For a cash game, I'll take it.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.4K || FD $7.9K - FD cash play), Swayman (DK $7.9K || FD $7.3K), Husso (DK $7.6K || FD $7.7K), Campbell (DK $7.7K || FD $8.4K).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Connor McDavid- DK $9.0K || FD $10.0K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
In a vacuum, Auston Matthews is the spend-up with the highest ceiling, but playing in Tampa with a chance for Tampa to go up 2-1, I do not think that is the best spot for Matthews. McDavid is more likely to have a great game and a better spend-up option on this slat.e
Robert Thomas - DK $4.2K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Prior to the playoffs, Robert Thomas was a solid floor option for cash games. He scored 1.07 points per game and while he did not take many shots, getting over a point per game at his price is enough to return value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.2K || FD $10.2K), Draisaitl (DK $8.0K || FD $9.9K), Stamkos (DK $7.5K || FD $8.4K - Winger on FD), Bergeron (DK $6.7K || FD $8.4K), Eriksson Ek (DK $4.7K || FD $6.1K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
David Pastrnak- DK $7.2K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is going to be without Raatna and possibly Andersen as well. Pastrnak averages 4.4 shots on goal per game. Going up against a backup or third-string goalie could set up a nice game for Pastrnak here. If Kochetkov starts, I like this play. If Andersen or Raanta do suit up, I like it less and would pivot to one of the options below.
Kevin Fiala- DK $6.0K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
Kevin Fiala continues to be a bargain on the slate. He averages about a point per game and 3.2 shots on goal per game. Husso is a good goalie and Saint Louis is at home, but at this price, he doesn't have to break the slate to get to value on this slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $8.1K || FD $9.7K), Kaprizov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.9K), Marner (DK $7.8K || FD $9.4K), Kane (DK $6.2K || FD $7.5K), Kempe (DK $5.3K || FD $6.3K), Kyrou (DK $4.6K || FD $6.8K), Hall (DK $4.5K || FD $5.7K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Evan Bouchard - DK $4.9K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Evan Bouchard averages 2.54 shots on goal and 1.36 blocked shots per game. This is not a slate where there are many great spend-up options at defensemen. My approach is to find the two value defensemen that I believe in and to mostly build around my forwards on this slate. Spending up on a Hedman would be a good approach for a GPP.
Justin Faulk - DK $4.6K || FD $5.0K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Faulk is on the first power play and is priced at or under $5K. Minnesota is No. 3 in penalities per game and their penalty kill is No. 25 in the league. Faulk averages 2.22 shots on goal and blocks 1.35 shots per game too.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $7.0K || FD $7.6K - GPP), Nurse (DK $5.9K || FD $5.9K), Rielly (DK $5.4K || FD $6.5K), McAvoy (DK $4.8K || FD $6.1K), Edler (DK $3.9K || FD $4.1K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. Tampa, Saint Louis, and Edmonton I imagine will be the most popular. One leverage point would be to roster a goalie that goes against one of these opponents. Another good leverage point would be to stack against the popular goalie. That might include stacking Carolina or Los Angeles for example.
If playing in a small tournament, choose one leverage point. If playing in a larger tournament, choose two leverage points.
Some off the radar stacks I like are: Los Angeles 2, Minnesota 2, and Los Angeles PP1.
