Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks - Outlooks and Trends For Week 5

The tight-end position has always been bad. Fantasy football managers have never had many options. It’s always lacked depth. However, it’s never been this bad. This year, at least through four weeks, is the worst the position has ever been. Through four weeks, there are just two tight ends averaging more than 8.5 half-PPR points. No one is averaging 12 half-PPR PPG. For crying out loud, the TE12 right now is Zach Ertz, averaging just 6.1 half-PPR PPG.

Four kickers are outscoring George Kittle, the TE1. Nine kickers are averaging double-digit points, whereas tight ends have just two. There are five defenses scoring at least 10 PPG. There are nine defenses averaging 8.5 PPG. Tight ends have just two who can say that. See, it’s been bad! Here, we’ll try to wade through the mud to give you some direction.

Four weeks isn't the end of the world, but we can start to see some trends, and it would be unwise to ignore what the season has shown. To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

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Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Do I think Kelce has lost a step (or two)? Yes. Will that matter now that Rashee Rice is set to miss considerable time? No. Volume reigns supreme, which is why the tight-end position has failed this season. Very few, if any, are getting weekly targets.

That won’t be the case for Kelce anymore. Kelce had a 13.0% target share through the season's first three weeks. He had a 14.5% first-read target share during that time. In Week 4, following Rice’s injury, Kelce had a 31.0% target share and a 46.7% first-read target share.

TE route participation - Week 4

94% - Travis Kelce
93% - Elijah Higgins
90% - Tyler Conklin
86% - Jake Ferguson
86% - Sam LaPorta
86% - Tucker Kraft
86% - Zach Ertz
83% - Pat Freiermuth
82% - Cade Otton
81% - Colby Parkinson
81% - Brock Bowers
80% - George Kittle
80% - Hunter…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 1, 2024

Not surprisingly, the production followed the volume. After recording just 12 targets, eight receptions, and 69 yards through the first three weeks, Kelce exploded for nine targets, seven receptions, and 89 yards. In Weeks 1-3, Kelce had a 69.5% route share. That increased significantly, up to 91% in Week 4.

With Marquise Brown on IR and Xavier Worthy still just a rookie, this passing offense will flow through Kelce. It may not always be efficient, but the volume will carry Kelce. He’s a locked-in top-2 tight end for as long as Rice is out.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

If Freiermuth is on waivers in your league, that must be rectified. In Yahoo!, he’s rostered in 79% of leagues, and at ESPN, he’s just 67% rostered. That’s not bad, but he should be well over 90%. He’s the TE7 through four weeks with a 7.5 half-PPR PPG average.

Freiermuth is the only tight end in the NFL to have four receptions in every game this year. You can likely count on one hand how many tight ends rank second on their team in targets. Freiermuth, however, happens to be one of them. He has a 19.4% target share and is coming off his best game of the season.

His role as the team’s No. 2 target earner gives him a solid weekly floor because the volume is consistent. He has at least four weekly targets and has been trending up recently.

NFL Week 4 TE Usage (No MNF)
1. Tucker Kraft (13.0 exp half PPR)
2. Dallas Goedert (11.8)
3. Cade Otton (11.6)
4. Pat Freiermuth (9.6)
5. Tyler Conk Daddy (9.3)
6. Travis "ROS TE1" Kelce (9.2)

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 30, 2024

His route share in the first weeks failed to eclipse 80%, but he’s been above that number in Weeks 3 and 4, a good sign for his fantasy value. Given his route and target share, Freiermuth is among the few tight-end profiles fantasy managers can feel safe in. He’s running many routes, and his role on the offense is consistent and dependable.

He’s earned set-it-and-forget-it status thus far. Now, we wait for the Davante Adams trade news to drop since the Steelers have been rumored as a potential destination.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Last week was awesome. Kraft had nine targets, six receptions, 53 yards, and one touchdown en route to 14.3 half-PPR points. However, that stat line needs to be taken with a grain of salt. That’s because Jordan Love attempted 54 passes. Before that, his career high in pass attempts was 44. In 22 career starts, he’s thrown over 40 passes just three times. Don’t get used to that volume and understand that it inflates everyone’s totals of what we should expect moving forward.

