RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 14th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/14/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd –. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have a 6-game slate and six teams playing on a back-to-back: New York, Columbus, Toronto, Arizona, Chicago and Pittsburgh. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Toronto with 4.4, Winnipeg with 4.3 and St Louis with 3.8 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this six-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Tristan Jarry- DK $6.5K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
We may have the biggest bargain play of the slate. Tristan Jarry has been out for the past handful of games due to injury and he may be back tonight in San Jose. Due to his unknown status over the past several days, his salary is the lowest out of all possible starting goalies – barring Kahkonen not starting and Dell replacing him –. Over Jarry’s last five performances prior to the injury, he won just once going 1-4 and posted north of a 0.900 Save Percentage just twice. The Sharks are not an explosive offense outside of a few players with two currently in the middle of trade rumors – Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier –. However, they are outperforming slightly which could prove a concern for Jarry if he is not sharp early. Nevertheless, he is the lowest-salaried netminder and all we need is 2 or fewer goals conceded while making 20 or more saves to save value. This ask should be rather attainable.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vanecek (DK $8.5K || FD $7.7K), Sorokin (DK $8.4K || FD $7.8K)
Centers
Evgeni Malkin-DK $6.2K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Keeping it within the colony, we will mention the one consistent producer on the Penguins, Evgeni Malkin. The Penguins’ top-line has faltered in a big way, putting all of the weight on Malkin’s shoulders and he has done everything he possibly can using an eye test over the last week or two. In his last five games, he has 2 goals, 5 assists and 12 shots. His shots could be a bit higher, but his point production is immense and his on-ice vision is crisp as can be, picking out players in the smallest of passing lanes. The Sharks’ defense is all over the ice, conceding the fourth-most Goals Against Per 60 on the season – 3.11 –. Malkin will go against the top-six who are not the most defensively sound units, providing him the opportunity to get back in the point column.
Sam Bennett- DK $5.6K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
It is not always ideal to play a team in the second-half of their back-to-back, however, the Panthers have a great matchup against the Blues. The Blues over the season are in the bottom third of the league in Shots Against Per 60 – 30.85 –, they are the seventh-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 30.36 – and they are the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 2.94 –. Bennett and the Panthers are currently outscoring opponents 20-11 over the last five games and in that time frame, Bennett has 3 goals, 2 assists and 19 shots. He is currently just under the shot bonus on DraftKings per game – 5 or more shots –. Furthermore, his line is the most productive line for the Panthers, outperforming the fourth line by 3 Individual Fenwick For Per 60 – 39.55 –. This is a great spot for Bennett at immense value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Horvat (DK $7.6K || FD $8.6K), Hischier (DK $6.3K || FD $7.5K)
Wings
Mathew Barzal- DK $5.6K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
It comes as no surprise that Barzal is thriving ever since the acquisition of Bo Horvat from the Canucks, despite many saying it would not happen. The winger in four games since his new linemate arrived has 2 goals, 3 assists and 7 shots. The only major concern over Barzal is his lack of shots. He has never been a shoot-first player and now that Horvat is on his line, Barzal will be looking to set up Horvat first. This would ultimately make Barzal more of a ‘GPP’ play than anything. However, against the Senators who are playing on the second-half of a back-to-back, anything flies. The Senators are in the bottom third of the league over the season in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 29.02 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 2.8 –. The most notable part about this matchup is that Kevin Mandolese may start for the Senators with both Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg hurt and Mads Sogaard starting last night. Mandolese has a 0.927 Save Percentage for the Allen Americans of the ECHL, but the success has not translated to the next level in the AHL with a 0.879 Save Percentage for the Belleville Senators via eliteprospects.com.
Rafael Harvey-Pinard- DK $3.6K || FD $3K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
We may have our next Pavel Datsyuk or Jamie Benn folks. Harvey-Pinard is getting an extended look on the top line for the Canadiens with teammate Cole Caufield on the Injured Reserve for the rest of the season. For those that do not know, Harvey-Pinard was drafted in the seventh round of the 2019 NHL Draft. In his last five appearances, he has 5 goals, 2 assists, 11 shots and 11 blocked shots. The winger brings it all to the ice, providing in every facet of the game. By now everyone should know how poorly Chicago is at defense. Over the season they are the third-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 33.21 –, the second-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 32.4 – and the fifth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.09 –. Furthermore, expected starter Petr Mrazek is the ninth-worst goalie in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 out of all goalies starting 5 or more games – -0.488 –. Harvey-Pinard has a legitimate chance to have a ceiling game here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): M. Tkachuk (DK $8.4K || FD $10K), Palat (DK $4.6K || FD $4.6K)
Defense
Bowen Byram- DK $3.7K || FD $5K
Opponent - Tampa Bay Lightning
It is rather difficult to find ‘cheap’ value plays at defense tonight. However, with teammate Cale Makar out, Byram may be that guy. The defender in his three games since returning from injury has 2 assists, 5 shots and 6 blocked shots. He provides in multiple areas of the game and he could see a look on the top power-play unit along with teammate Devon Toews. In a high-paced matchup in a revenge game after Tampa Bay walked over Colorado 5-0 in Tampa Bay, Byram will get every chance to influence the game.
Damon Severson- DK $3.6K || FD $4.1K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Severson continues to sit around the 3K range on DraftKings despite his increased production and it cannot be ignored. Over his last five games, he has 3 assists, 7 shots and 12 blocked shots. He is strictly a peripheral player and points come as an added bonus. However, the Blue Jackets are the 31st-worst team against opposing defensemen and Severson is playing improved hockey as of late. This is a great spot with a potential look on the top power-play unit due to teammate Jack Hughes still being out.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ekblad (DK $5.7K || FD $6.6K), Letang (DK $5.5K || FD $6.5K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- PIT1
- FLA1
- NJ1
- NYI1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- MON: Harvey-Pinard-Suzuki-Anderson
Chalk Stack
- PIT: Rakell-Crosby-Malkin
Sneaky Stack
- COL: Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Toews
