Tight Ends Touchdowns Fallers for Fantasy Football - Regression Candidates

Fantasy points per game is one of the best predictive stats for fantasy managers. However, a player's point-per-game average can sometimes be significantly impacted by how many touchdowns they did or did not score. For 80% of a position's player pool, the players score more or less what we'd expect or in line with their career average. Then there's 10% who score fewer than we'd expect. These players are excellent buy candidates.

We've already touched on some of the tight ends who will score more touchdowns in 2025. In his article, we'll focus on several tight ends who will score fewer times in 2025. These are some players that fantasy managers should be wary of.

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Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews is the poster child for touchdown regression. Andrews had a disappointing season, but the touchdowns covered many concerns. He averaged just 4.06 targets per target. He hadn’t been below a 6.00 target per game average since his rookie season in 2018. His reception and yard-per-game averages were both the lowest they’ve been since his rookie season.

He averaged just 39.6 yards per game this year. That hadn’t been below 50 in any of the previous five seasons. From 2019-to-2023, excluding his rookie season, Andrews’s touchdown rate was 7.2%. That’s an excellent rate, but in 2024, his touchdown rate jumped to 16.0%. That is completely absurd.

Mark Andrews led all TEs in touchdowns (10) this fantasy season, despite ranking 15th among TEs in receptions (51) 😳 pic.twitter.com/Eh4NZLlJII

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) January 10, 2025

41% of his points in 2024 came from touchdowns. If that isn’t a giant red flag, I’m not sure what is. He finished first among tight ends in touchdowns with 11. However, he was just 17th in targets (69) and ninth in red zone targets (22). His volume does not explain his high touchdown total.

His number of end zone targets, however, could. He finished first with 10. At first glance, it’s easy to say, “Well, that explains it,” but there’s more than meets the eye. He caught nine of his end zone targets for a 90% catch rate. From 2019-to-2023, he caught 47% of his 53 end-zone targets.

Everything about his 2024 screams regression. With him getting another year older and Isaiah Likely’s role likely to increase, Andrews’s 2025 fantasy season has the potential to look remarkably different, and not in a good way.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Kraft had a breakout season in 2024, but there were a lot of things that happened that fell in his favor. Christian Watson missed two complete games and parts of others. Romeo Doubs missed four complete games. Luke Musgrave missed the majority of the season. He went on IR after the first three games, and while he returned late in the season, he only played a minimal role.

The injury to Musgrave increased his playing time significantly. They had been working in a tight end by committee, one that Musgrave was leading. When Musgrave went down, Kraft’s playing time and route share surged. The injuries to the other receivers helped minimize the target competition.

Despite the good fortune, Kraft finished 20th in targets (65), 11th in red zone targets (17), and just 24th in end zone targets (three). Based on that volume and utilization, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect him to finish in the top ten in touchdowns.

Kraft, however, didn’t just finish top-10. He finished fourth with seven touchdowns. His expected touchdown total was four, indicating Kraft also doubled his expected touchdown total. Kraft looked like the next young tight end to bet on, but some things should give fantasy managers pause.

While we shouldn’t expect Musgrave to reclaim his starting role, not after what Kraft did last year, we should expect Musgrave to be more involved than he was this season, which could potentially decrease Kraft’s opportunities ever so slightly.

While Watson will likely be out most of the 2025 season, the Packers will likely draft a receiver. With a fully healthy season from Doubs and Musgrave, Kraft could see more target competition. That is all on top of the fact that just based on his 2024 target volume and his utilization; he’s a strong regression candidate in 2025.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders

Ertz finished the 2024 season as the TE12 with an 8.2 half-PPR PPG average. He was ninth in overall scoring among tight ends. He’ll be 35 in November of the 2025 season. If you’re looking for regression candidates, identify older players who significantly outplayed their preseason expectations.

Ertz certainly qualifies. In his previous 28 games with Kliff Kingsbury before last year, Ertz had scored eight touchdowns on 193 targets. This resulted in a 4.1% touchdown rate. In 2024, however, he scored seven touchdowns on 91 targets. Almost doubled the number of touchdowns on nearly half the number of targets. His touchdown rate was 7.7%.

Fantasy managers expecting that to continue in 2025 are going to be disappointed. He finished fourth in touchdowns (seven) but was just eighth in targets (87) and sixth in red zone targets (25). He was, however, first in end zone targets with 10.

His volume and utilization were good in 2024, allowing him to excel in the touchdown department, but expecting that same volume and utilization in 2025 is a risky bet. Even if it does continue, expecting the same efficiency is another risky bet.

Washington has plenty of cap space, and they drafted Ben Sinnott in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. This could lead to a decreased role in 2025 if Washington adds a more talented pass-catcher or if Sinnott’s role expands in year two.

Other Obvious Candidates

• Foster Moreau, New Orleans Saints
• Noah Gray, Kansas City Chiefs
• Tyler Conklin, New York Jets

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