RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, March 27th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/28/22
We have a five-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7 pm Eastern and 10:30 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Frederik Andersen- DK $7.9K|| FD $7.6K
Opponent - Washington Capitols
Frederik Anderson is coming off a poor outing against Dallas a few nights ago, but overall is having a good season. He is 32-10-3 with a 2.11 GAA, three shutouts, and a .925 SV%. He is actually one of the least expensive goalies on the slate, and Carolina is favored to win the game. For cash game goalies, I try to find a goalie that is favored and towards the bottom of the salary scale so I have money for other spots. Andersen would qualify for this, given there are only five goalies that are favored and he is the least expensive of those five on average between the two sites.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Koskinen (DK $8.5K || FD $8.6K - I do not want Mike Smith if he plays), Petersen/Quick (DK $8.3K || FD $8.2K), Husso (DK $7.8K || FD $8.0K), Lankinen (DK $8.0K || FD $7.8K - GPP), Grubauer (DK $7.1K || FD $6.9K - GPP). In large field GPPs, consider playing a goalie against one of the more popular stacks.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Leon Draisaitl- DK $7.8K || FD $10.1K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
FanDuel priced Connor McDavid vs. Leon Draisaitl appropriately while DraftKings did not. Draisaitl averages 0.2 less DraftKings points per game than McDavid but is $1,200 cheaper. On FanDuel, he averages 0.7 fewer FanDuel points per game and is just $200 less. There is no deep analysis needed here. Draisaitl for the price is the best spend-up cash option on the slate at Center on DraftKings. I imagine the field will recognize this, which makes McDavid more interesting for GPPs on DraftKings.
Evgeny Kuznetsov- DK $6.6K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Carolina Hurricanes
Although this is a tough matchup, Kuznetsov is on a 12 game point-scoring streak. I do not think there are any centers below his price point that are averaging at least one point per game on the season (he has 66 points in 65 games). Going against one of the better goalies in the league, and a team that allows the second-fewest shots per game (28.71), you won't see many Washington recommendations for this slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.0K || FD $10.3K), Thompson (DK $6.2K || FD $7.7K), Strome (DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K - Winger on FD, C on DK), Nugent-Hopkins (DK $4.8K || FD $6.4K), Thomas (DK $4.2K || FD $4.6K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Patrick Kane - DK $7.4K|| FD $9.1K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Patrick Kane has 78 points (21 goals, 57 assists) in 62 games played this season. He also averages 3.66 shots on goal per game. Buffalo allows the fifth-most shots on goal per game in the NHL (33.88). Chicago is favored and implied for 3.4 goals on the slate. On a slate with some value, Kane is my favorite spend-up option at wing.
Nick Schmaltz- DK $5.1K || FD $6.0K - C on FanDuel
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Nick Schmaltz is not someone I talk about often but he is someone who has been playing well this season. Schmaltz has 45 points (19 goals, 26 assists) in 46 games played. He is on a three-game point-scoring streak and facing an Edmonton team that allowed nine goals to Calgary. I especially like Schmaltz if Mike Smith and his .896 SV% are starting in net for Edmonton. It is hard to find a player that averages close to one point per game at this price point. I like him better for cash than GPPs.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Arvidsson (DK $7.2K || FD $6.5K), Tarasenko (DK $7.1K || FD $7.5K), DeBrincat (DK $7.0K || FD $8.1K), Kane (DK $6.6K || FD $7.8K), Kyrou (DK $6.0K || FD $6.0K), Buchnevich (DK $5.5K || FD $6.4K), Garland (DK $3.6K || FD $5.0K), Kaliyev (DK $3.5K || FD $4.3K), Puljujarvi (DK $3.3K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Seth Jones - DK $6.4K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
On a slate in which a lot of the big names on defense are not playing, Seth Jones is the safest and most balanced option on the slate. Jones has 44 points (4 goals, 40 assists) in 62 games played. He averages 2.45 shots on goal and 2.11 blocked shots per game as well. In a cash game, it's nice to roster someone that does a little bit of everything because the more they do, the higher floor you have in the event they have a bad game.
Evan Bouchard- DK $4.2K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Evan Bouchard has 35 points (9 goals, 26 assists) in 65 games played. He also averages 2.35 shots on goal and 1.33 blocked shots per game. He does not have the upside of some of the high-end defensemen but at his price, if he performs at his season averages he will make value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nurse (DK $5.7K || FD $6.1K), Durzi (DK $5.5K || FD $4.7K), Hughes (DK $5.4K || FD $5.7K), Mayo (DK $3.3K || FD $4.0K), Larsson (DK $2.8K || FD $3.8K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How you approach this slate depends on your contest selection. Because of the contests I play, I try to find good plays that are overlooked due to the various options on the slate. Edmonton (4.5 implied goals) will probably be the chalkiest stack of the slate, especially in single-entry tournaments. I am likely to fade them all together in that format.
In a large, multi-entry tournament, because the slate is so small, you are going to have to find ways to get leverage on the field. Rostering Vejmelka against Edmonton is a way to do that. It's very risky because it is more likely to fail than not, but if it is successful, you will have leverage on the vast majority of the field.
Outside of that, here are a few other stacks I like:
LA 2: This line puts up a lot of shots and Los Angeles is implied for 3.7 goals. Additionally with this game having a 10:30 pm Eastern Start, perhaps this is a game many will fade due to the late start and not watching it on TV? This was a thing that was real with baseball on the west coast a few years ago, but now that isn't as much of a thing anymore. Maybe with hockey, it is?
Chicago PP1: This is a stack that could end up being somewhat chalky. Chicago is a popular team, and they are implied for 3.4 goals (third highest on the slate). If nobody is talking about them, I will have a lot of Chicago.
Carolina PP1, Line 1, or Line 3: These are all pretty productive lines. Carolina is implied for 3.3 goals, somewhat middle of the pack. I would consider PP1 or Line 1 as a main stack and Line 3 as more of a filler stack on a lineup with a different main stack than Carolina.
