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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 11th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 11th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/11/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd –. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have a 6-game slate and six teams playing on a back-to-back: New York, Columbus, Toronto, Arizona, Chicago and Pittsburgh. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Toronto with 4.4, Winnipeg with 4.3 and St Louis with 3.8 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this six-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Vitek Vanecek- DK $7.8K || FD $8.3K
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Very similar to the narrative Thursday, we target the Wild’s struggling offense once again. Over their last ten games, they are the eighth-worst team in Shots For Per 60 – 28.59 – and the worst team in Goals For Per 60 – 1.12 –. Vegas Golden Knights netminder Logan Thompson was able to hold Minnesota to 1 goal Thursday and Vanecek should be able to post a similar stat line here. Through his last five games, he is undefeated and has posted south of a 0.900 Save Percentage just once.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Hellebuyck (DK $8.5K || FD $8.4K), Woll (DK $8.2K || FD $8.5K)
Centers
Pierre-Luc Dubois-DK $6.5K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
It is no secret that Dubois and the Jets have been extremely inconsistent this season and are currently on a downtrend. Through Dubois’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 1 assist and 17 shots. The center is in store for an expected ceiling game playing in the arguably best matchup of the night against a struggling defense and netminder – Petr Mrazek –. Over the last 10 games, the Blackhawks are the second-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.64 –, the fifth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 40.13 – and the fourth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.46 –.
Alexander Kerfoot- DK $3.3K || FD $4.5K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
Kerfoot is nothing more than a glorified ‘GPP’ play tonight. The third-line pivot is taking up second-line duties while teammate Austin Matthews is on the mend. In four appearances since the new role, he has 1 assist and 7 shots. That is awful production for second-line expectations. However, he gets to play the Blue Jackets for the second time in as many days as they finish their home-and-home. The main reason why Kerfoot is a ‘GPP’ play is that he had a single shot last night in the first of the two games, despite having the best line matchup. Can he finally crack the ice and get on the scoreboard?
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Tavares (DK $7.2K || FD $8K), Thomas (DK $4.4K || FD $5.8K)
Wings
Kyle Connor- DK $7.7K || FD $8.6K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Keeping it in the jetstream we have Kyle Connor. The winger who is the most consistent player on the team has even been inconsistent this season. In his last five games, he has 1 goal and 14 shots. That is very uncharacteristic of Connor to not average at least 3 shots per game. Luckily, as aforementioned, the Blackhawks give plenty of chances to their opposition and they will be playing on the second-half of a back-to-back with the lesser of their two goalies after conceding 4 goals to the Coyotes last night. This is the ideal spot for Connor and company to finally get back on track.
Vladimir Tarasenko- DK $4.5K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Carolina Hurricanes
Tarasenko was the latest commodity and domino to fall in the ever-evolving trade market. He made his Rangers debut last night, scoring the first goal of the game, taking 2 shots and blocking 2 shots. A well-played debut many would say. Tonight his salary is even less than what it was last night and one could argue that Carolina’s defense has been slipping lately – conceded 10 goals over the last 4 games –. Tarasenko is the perfect floor play tonight in a fast-paced matchup that should see plenty of action.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nylander (DK $7.4K || FD $8.8K), Palat (DK $4.4K || FD $5K)
Defense
Torey Krug- DK $4.8K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Typically injuries may set back a player when they return, however, that is not the case for Krug. The defenseman was out for roughly a month with another injury and in the four games since his return, he has 4 assists, 13 shots and 10 blocked shots. The assists themselves are impressive, considering his lack of goal involvement since joining the Blues from Boston, but his peripherals are what really catch the eye. For less than $5K salary on DraftKings, we are getting a perfectly well-rounded player in a ‘decent’ matchup against the Coyotes who just gave up 5 goals to the Blackhawks. You could not ask for a better play at defense.
Jeff Petry- DK $4.7K || FD $5.8K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Teammate Kris Letang was a late scratch last night with a sickness and it bumped Petry to the top power-play unit. Based on the news, it is very possible that Letang also sits out this meeting in LA, resulting in Petry getting another crack at the top power-play and also the top pairing. Over his last five games, he has 3 assists, 12 shots and 8 blocked shots. In what will be a close matchup with the Kings, Petry should rack up the peripherals with points coming as an added bonus.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Rielly (DK $4.6K || FD $5.9K), Severson (DK $3.6K || FD $4.1K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- WPG1
- TOR1
- NJ1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- WPG: Connor-Dubois-Ehlers
Chalk Stack
- TOR: Marner-Tavares-Nylander
Sneaky Stack
- MIN: Kaprizov-Hartman-Zuccarello
