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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week five is here! We have what's most certainly the best Thursday Night game of the year so far as the Los Angeles Rams head to Seattle to take on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Rams come into this one as 2.5 point favorites, with the total set at 54.5. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on September 30th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
DFS Captains/MVPs
Russell Wilson ($17,700 DK, $15,500 FD)
This slate is a tough one, with a lot of high-priced players. We start with Russell Wilson. I'll have a ton of captains tonight from both teams. Wilson comes into this one with 1044 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions through the first four games of the season. His last three games against the Rams haven't been great, as he's only thrown a touchdown and three interceptions dating back to 2019. This was a massive dropoff from the three games before that, where he threw 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in those three. The Rams defense has been adequate at best this season, with a DVOA of -1.4% against the pass. I expect Russ to take advantage of their slow start and light the field up tonight.
Robert Woods ($11,400 DK, $10,000 FD)
Robert Woods has had a relatively slow start to the season, with only 15 receptions on 25 targets across the first four games, leading to 172 yards and two touchdowns. Sean McVay has come out and expressed that he wants to get Woods more targets, and I think this matchup is the one to do so. While Cooper Kupp has taken the role of the "#1 WR" on the Rams, he'll garner the warranted attention. This opens up the door for Woods to have a big game, especially considering the fact that the Seahawks have a DVOA of 58.1% against "#2 WRs" so far this season. Woods will likely my highest-owned Rams captain tonight.
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson
DFS Flex Plays
DK Metcalf ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)
Every week it's a battle between Metcalf and Lockett, and while Lockett has produced more fantasy points over the first four games, Metcalf leads in snaps, targets, and red zone targets. However, I think it's imperative that you have shares of both, I'll just have more of Metcalf. Jalen Ramsey has been monitoring the slot for most of the season, taking 55% of the snaps there this season. Metcalf only lines up in the slot about 20% of the time. Metcalf will likely be lined up on the left side of Wilson tonight, across from David Long Jr., who's taking 62% of the snaps there. He has 16 receptions on 21 targets in four games against the Rams in his career, and I think he has his biggest game against them tonight.
Darrell Henderson ($8,400 DK, $13,000 FD)
Darrell Henderson seems like the one "filler/replacement" running back that has taken the league by storm, at least from a fantasy perspective. He has 212 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 43 carries across three games this season. He got banged up a bit and ended up missing week three, but bounced back on Sunday with 89 yards on 14 carries as well as five receptions for 27 yards on six targets. Considering that was a three-score loss, Henderson seems game-script-proof. I think there's potential that game script could benefit him here though, as I believe there's a very real chance the Rams bounce back from Sunday and blow the doors off Seattle. Regardless, I'll have a lot of Hendog tonight.
Other Flex Plays: Chris Carson, Cooper Kupp
DFS Value Plays
DeSean Jackson ($4,400 DK, $8,000 FD)
This slate has a lot of high-priced options, and both offenses have fairly consolidated distribution. We're to need to take a chance on a couple of value punts to make lineups work tonight. I'll start with DeSean Jackson. Jackson has seen just 10 targets in the first four games, catching six of them for 147 yards and a touchdown. He could very well do that again tonight against a lowly Seahawks secondary that allowed a 76 yard touchdown to Deebo Samuel last Sunday.
Alex Collins ($3,200 DK, $7,500 FD)
This call is rather volatile, as we don't know that Collins will see even a bit of the work tonight. I'll take that gamble though, considering how well he played last week, finishing with 44 yards on ten rushes and a touchdown, as well as 34 receiving yards on two receptions. Chris Carson has a questionable tag coming into this one after averaging 2.3 yards per carry on 13 attempts on Sunday. With the quick turnaround from Sunday to tonight, I think he'll suit up, but Collins should see a bit of work. The Rams rank 22nd in defensive DVOA against the run (-7.9%). If Carson is out, Collins becomes a must-play, and I would imagine he'll likely see ownership regardless.
UPDATE: Carson has been officially ruled out.
Other Value Plays: Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, Rams D/ST
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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