X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Tim Beckham Is the Post-Hype Breakout You've Been Looking For

Pierre Camus explains why he is buying Seattle Mariners infielder Tim Beckham as a true breakout player for the 2019 fantasy baseball season. He should be an add or buy-low consideration for fantasy owners.

Tim Beckham is the MVP. At least, he was one week into the MLB season. He earned the year's first American League Player of the Week honors after hitting .423 with three HR, eight RBI, eight runs scored and a 1.401 OPS in the first seven games. So much for the theory that a trip to Japan hurts a team's early-season performance.

Beckham didn't waste any time, going 3-for-3 in the first game of the season, including his first homer. He's collected at least one hit in 10 of 13 games so far as of April 10. Still, we're already forgetting about his hot start. Attention has shifted away from Beckham now that his entire team is going H.A.M. and even less-heralded Daniel Vogelbach is stealing the show lately.

Overreacting to small sample sizes is for suckers, as is declaring someone a breakout after one week when we have several seasons of lackluster stats to prove that the ship has already sailed. This just might be different, though. Let me tell you why Tim Beckham may actually be the post-hype breakout you've been looking for all preseason.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Pedigree Is Real

Tim Beckham has bounced around to three different teams in the past three years, playing at second base, third base, shortstop, and occasionally DH. On paper, he seemed to be a journeyman infielder in the making. It wasn't always this way, though.

Beckham was a former #1 overall pick by Tampa Bay. This is a team that has drafted very well over the past few years and only moved on from Beckham because they knew they had great talent waiting in the wings. At the age of 27, he found himself with a fresh start in Baltimore, ready to breakout. And he did, sort of.

You may recall, he has done the fast-start-with-a-new-club thing before. Upon first arriving in Baltimore back in August of 2017, he went 14-for-24 with three homers and six RBI, winning AL Player of the Week. Nothing like a good first impression, right? He would finish the year with a .306 average and 10 HR in 50 games for the Orioles.

Then 2018 happened; we know that didn't go over so well for any O's player not named Manny. Beckham found himself on the outs again for a team rebuilding with youth. While he slightly underperformed on his expected stats, it was a disappointing season as he saw his Barrel rate cut nearly in half and plate discipline still lacking with an 18.2% K-BB%. Onto another rebuilding club in Seattle where he would just hope for a chance at regular playing time...

 

The Amazin' M's

The story of Tim Beckham's resurgence to fantasy relevance has been overshadowed by the performance of the entire Mariners lineup, which just set the record for consecutive games with a home run to start the season at 15. Players like Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, and the aforementioned Vogelbach are putting up bigger numbers than Beckham. The whole team is overachieving (FantasyPros had Seattle's preseason win total over/under at 72.5) and is bound to fall back to Earth at some point, especially on offense. So why have interest in Beckham?

First, even with negative regression baked in, it's obvious this Mariners lineup is far better than we anticipated. In fact, aside from the HR record, they're off to a historically hot start with the bat, having scored the fifth-highest run total after 13 games in MLB history. They have a great balance between veterans and youth, power and speed. With table setters like Mallex Smith and Dee Gordon and a group of mashers in the middle, RBI opportunities should be plentiful for Beckham.

Second, he's done the most important thing a player needs to take a leap forward and that's to improve his plate discipline. Yes, it's just two weeks in, but he's walking at a 13.7% clip, which is more than double his career 6.6% BB%. The strikeouts have been cut down to 17.6%, which is by far his career best as well.

Next, he should get a slight bump in value over guys like Santana and Bruce because he slots in at third base or shortstop. Positional eligibility at CI or MI is valuable in deeper leagues and may allow you to move an extra bat if you find yourself in need of pitching help (who doesn't?).

Finally, Statcast approves this message. He has found a way to strike the ball harder, with a 90.1 MPH average exit velocity that is three points above his career norm. That's not exceptional by any means, placing him 110th on the MLB leaderboard, but it's a big improvement from last year's 86.6 mark. He's also managed to increase his launch angle and zone contact rate significantly, which has helped him hit five doubles along with four homers thus far. He is definitely outperforming his .409 xwOBA with a .514 wOBA to start the year but a .300 xBA and .553 xSLG tell of a player who isn't getting lucky with the bat. Expect some regression with the K-BB rate, but he could very well hit close to .300 by year's end.

 

Conclusion

Beckham has already been scooped up in many leagues, currently with a 76% ownership level. Chances are this is a player who will be dropped over the next couple of weeks by non-believers or impatient streamers once he goes through a couple of hitless games. While many will discount his fast start as a byproduct of a hot team or a flash in the pan, we should remember that Beckham has always had the potential to be a star but hasn't landed in the right situation.

Doubt Seattle's World Series chances all you want, but from a fantasy perspective, this team has proven it can produce runs. I'm buying Beckham as the post-hype sleeper I had him pegged for last season. Don't be afraid to buy in, even if it means jumping on a shaky bandwagon. After all, without risk, there can be no reward.

More 2019 Fanasty Baseball Breakouts




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Seth Lugo

Tosses Eight Shutout Innings In Friday's Win Over Houston
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Will Throw A Bullpen On Sunday
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF