RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 at 7:30 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/2/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have two starting at 7:30 pm Eastern Time, one at 8:30 pm Eastern Time and one at 10:00 pm Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Jake Oettinger- DK $7.9K|| FD $8.0K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Toronto, Nashville, and Dallas all have opponents implied for less than three goals and are the strongest favorites on the slate. My rationale for Oettinger here is that he is the cheapest of Mrazek, Saros, and himself. Goalie is a high variance position, you do not want to pay more than you have to. Honestly, any of the three are recommended and the other two you can find in the "others to consider". Pick the one you feel most comfortable with and you should be fine.
Oettinger has been playing well of late. In five of his last six games, his save percentage has been at or higher than his .923 SV% on the season. This either means he is hot and keep riding with him, or variance will come crashing down at some point. Facing the Kings is risky; they are No. 2 in the league with most shots on goal. If the Kings shoot their average number of shots on goal, and Oettinger saves at his season SV% of .923, then that is 32-33 saves already.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Mrazek (DK $8.2K || $8.5K - Safe but may not hit value unless he gets a shutout), Saros (DK $8.0K || FD $8.2K), Shesterkin (DK $7.6K || FD $8.3K - GPP only).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Auston Matthews- DK $9.0K || FD $10.0K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Auston Matthews is the top spend up at Center tonight as he is most nights. If Craig Anderson is in the net, this is smash spot for Toronto. Anderson has a .905 SV% on the season but in his last three games, he has allowed 13 goals on 97 shots (0.866 SV%). Matthews we do not have to talk about too much. Every night he has multiple point upside, hattrick upside. He does have a floor of almost zero, he had just 1.3 DraftKings points last game and he had 1.5 DraftKings points against Montreal a week and a half ago. There are no locks or guarantees in hockey. Because of his matchup and season averages, he is going to be the highest projected player across the industry and if you can afford to spend up in a spot, this would be the spot to do it in.
John Tavares - DK $5.9K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Another Maple Leaf? If you are looking for more of a cash game type of play that is more middle salary, Tavares is a great play. He is on the first Power-Play unit, which is also the best Power Play in the league in terms of Power Play percentage. Tavares has 50 points in 52 games played and averages 3.07 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Zibanejad (DK $7.0K || FD $7.7K), Hintz (DK $6.8K|| FD$6.9K), Thompson (DK $6.3K || FD $6.8K - GPP only), Granlund (DK $3.5K|| FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Mitchell Marner - DK $7.9K || FD $8.8K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Toronto is implied for 4.5 goals, so playing some Toronto tonight is going to be a good move, especially in a cash game type of format. Marner has 56 points in 44 games played. He averages 3.09 shots on goal per game. He has had games recently with five, six, and even ten shots on goal. Of course, there are also games where he has one or two shots on goal. I do not want to keep beating a dead horse here, but having exposure to Toronto's top six skaters and top power-play unit are recommended.
Filip Forsberg- DK $6.1K|| FD $8.4K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
It hasn't been mentioned yet, but Nashville has the second-highest implied total tonight after Toronto with 3.2 implied goals. I am not certain why Forsberg is priced down so much on DraftKings. He has 45 points in 40 games played. He averages 2.95 shots on goal per game, which is pretty solid. He is even coming off a 20.3 DraftKings point night against Tampa Bay.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pavelski (DK $6.9K || FD $7.9K), Nylander (DK $6.4K || FD $7.2K), Tuch (DK $6.6K || FD $7.4K - GPP only), Duchene (DK $4.9K || FD $7.0K - Why is he so cheap on DK?).
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Roman Josi - DK $7.2K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Roman Josi is a regular for me in the recommendations. He has scored 54 points in 52 games, he is on the top Power Play Unit, he averages 3.46 shots on goal per game as if he is a winger. If you are looking to spend up at Defenseman, this is the place to do it, but isn't necessary to do if you cannot afford it.
