RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Saturday, April 23rd, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/23/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 pm Eastern staggered to starting at 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Anton Forsberg - DK $7.7K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa has a home game against Montreal and with Filip Gustavsson starting last night, Anton Forsberg will likely get the start here. Ottawa is a home favorite, Forsberg is a solid goalie with a 19-17-4 record, 2.79 GAA, one shutout, and a .917 SV%. Ottawa allows the ninth most shots on goal in the league and we want a little bit of that so we can get saves. Give me an inexpensive goalie that is favored at home in a cash game all day. It is a highly variant position, so if I am going to get beat by bad variance, I at least want it to be in a situation where I have a lot of free cap space to spend on skaters.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Husso (DK $8.5K || FD $8.3K - GPP), Markstrom (DK $8.4K || FD $8.2K), Quick (DK $8.3K || FD $7.5K), Reimer (DK $7.8K || FD $7.4K), Stolarz (DK $7.7K || FD $7.2K - GPP), Demko (DK $7.5K || FD $7.6K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Josh Norris - DK $6.4K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Montreal allows the third-most shots on goal. I like Ottawa to score goals here throughout the night. Norris averages 0.84 points per game and 2.59 shots on goal per game. I like how Norris is priced relative to the rest of the field. It is hard to pay up for center on this slate.
Robert Thomas - DK $6.1K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Robert Thomas has been playing some outstanding hockey recently. He averages 1.10 points per game and just 1.58 shots on goal per game. Although last game he did attempt five shots on goal, typically he does not shoot the puck like that. He is much better as a high floor cash game play or someone to include in a pairing or stack on that first line or power play. Going against Arizona, the Blues are in a really good spot too.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Barkov (DK $9.2K || FD $9.7K - GPP), Stamkos (DK $7.2K || FD $7.9K - Winger on FD), Hertl (DK $5.9K || FD $6.2K), Stuetzle (DK $5.5K || FD $5.6K - Winger on FD), Seguin (DK $5.5K - Winger on DK || FD $5.1K), Schenn (DK $4.8K || FD $5.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Patrick Kane - DK $7.3K || FD $8.0K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Patrick Kane is a stud that is a little underpriced given the matchup. He averages 1.23 points per game and 3.73 shots on goal per game. This is a winnable game for Chicago and Kane has logged back-to-back double-digit fantasy point nights.
Jordan Kyrou - DK $4.9K || FD $6.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
There are a lot of wingers to choose from in this price range but what separates Jordan Kyrou is that he is on the Blue's top power play and Arizona has the worst penalty kill in the league. Also, he skates on the third line and if the Blues dominate this game as expected, he could have a good night with the rest of that line too.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Tarasenko (DK $7.6K || FD $8.5K), Kucherov (DK $7.5K || FD $8.7K), Forsberg (DK $6.9K || FD $8.9K), B. Tkachuk (DK $6.5K || FD $8.4K), DeBrincat (DK $6.3K || FD $7.0K), J. Robertson (DK $6.2K || FD $6.9K), Duchene (DK $6.1K || FD $7.6K), Terry (DK $5.1K || FD $6.4K), Gallagher (DK $3.0K || FD $4.0K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Seth Jones - DK $5.9K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Seth Jones forever. He does a little bit of everything and should be priced over $6K. He is on the power play but the Sharks have the No. 3 penalty kill in the league. A cash game staple for me
Brent Burns - DK $5.7K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
I haven't played Burns as much since he moved off the top power-play unit. That said, he averages 11-12 fantasy points per game (depending on the site) and is priced under $6k. Similar to Jones, this is a bit of a misprice and I would look to take advantage of that in a cash game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Josi (DK $8.8K || FD $7.9K - FD play), Hedman (DK $7.2K || FD $7.1K), Klingberg (DK $4.9K || FD $5.0K), Hanifin (DK $4.8K || FD $5.1K), Hamonic (DK $4.4K || FD $4.4K), Larsson (DK $3.4K || FD $4.2K), Tanev (DK $2.8K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in. This slate is large enough that you can find some overlooked stacks or players and be fine. In smaller contests, you can be more chalky and choose maybe one leverage point. In a large field GPP, you might need to choose two leverage points to try to win.
Saint Louis (4.4 implied goals), Calgary (4.0 implied goals), and Florida (3.9 implied goals) I imagine will be popular.
Here are some stacks that I like:
Ottawa PP1: Montreal has the No. 28 penalty kill (74.9%). Ottawa doesn't have a great power play but I expect that first line to get some shots
Tampa Bay PP1: Nashville is No. 16 in penalty kill (79.7%), but here is the thing: Nashville commits the most penalties in the league, so they are in the penalty kill more frequently than other teams on average.
San Jose PP1: Chicago has the No. 26 penalty kill and their goaltending situation is bad. There is a lot of upside with this first line and with the power play.
Dallas PP1: Seattle has the No. 25 penalty kill and Dallas 1 along with the power play score the vast majority of their goals.
Los Angeles 2: That combination puts up shots and they have scored the 7th most goals (30) out of all the forward combinations.
Chicago 1: Kane and DeBrincat will get shots up. How many they score will depend on how Reimer is tonight.
