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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Packers vs Cardinals showdown slate. His Week 8 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week Eight is here! The Packers head to Arizona to take on the final undefeated team in the league, the Cardinals. Green Bay will be without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, due to them being on the COVID IR. Due to this, the Cardinals are -6.5 point favorites and the total sits at just 49.5. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on October 28th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs
Kyler Murray ($18,000 DK, $17,000 FD)
The highest projected scorer of the night and my preseason pick to win MVP, Kyler Murray has been able to do it all this season. Through the first seven games, he has 2,002 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He's been getting it done on the ground as well, with 43 rushes for 126 yards and three touchdowns. He draws a strong matchup against Green Bay here, who has a defensive DVOA of 13.1% against the pass, which ranks 21st in the league.
Aaron Jones ($13,500 DK, $12,500 FD)
On the other side of the ball, we have Aaron Jones. Jones should get a huge bump in touches considering that the Packers are missing three of their top four receivers. Jones has been very good this year, rushing 89 times for 404 yards and six touchdowns. He's also caught 26 of 28 targets for 186 yards and four touchdowns. The Cardinals have a defensive DVOA of -21.5% against the run, which ranks 7th in the league but aren't great against defending running backs against the pass with a DVOA of -6.7% (17th). Jones is going to have to step up for Green Bay, which makes him a viable captain option tonight.
Other Captain/MVP Plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds
DFS Flex Plays
Aaron Rodgers ($11,400 DK, $15,000 FD)
Despite all of the injuries surrounding the Packers pass-catching group, it's hard to fade Aaron Rodgers. While he may not have a "vintage" performance, he can certainly get the job done. Through the first seven weeks, Rodgers has thrown for 1,710 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. The matchup is tough, with the Cardinals being second in the league in defensive DVOA against the pass at -20.8%. However, if there's anyone who is "matchup-proof" in the NFL, it's the bad man.
DeAndre Hopkins ($10,600 DK, $12,000 FD)
Hopkins and Murray, now in their second year together, have built an excellent rapport. Through the first seven weeks, Hopkins has caught 33 of 47 targets of 420 yards and a whopping seven touchdowns. He draws an excellent matchup against Green Bay corners Eric Stokes and Chandon Sullivan and should be in for a huge night against the Packers. If you want to captain Hopkins over Murray, I wouldn't blame you.
Other Flex Plays: James Conner, Robert Tonyan
DFS Value Plays
Randall Cobb ($3,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
With all the injuries in the receiving room, this was a given. Outside of Davante Adams, there isn't a receiver on the Packers roster that has a better rapport with Rodgers. He's up there in age now but has caught 14 of 18 targets this season for 179 yards and two touchdowns. Assuming he stays in the slot for most of the night, he'll have a decent matchup against Arizona slot corner Byron Murphy Jr. Murphy has allowed just a 58% catch rate this season but has allowed 1.52 yards per route covered, and opposing receivers have scored 0.28 fantasy points per route against him.
AJ Dillon ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
It'll be all hands on deck for contributing players on the Packers tonight, so we get some solid value with AJ Dillon. Through seven games this year, Dillon has rushed 52 times for 231 yards and a touchdown. He's also caught 10 of 12 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Since Arizona is solid against the passing game generally speaking but the Packers need to move the ball somehow, I can see a lot of dump-offs to Jones and Dillon, making Dillon excellent value at his cheap price.
Other Value Plays: Cardinals D/ST, Amari Rodgers
Overall Slate Note
It's an unfortunate slate due to the Packers missing Adams and Lazard, but luckily it opens up some value for us. While I will be playing Rodgers in 50% or more of my lineups, I'll likely be targeting Arizona's top guys like Kyler Murray and De'Andre Hopkins while using Green Bay for value. When building my lineups, I plan on restricting them from allowing both Edmonds and Conner in the same lineup, but I will allow for Jones and Dillon to be in the same lineup. However, I won't have Dillon in any lineups that Jones is the captain/MVP in. I'll be making sure that in any lineup I have Rodgers in that I have Cobb and one of Dillon/Jones in, and as far as the Arizona side goes I'll want to have Murray and one of his pass-catchers. Best of luck tonight!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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