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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/6/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's a 13-game MLB schedule on tap throughout the day on this Thursday, July 9 slate! That means there is plenty of value on the board so let's get to it!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TOR: (-125)
TOR: Jose Berrios| CWS: Lance Lynn
It's the Blue Jays and White Sox tonight from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago and we have a pair of veteran right-handers going in this one.
For the Blue Jays, Jose Berrios has some attractive numbers attached to his name this season. He hasn't been the epitome of consistency, but Berrios is sporting a 3.73 ERA alongside a 4.07 SIERA and 16% K-BB%. Of course, those aren't eye-popping figures but Berrios went eight straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer before allowing 11 runs over his last three outings. For the most part, he's giving his team a chance to win when he takes the bump.
The same cannot be said for Lynn who is enduring a tough season. The 36-year-old has worked to a 6.47 ERA on the season, although his 3.88 SIERA suggests he hasn't been nearly as poor as his surface ERA might suggest. However, Lynn's walk rate has spiked to 8.3% (versus just 3.7% last season) while his ground-ball rate has sunk to just 38.8%. As a result, he's allowed 2.06 HR/9 on the season.
Of course, there's more at play here aside from the starting pitching. For instance, the Blue Jays sit ninth with a .328 wOBA versus right-handed pitching while the White Sox are in 27th with a .297 wOBA off righties. Additionally, the White Sox bullpen sits 26th with a 4.71 ERA on the campaign while the Blue Jays come in at seventh with a 3.80 mark.
It looks like the superior team is in a strong position to grab a road win at solid odds tonight in the Windy City.
Pick: Blue Jays moneyline (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 10 | Moneyline: ARI (-135)
NYM: Carlos Carrasco | ARI: Ryne Nelson
The New York Mets are in dire need of wins moving forward as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at Chase Field in Arizona.
Veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco has had a tough go this season as he will carry a 5.94 ERA across 11 starts into this one. Carrasco also sports a 6.46 FIP, 5.32 SIERA, and a minuscule 5.4% K-BB% on the campaign, figures that are miles below his career norm. Unfortunately, they all agree Carrasco has struggled mightily this season.
D-backs righty Ryne Nelson hasn't been much better. Nelson owns a 4.67 ERA on the campaign but his 5.06 SIERA and 9% K-BB% also leave plenty to be desired. Nelson has also been brutalized to the tune of a 7.09 ERA and .405 wOBA across 39 1/3 innings at home this season while his 5.25 FIP and 4.3 K-BB% at Chase Field are no better.
Unfortunately for the Mets, the D-backs have clobbered right-handed pitching to the tune of a .335 wOBA on the season, tied for fourth-best in baseball alongside the rival Dodgers. The Mets haven't been as good, hitting for a .317 wOBA off righties which is right in the middle of the pack in a share of 16th.
We also have a pair of below-average bullpens going tonight. The Mets sit 21st with a 4.24 bullpen ERA but also rank 28th with a 4.74 FIP. The D-backs' bullpen has also scuffled, sitting 19th with a 4.10 ERA and 18th with a 4.03 FIP.
This one has a high-scoring affair written all over it. However, the D-backs are priced nicely on the moneyline here. Let's double up and look for Arizona to grab a moneyline win while the total should get over 10 total runs.
Pick: D-backs moneyline (.135, DraftKings sportsbook) & over 10 (-105, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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