RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write primarily MLB and NFL on Rotoballer but I play a lot of NHL DFS and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, February 17th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/17/22
We have five games starting at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, and then we have different games starting every 30 minutes or so with the latest game starting at 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from the goalie position!
NHL DFS Goalies
Igor Shesterkin - DK $6.9K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Detroit Redwings
The pricing here with Shesterkin is wild. He is just $6.9K on DraftKings, one of the cheapest goalies you can find, but is the most expensive on FanDuel. This is assuming he is healthy enough to play as he was in the concussion protocol towards the end of their last game. Detroit is implied for just 2.6 goals tonight, one of the lowest on the slate. Shesterkin has a 0.938 SV% and averages 19.9 DraftKings Points per game (and 26.19 FanDuel Points per game).
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Sorokin (DK $7.8K || FD $7.6K - Top FanDuel play for me), Husso (DK $8.6K || FD $8.3K), Samsonov (DK $8.2K || FD $8.2K), Hellebuyck (DK $8.3K || FD $7.3K - Better FanDuel play).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Mika Zibanejad- DK $7.0K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Detroit Redwings
The New York Rangers are implied for 3.6 goals tonight, one of the highest totals, and I like the savings you get from Mika Zibanejad compared to the top of the salary range like a Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews tonight. Both of those guys are awesome but at over $10k on FanDuel and over $9K on DraftKings, I'll take the $2k+ savings and go elsewhere. Zibanejad has 49 points in 48 games. He averages 2.83 shots on goal per game. Given he tends to get more assists than goals, I'd look to pair him up with Chris Kreider rather than play as a complete standalone.
Mark Scheifele - DK $6.4K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Mark Scheifele is red hot and even on the second night of a back-to-back, I'm still considering rostering him. He just scored a hat trick against the Wild last night, and he has had a goal in five straight games, and his shots on goal have been higher recently as he'd had 14 in five games (his season average is 2.5 shots on goal per game). Chris Driedger is expected in net for Seattle and Winnipeg is implied for 3.8 goals tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.3K || FD $10.2K), Matthews (DK $9.4K || FD $10.3K), Thompson (DK $6.5K || FD $6.4K), Hertl (DK $5.8|| FD $6.7K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Kyle Connor - DK $7.9K || FD $9.7K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
Kyle Connor has been hot as has this Winnipeg Jets team. Connor has 27 goals and 25 assists on the season in 48 games played. He averages 4.52 shots on goal per game and is always a threat to get you the shots on goal bonus on DraftKings. I like him as a one-off option, I also don't mind pairing him with Pierre-Luc Dubois on the second line, or including Connor into your Winnipeg Power Play stack. His price keeps rising and I am going to keep going back to him when I can until he cools off.
Chris Kreider - DK $5.6|| FD $8.6K
Opponent - Detroit Redwings
This is a much better DraftKings play than it is a FanDuel play given the salaries. Kreider has 48 points in 49 games played including 34 goals on the season. He averages 3.1 shots on goal per game; he doesn't get into the five shots on goal bonus on DraftKings often but he sometimes does. With New York implied for 3.6 goals, I like Kreider's chances of getting the puck in the net tonight and he provides a good value on DraftKings.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Tuch (DK $5.8K || FD $7.5K), Wheeler (DK $5.2K || FD $6.2K), Panarin (DK $5.9K || FD $7.9K), Meier (DK $7.1K || FD $9.5K), Brown (DK $3.7K || FD $5.4K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
John Carlson - DK $6.2K || FD $7.0K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
John Carlson is my top play at defense tonight. He is on a four-game point-scoring streak and facing a weak Flyers team. I like that he is on the power play as it creates more point-scoring opportunities.
Torey Krug- DK $5.3K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
I haven't talked much about Saint Louis in this write-up. I prefer to play them as stacks rather than one-off pieces. Going against Montreal tonight, however, it would be wise to have some Saint Louis exposure in my opinion. Krug is on the top power play, while Montreal has the No. 30 penalty kill percentage in the NHL. I like Krug's chances at getting a point tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nurse (DK $6.4K || FD $6.3K), Jones (DK $6.7K || FD $6.9K), Trouba (DK $5.9K || FD $6.0K), Provorov (DK $6.5K || FD $5.2K), Barrie (DK $3.7K || FD $4.4K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Saint Louis (4.2 implied goals), Edmonton (4 implied goals), Winnipeg (3.8 implied goals), New York Rangers (3.6 implied goals), and Toronto (3.6 implied goals) are the teams with the highest expected goal total tonight. All of those teams are in play tonight. With 10 games on the slate, I am not going to worry as much about ownership as on the smaller slates where I am trying to get leverage.
That said my top stacks tonight are as follows:
Saint Louis PP1: Montreal is No. 30 in penalty kill in the NHL. Buchenevich-Thomas-Tarasenko are on the 2nd line and first power play. I would likely add a Krug to that to make it a four-man stack.
Winnipeg PP1: Seattle has a bad penalty kill, No. 27 in the NHL. Scheifele-Wheeler-Connor-Dubois are my preferred Power Play stack and get you exposure to both the 1st and 2nd lines. My only hesitation here is the fact this is a back-to-back. Connor and Dubois played fewer minutes than their time on ice averages while Scheifele and Wheeler played their average. There is a chance I just pair Connor and Dubois tonight and not the entire power play.
Rangers PP1: The Rangers are No.4 in Power Play Percentage and are much better on the power play than five on five. Detroit is one of the weaker penalty kills in the league. Zibanejad-Kreider-Panarin are the top choices here. The decision to make, in my opinion, is to either roster Strome to get exposure to the top two lines and save some salary or pay up to get Adam Fox.
Ottawa 1: This is a game that could be a barnburner on both sides here. Tkachuk-Paul-Brown provides a nice value on the slate with Tkachuk and Brown on a Power Play. Buffalo also has a bad penalty kill and if you want to get more sneaky, stacking the Power Play should get you exposure to the top two lines for Ottawa.
Buffalo 1: I like this stack if Murray isn't in the net for Ottawa, as Forsberg is projected right now. If not playing Ottawa and want to get sneaky, I like the other side of this game too. Buffalo is at home, facing Ottawa in a game they should/could win. Tuch-Thompson-Skinner are fully correlated to the power play.
