RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 23rd, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/23/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have one game starting at 7:00 pm Eastern, one at 7:30 pm Eastern, one at 9:30 pm Eastern, then one at 10:00 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Darcy Kuemper- DK $8.3K|| FD $8.3K
Opponent - Vancouver Canucks
Darcy Kuemper is having a good season for the Avalanche. He is 30-8-2 with 2.40 GAA, five shutouts, and a .923 SV%. He is on the more expensive side and typically I like to target something more in the mid-range in a cash game format. With four games, there are four goalies on favored teams. The Avalanche are the second strongest favorites and playing at home. Vancouver is implied for around two goals based on the early lines.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): On such a short slate you can consider pretty much any goalie, especially in a GPP. In cash games, here is the order I'd consider others: Jarry/DeSmith (DK $8.2K || FD $8.4K), Kallgren (DK $8.5K || FD $8.1K), Gibson (DK $7.8K || FD $7.3K). For GPPs, I'd consider in this order: Lankinen (DK $7.6K || FD $7.5K), Demko (DK $7.1K || FD $7.7K), Anderson (DK $7.2K || FD $7.0K), Daws (DK $6.9K || FD $6.8K).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Auston Matthews - DK $9.2K || FD $10.2K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
We have a slate with Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, and Sidney Crosby on it. Not bad for a small slate! Matthews is my choice for a spend-up option. Toronto has the highest implied total on the slate and is the largest favorite to win. Paying up this high for a Center is more of a GPP move and Matthews is well suited for GPPs due to the multiple-goal upside he has every game. Matthews has 79 points (46 goals, 33 assists) in 57 games played and he averages 4.61 shots on goal per game, giving him a great chance at hitting the five-shot on goal bonus every time he steps out on the ice. It isn't necessary to have him in cash games but if you have extra money to spend, this isn't a bad place to do it.
Evgeni Malkin- DK $6.2K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Evgeni Malkin is one of the better midrange plays at Center tonight. He has scored 25 points (11 goals, 14 assists) in 27 games played and averages 3.11 shots on goal per game. Buffalo allows the third-most shots on goal per game (33.95). Malkin is on the second line, first power play, and going against a weak opponent in a game that Pittsburgh should score in. Given he is on a Top 6 line and the first Power Play gives him a great opportunity to score a point.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): MacKinnon (DK $9.0K || FD $10.0K), Crobsy (DK $8.4K || FD $8.7K), Kadri (DK $6.4K || FD $8.4K), Strome (DK $4.7K || FD $5.8K - Winger on FD, C on DK), Zegras (DK $3.7K || FD $5.8K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Mikko Rantanen - DK $7.0K|| FD $8.8K
Opponent -Vancouver Canucks
I like this play quite a bit, especially on DraftKings where Rantanen is the third most expensive winger. I do not find myself rostering him outside of Colorado stacks, but he is having a good season. 75 points (31 goals, 44 assists) in 60 games played averaging 3.5 shots on goal per game. The Avalanche are at home, they are expected to score around four goals, and Rantanen could very well be in the scoring column for the game here.
Alex DeBrincat- DK $5.9K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
It is wild to me how John Gibson was a goalie that I used quite a bit in GPPs is now a goalie that we are looking to target. On DraftKings, the Blackhawks are pretty inexpensive but FanDuel priced them up. DeBrincat has 56 points (34 goals, 22 assists) in 64 games played. He also averages 3.23 shots on goal per game. Nearly a point per game scorer that averages over 3.0 shots on goal for under $6K is a great deal on DraftKings and is solid over on FanDuel.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marner (DK $7.5K || FD $8.7K), Kane (DK $6.4K || FD $9.2K), Guentzel (DK $7.3K || FD $8.5K), Rust (DK $6.6K || FD $8.6K), Bratt (DK $5.1K || FD $7.3K), Nichushkin (DK $4.7K || FD $6.6K), Pettersson (DK $4.6K || FD $6.2K - C eligible on FD), Terry (DK $3.9K || FD $6.0K), Rakell (DK $3.4K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $6.6K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Vancouver Cancucks
Cale Makar is my top pay-up option on the slate. He is coming off a 20 fantasy point game and then he got priced down for this slate. 71 points (22 goals, 49 assists) in 60 games played, averaging 2.97 shots on goal per game. There is no reason to fade him and there's no deep analysis needed in order to play him.
Seth Jones- DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Seth Jones is someone that is just really solid to play. I often do not play him because I typically am playing my most expensive defender in a power-play stack in tournaments. It is not often I stack Chicago in single entry formats. I often punt or spend down at my second defensemen slot. Anyway, what I like about Jones in addition to the fact he is on the power play is that he also blocks shots. He has 41 points (4 goals, 37 assists) in 59 games played, he averages 2.47 shots on goal, and he blocks 1.98 shots per game. DraftKings has a three blocked shot bonus and he gets those from time to time. Most defensemen that block shots at his rate are not as involved offensively, and it's nice to get a mix of both with Jones.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Letang (DK $6.8K || FD $6.4K), Hughes (DK $5.2K || FD $5.7K), Rielly (DK $5.2K || FD $6.1K), Toews (DK $4.8K || FD $6.3K), de Haan (DK $3.5K || FD $4.0K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How you approach this slate depends on your contest selection. Something I imply frequently but maybe do not spell specifically is ways to get leverage. One way to get leverage is to roster a goalie that is going against a high-owned stack. In this case, that would be rostering Demko who is going against Colorado, or Gillies going against Toronto. If Toronto or Colorado stacks fail, you will be thrust ahead of the pack because your goalie was benefitting points-wise. I am not certain this has to be done in a single entry event with only a few hundred people, but an approach like this could be beneficial in a larger field tournament as ownership gets more consolidated. Goalie scoring on a given night is pretty random, a good goalie can allow a ton of goals and get pulled, and a bad goalie can put together a shutout.
Another way to get leverage on the field is stacking a line against the chalky goalie. I imagine Kallgren going against New Jersey, Kuemper going against Vancouver, and Jarry going against Buffalo will be popular goalies on this slate. I would consider stacking one of those opposing lines as a way to get leverage on the field in a larger tournament as well.
Understand both of those leverage strategies are risky. They require rostering a goalie or a stack that is projected to score among the fewest points on the slate. You will not cash more often than you will cash, but the goal is that when you cash, you are hopefully towards the top.
On most medium to large slates, I try to find the good stack and goalie that are getting overlooked because of there being many options. On a four-game slate, the slate is not large enough for this approach. Another option that I do frequently on small slates is to expose my lineup to a specific team as much as possible. Most DFS players do a 3-3-2 or 4-3-1 stacking combination. On a small slate like this, I will do a 5-3 stack. My "5" would be all five skaters from a power play. My "3" would be an even-strength line.
Lastly, another potential strategy to try on such a small slate like this is to roster third and fourth lines on teams. Typically I make my two stacks out of Power Plays and Top 6 skaters on teams. On a small slate, for a filler stack, I will sometimes try to find a third line that has scored some goals together. These are often from a team with a high implied total.
Rather than list a bunch of stacks, hopefully from reading through this, you can see that in a way, every stack and every goalie is in play. It all depends on how large of a contest you are playing in.