Colton Parayko - DK $5.0K || FD $5.0K
Opponent - New York Rangers
I am breaking my rules here and recommending a Defenseman that is not on a Power Play. He averages 2.38 blocked shots per game, 1.74 shots on goal per game, and spends 24 minutes per game on the ice. He averages 9.7 DraftKings points per game and 10.44 FanDuel points per game. Having someone average 2x their price is good in hockey. There is not much upside, this is mostly a cash game play, but he is a guy that gets points because he is out on the ice.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Fox (DK $6.5K || FD $6.9K), Rielly (DK $5.8K || FD $6.2K - if you want some Toronto PP correlation, don't love as a one-off), Faulk (DK $4.7K || FD $5.9K), Klingberg (DK $4.2K || FD $4.6K), Ekholm (DK $3.2K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Toronto (4.5 implied goals) has the highest implied total on the slate. There is a drop-off from there and Nashville (3.2 implied goals), Dallas (3.0 implied goals), Saint Louis (2.8 implied goals), and New York Rangers (2.8 implied goals) are bunched together.
For a small slate like this and implied goal distribution like this, you have to decide how to handle Toronto. Do you completely fade them? Do you try to get different with them? Those answers depend on the size of the field. If playing in a large field GPP, not only do I think you fade Toronto, but I think you have to consider rostering Buffalo's goalie for leverage on the field. If playing in a small field contest, I do not think that is necessary.
Typically, I would fade Toronto and then look at rostering the second-best stack of the night (in this case it's Nashville). The problem with the slate is that Nashville is underpriced on DraftKings. It is not difficult to roster Toronto 2 with Nashville 1. It is also possible to roster Toronto 1 with Nashville 1 in a 3-3-2 lineup construction if you are willing to play minimum cash at both defenseman spots.
On FanDuel, it is not possible to roster both Toronto and Nashville full line stacks, so I would expect the ownership on FanDuel to be weighted towards Toronto players first, then Nashville, and then more of a glob of teams together, as so many of them have virtually the same expected goals.
With all of that considered, here are some stacks I like tonight:
Dallas PP1: Pavelski - Hintz - Robertson - Klingberg. Dallas is likely to get lost in the mix tonight, as their implied goals scored is just three and they are the second most expensive stack on the slate on both sites. The Kings have the No. 29 Penalty Killing Percentage (75.2%). The Kings do not commit many penalties, just 3.35 per game which is the downside. But that first line could score a couple of goals and I am willing to take that shot, especially if fading Toronto and Nashville. Additionally, Pavelski-Hintz-Robertson have the third most goals as a line combination in the league, more than Toronto 1.
Nashville 1/PP1 - FanDuel Only: Forsberg-Granlund-Duchene have scored the fourth most goals out of all the line combinations this season. Josi is always someone to consider adding to make a Power Play Stack if you can afford it. They are too cheap on DraftKings and too easy to get into lineups and is a fade for me over there.
Los Angeles 2: They are not favored to win but Los Angeles is No. 2 in the league in shot attempts per game. As mentioned above Oettinger has been playing well but he is susceptible, maybe even the most susceptible of all the top goalie options tonight to have a blow-up. Arvidsson-Danault-Moore has scored the 8th most goals as a line combination in the league. Do not roster with Oettinger in the same lineup though. I have seen some lineups out there with a stack going against their goalie they have rostered.
Buffalo 1: Thompson - Tuch - Skinner. This would be leverage on Mrzazek, who is likely to be one of the highest owned goalies tonight. If Buffalo scores a few goals, this stack is where most of the damage will come from. They are implied for just 2.2 goals, but if they score three and two of the three come from here, from a fantasy standpoint that isn't bad.
Toronto PP1: Matthews-Tavares-Marner-Rielly or could go nuts here and go Matthews-Tavares-Marner-Nylander-Rielly since it is a small slate. Just go all in with Toronto here. You have the entire first Power Play, and you get a C-W pairing on each of the top two lines. The downside to this, and why it might be a good GPP move, is that you would have to roster either the Kings Goalie (likely Petersen) or the Kraken Goalie (likely Grubauer) and essentially punt at the remaining W, D, and UTIL spot on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they are priced too high to roster all five. You'd have to roster four of them and then punt at the two D and UTIL spots on FanDuel. This is a risky stack, you will likely lose, but on a short slate, it's something to consider.
