RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 1st, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/1/23
The league is approaching the final stretch run as many teams fight for a date with Lord Stanley and we have already started to see some teams like the Boston Bruins playing their star players less, to rest them for playoffs. This will become a bigger trend as we close in on playoffs and it can impact fantasy in a big way. It is important to understand this when making roster decisions. Tonight we have an 11-game slate with three teams playing on a back-to-back: Buffalo, Dallas, and Arizona. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are Edmonton with 5, New Jersey with 4.3, and Carolina with 4.2. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Ivan Prosvetov-DK $7.5K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
The goaltending is a bit blurry when guessing the starter for the Coyotes tonight, however, Karel Vejmelka played last night and it would be safe to say he won’t start again, leaving the net open for Ivan Prosvetov. In his only three starts this season, he has won all three games posting north of a 0.930 Save Percentage. The Sharks are currently getting outscored 11 to 27 in their last five away games and comparing their last 10 games to their season averages, they are bottom ten in Scoring Chances For Per 60, High Danger Chances Per 60, and Expected Goals For Per 60. For Prosvetov’s salary, this could be the best value play at goalie tonight.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Grubauer (DK $7.8K || FD $7.6K), Ersson (DK $7.3K || FD $7K)
Centers
Connor McDavid-DK $10.2K || FD $10.5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
There is not much to say other than plug and play McDavid and reap the rewards. In all honesty, though, it would be surprising to see McDavid below 20 percent ownership in most contests tonight due to his matchup. The Ducks are playing slightly better defense, but they are still in the bottom half of the league in all meaningful statistics and they have also been outscored 11 to 17 in their last five away games. Expected starter John Gibson has also conceded a slate-high 24 Goals Against in his last five appearances, while McDavid has 3 goals, 5 assists, and 15 shots in his last five games. Everything is adding up to McDavid and the Oilers having a big night tonight.
Anton Lundell- DK $3.6K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Somehow the hockey gods are doing us a big favor at the time of writing, giving us both Connor McDavid and Anton Lundell in prime matchups. Lundell is once again filling in for Sam Bennett who has been injured often this season. In his last five games, he has 3 goals, 1 assist, and 12 shots. Tonight he gets a delicious meeting in Columbus. As stated in the article on Tuesday, the Blue Jackets are playing better, but they still sit in the bottom half of the league in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and High Danger Chances Against Per 60. Florida’s second line has been on fire this week and they will be getting the best matchup against Columbus’s weak third line.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hischier (DK $6.7K || FD $6.8K), Hayton (DK $4.4K || FD $5.4K)
Wings
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins- DK $6.9K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
After another failed attempt to move Evander Kane and Kailer Yamamoto to McDavid’s line, Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are back. In the first game reuniting on the top line, Nugent-Hopkins had 4 shots in a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings. In the four games before that, he had 4 goals, 6 assists, and 9 shots. Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid have great chemistry and against one of the league’s worst defenses with possibly no Trevor Zegras, this is adding up to a potentially big night for the top line of the Oilers.
Nick Schmaltz- DK $5.2K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Schmaltz is currently 4 points away from having a career season – 59 points, which is his season best from last year – and tonight he could possibly break it – if he has a big night. Depending on who you talk to, the Sharks had a shock win at home against the Golden Knights on Thursday and despite the win, they are still a bad team – being outscored 11 to 27 in the last five road games. They are mitigating chances, however, their goaltending continues to be a league-worst and we may finally get Kaapo Kahkonen in the net – conceded 23 goals in the last five games. In the winger’s last five games, he has 7 assists, 11 shots, and 2 blocked shots. San Jose is the perfect opportunity to keep his 7-game point streak alive.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M. Tkachuk (DK $8.7K || FD $10K), Mercer (DK $4.6K || FD $5.5K)
Defense
Juuso Valimaki- DK $4.2K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
The defense has a plethora of value options tonight with the likes of Valimaki, Bouchard, Brannstrom, and Boqvist highlighting the pool. Valimaki has been mentioned time and time again in this article for being the soul of the Coyotes. The defenseman once again carried the bulk of the game in a 5-2 lopsided loss last night to the Dallas Stars, where he scored once, took one shot, and blocked one shot. In the four games prior, he had 1 assist, 7 shots, and 11 blocked shots. Despite Valimaki and the Coyotes playing on a back-to-back, he should have plenty of chances to produce tonight.
Evan Bouchard- DK $4.1K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
As mentioned, Bouchard will be one of the top-value defensemen tonight and it would be jaw-dropping for him not to see north of 20 percent ownership in all contests tonight. The Ducks remain a poor defensive team aforementioned and Bouchard continues to quarterback the top power-play unit for Edmonton. In Bouchard’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 2 assists, 10 shots and 4 blocked shots. For just above $4K on DraftKings, this is an absolute steal of a play tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ekblad (DK 5.7K || FD $6K), Brannstrom (DK $2.7K || FD $4K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- EDM1
- FLA1
- NJ1
- OTT1
- TOR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- NJ: Meier-Hischier-Mercer
Chalk Stack
- EDM: Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Hyman
Sneaky Stack
- LA: Fiala-Danault-Arvidsson
