RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 28th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/28/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd –. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have a 10-game slate and four teams playing on a back-to-back: Boston, Detroit, Ottawa and Chicago. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Buffalo with 4, Tampa Bay Lightning with 4 and San Jose with 3.7 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this ten-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Ilya Sorokin- DK $7.5K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
At the time of writing, Sorokin is the expected starter for the Islanders tonight and by no means should his salary be where it is right now – $7.5K on DraftKings –. Out of all goalies to play 5 or more games this season, Sorokin is the second-best goalie in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – 0.72 –. The defense is ultimately why Sorokin’s salary is so low and why he has been letting in more goals than typical as of late – 3 or more goals twice in the last five games –. Nevertheless, he checks off every box tonight, outside of being a home goalie which we can handle. The Wild are not a shot heavy team and they are also in the bottom-half of the league in Scoring Chances For Per 60, High Danger Chances For Per 60 and Goals For Per 60, setting up Sorokin to have a good floor in this meeting.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vejmelka (DK $8.4K || FD $8.1K), Jones (DK $8.1K || FD $8.6K)
Centers
Evgeni Malkin-DK $6.1K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
After losing 5 of the last 6 games, Penguins bench boss Mike Sullivan finally changed the lineup in the slightest bit, moving Malkin to the first-line and dropping Crosby to the second-line. Since this change, the Penguins have won both games, while outscoring opponents 10-5. During this two-game stretch, Malkin has 2 goals, 2 assists and 9 shots. Dating it back to his last five games and he has 4 goals, 4 assists and 20 shots. Despite Malkin being labeled as the ‘first-line center’, he and Crosby move back and forth between lines with whatever is clicking during the game and this can make it hard to stack lines. Nevertheless, he is playing with higher-skilled wingers now which has shown a clear increase in production for the center and he has a good chance to extend his point streak against a Predators team who is in sell mode.
Tage Thompson- DK $8.3K || FD $10.3K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
There is nothing the Blue Jackets can do at this point to stop the bleeding. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to start tonight in Buffalo and despite Columbus’s terrible defense, he can only do so much. Over the season the Blue Jackets are the second-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.09 –, the sixth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.04 – and the fourth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.09 –. This sets up Thompson to explode in a prime spot without winger Alex Tuch. Over Thompson’s last five games, he has 4 goals, 5 assists and 22 shots. Linemate and winger Alex Tuch is considered week-to-week with an injury and it has opened up the possibility of increased production from Thompson. In his first game without Tuch, he had 1 goal and 7 shots. This is one of the best spots on the slate and Thompson is arguably one of the best centers on the slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Hertl (DK $5.6K || FD $6.3K), Beniers (DK $4.2K || FD $5.8K)
Wings
Fabian Zetterlund- DK $2.7K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
After spending time all over the lineup for the Devils in the past two seasons, Zetterlund was shipped to San Jose as part of the anticipated Timo Meier trade. In 59 games through two seasons with the Devils, Zetterlund had 9 goals, 19 assists and 117 shots. Zetterlund for the majority of his time played in the bottom-six for the Devils and he will immediately get the opportunity to produce in a top-six role, slotting alongside Tomas Hertl on the second-line. Zetterlund will also occupy Meier’s vacant spot on the top powerplay unit as well. For a winger just above minimum pricing in a great spot is as close to a ‘lock’ as you can get. The Montreal Canadiens are in the bottom-ten of the league in Shots Against Per 60, Scoring Chances Against Per 60, High Danger Chances Against Per 60 and Goals Against Per 60.
Jeff Skinner- DK $7.3K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Throwing it back over to the snowy city called Buffalo, we will examine Jeff Skinner. Skinner is not only on the verge of setting a career-high in points with the Sabres but also in the NHL – 63 for both –. In his last five appearances, he has 5 goals, 3 assists and 15 shots. His shot output could be higher and we might get exactly that with linemate Alex Tuch out – aforementioned –. In the first game without Tuch, Skinner scored once and took three shots. As mentioned, the Blue Jackets have a terrible defense and this sets up a great one-two punch with center Tage Thompson.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marchand (DK $7.4K || FD $7.5K), Rakell (DK $6.4K || FD $6.5K)
Defense
Owen Power- DK $4.1K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
To finish things up in Buffalo, we have a question mark on defense. Rasmus Dahlin did not play in the 7-4 win against Washington this past Sunday and is it unknown if he will re-join the team here. This leaves us with Owen Power who has taken over for Dahlin in all capacities with the Sabres. In the one game without him, Power had 1 assist, 5 shots and 1 blocked shot. You can expect a similar output against the Blue Jackets if Dahlin ultimately sits out another game.
Nick Blankenburg- DK $3.8K || FD $4.3K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
On the other half of the ice, we have Nick Blankenburg and the Blue Jackets. Adam Boqvist is another defender who sat the last game due to injury – a 3-2 loss to the Wild on Sunday –. In that game, Blankenburg took over as the quarterback of the top power-play unit and he had 1 shot and 3 blocked shots. The Sabers’ defense is not the worst, however, their goaltending is less than desirable. If Boqvist sits out again and Blankenburg gets another crack at the top power-play unit, this is a great spot for him to easily maintain value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matheson (DK $4.9K || FD $5.8K), Dunn (DK $4.4K || FD $5.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- BUF1
- SJ1
- PIT1
- TB1
- OTT1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- SJ: Zetterlund-Hertl-Kaut
Chalk Stack
- BUF: Skinner-Thompson-Power
Sneaky Stack
- FLA: Verhaeghe-Luostarinen-M Tkachuk