However, he has posted a 15% target share in the last three weeks, and now, Christian Watson is expected to miss some time. It remains to be seen if that’s a good thing, however. One could argue that Dontayvion Wicks is better than Watson, and Watson’s injury will now make Wicks a full-time player.

Kraft has been the undisputed No. 1 tight end this season for the Packers. In Week 4, Kraft ran 48 routes to Luke Musgrave’s 17. That’s been a common theme all year. Kraft has significantly out-snapped Musgrave and has run considerably more routes. In Week 4, he had an 86% route participation.

Tucker Kraft averaged an 87% route participation rate in seven games without Luke Musgrave last season

He had six targets in four of those seven games and produced 60+ receiving yards twice

If Musgrave misses Week 5 (along w/ Christian Watson), Kraft quickly becomes a top-10 TE https://t.co/e8ZWL9DxBA

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) October 3, 2024

He is currently first in yards after the catch per reception among tight ends and is a real problem for defenses to get to the ground. With Josh Jacobs not as involved in the passing game through four weeks as some might have expected (he did have six targets last week), Kraft could find himself with more volume moving forward.

He’s someone who can be started with Watson out. At the very least, fantasy managers are getting a tight end on a high-scoring offense with a great quarterback and an offense that has leaned on the passing game more so than the running game. The Rams also happen to be a great matchup in Week 5.

Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

This is a situation to avoid altogether. After his 21.6 half-PPR point performance in Week 1, Likely has scored just 7.6 half-PPR points in the past three weeks combined. Andrews has posted two consecutive games with zero points and has just 9.5 half-PPR points on the season.

The Ravens won their last two games by a combined score of 63-35. More importantly, the Ravens have rushed for 545 yards. Derrick Henry himself has 350 in those two contests.

Due to its dominance on the ground, Baltimore hasn’t had to throw. Lamar Jackson has just 33 pass attempts over the past two weeks. Will that continue? Absolutely not. Will there be weeks like we’ve seen the past two weeks? Yes, and that’ll be what dooms both of their fantasy values.

Through four weeks, Andrews is 23rd among tight ends in routes run with 81. Likely is 28th with 76. Likely has a 6.6 expected half-PPR PPG average; however, 17.9 of his 26.3 expected points were accrued in Week 1. That means his expected half-PPR PPG over the past three weeks is just 2.8. Andrews’ expected half-PPR PPG sits at 3.2 for the season.

Neither of these two players can be started right now. Likely can be cut. If you're holding onto Andrews, it's to hope for a big guy that you can use to sell him. This situation is bad and is unlikely to get better.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

With Brandin Cooks now set to miss the next few weeks, Ferguson should be treated as a top-5 tight end moving forward. Among 29 tight ends with at least 10 targets, Ferguson is second with a 29% target rate and third with a 20.9% target share. His yards per route run average is 2.01, ranking fifth among that qualifying group.

Behind CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys offense is desperate for another pass-catcher, and he's been just that for the past year. It's continued into the 2024 season, with him posting a first-read target share of 19.8%. That ranks fourth among tight ends.

Through four weeks, Ferguson has one of the best utilization profiles for any tight end thus far. He needs to be in lineups every week. He should be viewed as a top-5 tight end with Kelce, Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Brock Bowers.

Erick All Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

All is a rookie with limited opportunities, but what he has done with them is impressive. He's run just 34 routes with a route share of just 22.8%. That's never going to get it done. However, among 29 tight ends with at least 10 targets, he ranks first in target rate (35%), third in yards per route run (2.41), and first in first downs per route run (0.147).

Along with those excellent metrics, All also ranks third in half-PPR fantasy points per route run (0.42) and first in expected half-PPR fantasy points per route run (0.52). All can't be started right now; even as a streamer, it's not a good bet, but if his route share begins to climb, All will be someone fantasy managers should keep their eyes on.

The tight-end position has been dreadful this season, and All has a glimmer of hope. Hopefully, Cincinnati will choose to give All more opportunities. Thus far, he's earned them.

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