RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 at 5:30 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/16/22
We have a small, four-game slate tonight after we played an 11 game slate last night. We have two games starting at 7:30 pm Eastern and two at 10:00 pm Eastern. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy- DK $8.4K|| FD $8.4K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Andrei Vasilevskiy is the most likely to pick up a win, however, he will only hit value if he allows two or fewer goals (ideally one or fewer). Seattle is second-to-last in the league in shots on goal per game. This will not create a lot of save opportunities for Vasilevskiy. You are paying for a floor of getting a win and allowing one or two goals.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.5K || FD $8.2K), Forsberg (DK $7.9K || FD $7.5K), Talbot (DK $7.8K || FD $7.9K - GPP)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Brayden Point DK $6.8K || FD $7.9K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Playing as a big favorite, Brayden Point is the most likely center on the slate to score a point if not more than one point. He has scored 42 points in 45 games played (22 goals, 20 assists). He has been relatively quiet from a fantasy perspective the last five games or so. He is on the second line and on the top power-play unit. He is a solid cash game option and he can be used as part of a line stack for tournaments. I do not like him as a stand-alone play in tournaments though.
Patrice Bergeron - DK $7.5K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Patrice Bergeron is a boom or bust player. He only has 44 points in 55 games (16 goals, 28 assists), but he averages 3.95 shots on goal per game. Due to the fact he averages nearly four shots on goal per game and is likely to go against a very questionable goaltender in Cam Talbot, I like him more in tournaments than in cash games.
This is a slate where you will either go Point, Bergeron, Lindholm, or I would recommend you punt down to a center in the $4k-$5k range on DraftKings and $5k-$6k range on FanDuel.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Lindholm (DK $6.5K || FD $8.1K), Stuetzle (DK $4.6K || FD $5.1K - winger on FD), Eriksson Ek (DK $5.0K || FD $5.5K), Hischier (DK $4.4K || FD $6.4K), Backlund (DK $3.3K || FD $4.9K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Steven Stamkos - DK $6.6K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Steven Stamkos is a cash game option tonight, especially on DraftKings. He has 63 points in 58 games played (27 goals, 36 assists) but averages just 2.86 shots on goal per game. He does not have high upside as other spend-up options may have, but he will likely score a point against the lowly Kraken and comes in at a nice price on DraftKings.
Patrik Laine- DK $6.3K|| FD $7.8K
Opponent -Ottawa Senators
Patrik Laine has 43 points (23 goals, 20 assists) in 41 games played this year. Additionally, he averages 2.81 shots on goal per game. He has 24 shots on goal in his last seven games (3.43 average). I view this play more as a tournament play. Laine has a good chance to have three to four shots on goal. He has the upside to score a couple of goals or to even get to the five-shot on goal bonus on DraftKings. His floor is zero and he has scored zero fantasy points three games ago.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pastrnak (DK $8.2K || FD $8.5K), Kucherov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.4K), Kaprizov (DK $7.8K || FD $9.0K), M. Tkachuk (DK $6.2K || FD $7.9K), Hall (DK $5.0K || FD $5.7K), Toffoli (DK $4.2K || FD $6.2K), Nyquist (DK $2.7K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Victor Hedman - DK $6.8K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Victor Hedman has scored 58 points (15 goals, 43 assists) in 59 games along with 2.47 shots on goal per game and 1.52 blocked shots per game. On this slate, he is the most likely to score a point, as he nearly averages one point per game. In a cash game, he is the top spend-up option on the slate.
Thomas Chabot- DK $6.4K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Columbus Bluejackets
After Hedman, there is a drop-off in point production among defensemen on this slate. It is a coin flip on who will score more fantasy points out of Werenski and Chabot (and I suppose Hedman too but we don't have a three-sided coin), and Chabot is cheaper so he gets written up here. Chabot has 33 points (6 goals, 27 assists) in 54 games played. He averages 2.96 shots on goal per game and is on the power play. Columbus has shaky goaltending to say the least, and I think that results in a Chabot assist or even goal tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Werenski (DK $7.2K || FD $6.6K), McAvoy (DK $5.6K || FD $5.7K), Sergachev (DK $4.9K || FD $5.2K), Andersson (DK $4.3K || FD $6.0K), Graves (DK $4.2K || FD $4.6K).
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How to attack this slate is going to depend on what type of contest you are playing in. There are only two teams implied for less than three goals: Seattle and New Jersey. If you are playing in a large field tournament, I think you have to stack one of those two teams for leverage onto the entire field.
In a smaller field tournament and single entry, you probably do not have to get that crazy. Calgary is implied for 4.0 goals while Tampa Bay is implied for 3.9 goals. In a small tournament or single entry, I try to get away from the top two lines on those teams and stack different ones. If I really want some Calgary or Tampa Bay, I look at their third lines for a filler stack or at defensemen to get some exposure.
Here are a few stacks I like outside of Calgary 1 and 2, and Tampa 1 and 2.
Boston PP 1: The Wild are second in the league in penalties per game, and have the No. 24 penalty kill in the NHL (76.0%). Boston is implied for the third-fewest goals, and this might be a chance to roster the team that takes the third-most shots per game in the league at reduced ownership.
Minnesota PP 1: On the flip side, Boston commits a lot of penalties as well, No. 7 in the league. Boston's penalty kill is No. 11 in the league, close to average (81.2%). Minnesota's power-play percentage is No. 18 in the league (19.9%), but if they are going to get into the power play frequently this game, they could score a goal or two just out of volume.
Tampa Bay 3: This is a sneaky stack, but they have scored as a line combination 22 goals, which is tied for No. 7 among all line combinations in the NHL. If this game starts to blow out, this line will get ice time.
Minnesota 2: They have 20 goals as a unit and have played 27 games together with Boldy.
Of course, the top two lines for both Calgary and Tampa Bay are highly rated for tonight. I can only recommend them if you can find leverage elsewhere. Generally, I look for leverage with my main stack but to each their own.
