RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Sunday, April 10th, 2022 at 4:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/10/22
We have a six-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 4:00 pm Eastern staggered to 7:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Scott Wedgewood - DK $8.0K|| FD $8.1K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
With Jake Oettinger playing last night, I am assuming Wedgewood gets the nod tonight. Wedgewood is 12-14-4 on the season with a 3.20 GAA and .908 SV%. He is coming off an impressive outing against Toronto the other day where he saved 37 of 41 shots. He has also had some good outings in the last month against Carolina and Pittsburgh where he had a game SV% in the 93% range. This is a game that Dallas should win and he should get some points for that too.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Andersen (DK $8.5K || FD $8.4K), Hellebuyck (DK $7.9K || FD $8.0K), Vasilevskiy (DK $8.4K || FD $8.3K), Sogaard (DK $7.4K || FD $7.0K - GPP).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Steven Stamkos - DK $7.1K || FD $8.0K - Winger on FD
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo allows the 6th most shots per game, so we are always wanting to target Buffalo when we can. Stamkos is centering that 2nd line for Tampa Bay where there is a larger mismatch in my opinion than the first line (although their first line is obviously really good). Stamkos averages 1.13 points per game and 2.9 shots per game. This should be a good spot for him tonight.
Roope Hintz- DK $5.8K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago allows the 10th most shots per game and their goaltending is suspect now that Fleury is gone. In general, Dallas is in a good spot here against the Blackhawks. Hintz averages 0.84 points per game and 2.64 shots on goal per game. Dallas is implied for 3.1 goals in this one and Hintz should be productive against this paltry team.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Crosby (DK $7.6K || Not on FD Slate), Point (DK $6.5K || FD $8.1K), Scheifele (DK $6.1K || FD $7.8K), Dubois (DK $5.7K || FD $5.9K), Kopitar (DK $5.6K || FD $6.1K), Seguin (DK $4.9K || FD $5.4K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Kyle Connor - DK $8.3K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Kyle Connor is a threat to lead the slate in shots on goal. This is less of a huge claim considering the likes of Auston Matthews and others are not on the slate. Connor averages 1.19 points per game and 4.17 shots on goal per game. He is always a threat to pick up the 5 shots-on-goal bonus on DraftKings. Additionally, Winnipeg is implied for 3.8 goals tonight, tied for the second-most on the slate.
Brady Tkachuk - DK $6.2K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
It's kind of weird perhaps to also recommend an opposite winger as well. I probably would not play both of these guys in the same lineup but think of Tkachuk as a pivot if you cannot afford Connor (Ehlers is another great pivot and listed below). Tkachuk averages 3.54 shots on goal per game and Ottawa is implied for 2.9 goals; so this game could have some scoring and shots taken on both sides here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kucherov (DK $7.8K || FD $8.8K), Forsberg (DK $7.2K - Not on FanDuel), Ehlers (DK $6.6K || FD $7.7K), Arvidsson(DK $5.6K || FD $6.3K), Pavelski (DK $5.5K|| FD $7.3K), Palat (DK $3.7K || FD $4.3K), Kaliyev (DK $2.5K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Seth Jones - DK $6.2K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Seth Jones is always a great all-around option. Even though I really like Dallas tonight, he is going to be productive. Jones averages 0.70 points per game, 2.49 shots per game, and 2.06 blocked shots per game. He is also on the Power Play and averages 26 minutes of time on ice per game too. In his last three games, he has been on the ice for 29 minutes, 28 minutes, and 31 minutes. He is playing a lot, and when he's out there he accumulates points. Not a bad spend-up option for a cash game, and he has some upside with the blocked shots bonus to consider for GPPs as well.
Mikhail Sergachev - DK $5.4K || FD $4.9K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Mikhail Sergachev averages 0.50 points per game, 1.93 shots per game, and 1.60 blocked shots per game. Additionally, he averages 22 minutes of time on ice per game but has been seeing more time recently with 25 minutes and 27 minutes in his last two games. Also, he is on that second defensive pairing and if the game is a blowout maybe he sees some increased time on the ice for a third straight game as well.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hedman (DK $6.9K || FD $7.0K), DeAngelo (DK $5.5K || FD $6.0K), Durzi (DK $5.2K || FD $5.3K), Middleton (DK $2.6K || FD $3.0K), de Haan (DK $3.4K || FD $4.3K). Letang and Josi on DraftKings
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
I will continue to emphasize this but your strategy for GPPs depends on what kind of contest you are playing in.
Tampa Bay is implied for 4.4 goals and will likely be the most popular stack of the slate. If playing in a large field contest, I'd consider Tampa Bay 3 or probably fade the top two lines and power plays. In a smaller contest, I would consider stacking them but likely would need to find some low-owned secondary stack or goalie to go with it.
After Tampa, Carolina and Winnipeg are implied for 3.5 goals followed by Minnesota with 3.5 goals. Minnesota is a tough one for me to roster as Los Angeles allows the third-fewest shots on goal per game, so I am probably fading there. Carolina is the late game and Anaheim is a decent team (but they do allow the 9th most shots on goal per game), so I will likely look there for my stacking needs.
To recap, here are the stacks I like
Tampa Bay 1, 2, 3: 1, and 2 if I can get leverage in other spots and 3 if I am trying to win a large field GPP (Tampa 3 has scored the most even-strength goals out of all the lines on Tampa Bay).
Carolina PP1: Line 1 and 2 are both good as well, and Line 3 is a good filler stack if wanting exposure to the game for cheap
Los Angeles Power Play: This is my sneaky stack. Minnesota has the No. 25 penalty kill (75.5%) and commits the 2nd most penalties per game in the league (4.31). Nobody will be on this as Minnesota is favored.
If you are looking to get sneaky anywhere stack-wise, find a high-owned goalie and choose the most productive stack against that goalie's opponent for leverage, especially in a large field GPP.
