TNF NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Bills vs Saints Thanksgiving Showdown

Happy Thursday, RotoBallers, and Happy Thanksgiving! I'm thankful for each and every one of you guys who take the time to read these articles, and I hope that I've been helpful through these first 11 weeks. Now that Week 12 is here, we have a Thanksgiving matchup between the Bills (6-4) and the Saints (5-5). Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. 

In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football slate on November 25th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!

DFS Captains/MVPs

Josh Allen ($18,300 DK, $17,500 FD)

Key Stats:

• 2021 Stats: 2,811 yards, 21 touchdowns, eight interceptions. 
• Offensive Pass DVOA: 15% (15th)
• Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.4% (14th)

Allen is going to be expensive, but in my estimation, he's a clear lock to be the highest scorer on this showdown slate. I don't need to say much Allen to get my point across here, but the deciding factor for me is that while the Saints rank 14th in DVOA against the pass, they rank first in DVOA against the rush. This creates a passing funnel that's too good to pass up.

Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)

Best Correlations: Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley

Mark Ingram ($13,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Key Stats:

• 2021 Stats: 137 carries, 499 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns, 31 targets, 24 receptions, 156 receiving yards.  
• 2021 Data (since joining NO): 53.52% snap rate, 45% attempt rate, 38.1% red zone attempt rate, 40% attempt rate within the 5yd line. 
• Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -13.4% (12th)
• Opposing DVOA vs RB (receiving): -14% (10th) 

If you wanted to go on the other side of this matchup, I'd take a look at Ingram. With Trevor Siemian still under center, Ingram will likely be the focal point of the Saints' offense, especially with Alvin Kamara out. In the last two weeks without Kamara, Ingram has gathered 30 carries and 15 targets for 221 yards and a touchdown. At worst he has a solid ceiling floor, and at best he can find the end zone a few times and take over the slate.

NOTE: Mark Ingram's status is questionable, and there is uncertainty that he will play today. Should Ingram be ruled out, Tony Jones Jr. becomes an excellent value play at both Captain/MVP and flex positions.

Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)

Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Tyler Bass

Other Captain/MVP Plays: Trevor Siemian, Cole Beasley

DFS Flex Plays

Stefon Diggs ($11,800 DK, $14,000 FD)

Key Stats:

• 2021 Stats: 92 targets, 60 receptions, 773 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
• 2021 Data: 79.68% snap rate, 24.66% target rate, 30.65% red zone target rate, 11 end zone targets.
• Opposing DVOA vs WR1: -3.6% (14th)
• Individual Matchup (vs Marshon Lattimore): 17% target rate per route covered, 59% catch rate, 0.38 fantasy points per route covered.

I really will be heavy on the Bills side of things here, as I really can't see New Orleans is able to do much with the ball at all. Diggs is a formidable option, with a solid target floor and potential to take over a game when he gets hot. As I mentioned with Josh Allen, the Saints defense funnels towards the pass, so I think that Diggs is a fantastic (though expensive) option to pair with a Josh Allen CPT/MVP.

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)

Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Deonte Harris

Cole Beasley ($6,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Key Stats:

• 2021 Stats: 74 targets, 57 receptions, 484 receiving yards, one touchdown. 
• 2021 Data: 86.62% snap rate, 19.84% target rate, 14.52% red zone target rate, three end zone targets
• Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: 35.7% (32nd)
• Individual Matchup (vs P.J. Williams): 10% target rate per route covered, 78% catch rate, 0.14 fantasy points per route. 

I can say everything I said about Diggs and repeat it with Beasley. While Beasley doesn't have the upside that Diggs does, he still has the solid target floor. We partner that with an excellent matchup and a passing funnel, and Beasley is a solid mid-to-low tier option on a slate where I would suggest paying up for the big boys.

Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)

Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Trevor Siemian

Other Flex Plays: Emmanuel Sanders, Dawson Knox, Taysom Hill (GPP)

DFS Value Plays

Deonte Harris ($2,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Key Stats:

• 2021 Stats: 40 targets, 26 receptions, 418 yards, two touchdowns. 
• 2021 Data: 35.07% snap rate, 15.56% target rate, 9.52% red zone target rate.
• Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: -28.8% (4th)
• Individual Matchup (vs Taron Johnson): 14% target per route covered, 50% catch rate, 0.15 fantasy points per route covered.

Probably my favorite Saints player outside of Mark Ingram, I think Harris has the highest likelihood of hitting value. Harris has had at least 10 DK points in two of his last three games, and while the general passing matchup with the Bills is the toughest in the league statistically, Harris finds himself in a decent matchup personally. I wouldn't be surprised if he catches a deep ball for a touchdown and ends up being in the optimal lineup. 

Recommendation: Cash (DK), GPP (FD)

Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Trevor Siemian

Tyler Bass ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Kickers seem to always be in the optimal lineups, at least on FanDuel. In two of the three showdown slates in week 11, kickers found themselves over 50% owned and scored more than 10 points. Since I'm so heavy on Buffalo in this one, I have no problem with playing Bass, who's been one of the best fantasy kickers in the league this season. 

Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)

Best Correlations: Josh Allen, Bills D/ST

Other Value Plays: Bills D/ST, Matt Breida

Overall Slate Note

I'm expecting a total Bills onslaught here. New Orleans wasn't really able to do anything against the Eagles on Sunday, and while I feel the Eagles' defense is solid, Buffalo's is on an entirely different level. Not to mention the Saints lost Adam Trautman on Sunday, one of Siemian's favorite targets. This gives a boost to all of the WRs as well as Ingram, but I'm really sold on using most of my Saints exposure to Ingram and Harris. I'd mix in all of the main Buffalo pass-catchers with Allen while giving some exposure to lower-owned value options like Gabriel Davis and Matt Breida. Here's to taking a tournament down while picking at Thanksgiving leftovers!

Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone, see you soon!

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