X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Tight Ends Fantasy Football Outlooks and Trends For Week 9

Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The tight-end position has been as disappointing as ever. Things don't ever really change. The position continues to leave fantasy managers wanting more. The problem is, it likely isn't going to happen this season.

In this article, we'll examine four tight ends whose values have risen or fallen in the past few weeks. Through this in-depth exercise, we'll determine what to do with these four particular tight ends and how we should value them for the rest of the season.

To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Does This Mark the End for Mark Andrews?

The Baltimore Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson this week, which will surely shake up Baltimore’s offense, but what does it mean for Andrews?

To put it bluntly, fantasy managers should be very concerned. Andrews has had a resurgent past four weeks, which has seen his half-PPR PPG average increase to 12.9. It had been at 2.4 PPG the first four weeks of the season. A lot of that production, 46.3%, has come from four touchdowns.

His route participation rate in Weeks 5-7 was similar to that in Weeks 1-4, indicating that increased production is likely more a hot stretch than things to come. It should be noted that his route participation finally crossed the 70% threshold in Week 8 for the first time this season.

Still, his snap share and route participation rate are far below what fantasy managers have come to expect from Andrews, and that was before the team traded for Johnson. This season, Baltimore has been in 11 personnel just 28.1% of the time, the lowest in the NFL.

This trade could increase its 11 personnel utilization, resulting in even lighter boxes for Derrick Henry. For Andrews, however, this could mean fewer snaps. Andrews has been in the slot for 57.1% of his snaps. When the Ravens do go 11 personnel, they often use Andrews as their big slot receiver and Isaiah Likely as their in-line tight end. With Johnson on board, the team could utilize Zay Flowers, a quick-twitchy athlete, in the slot instead of Andrews.

Ignoring that there’s a good chance that his routes and snaps go down further from this trade, we haven’t touched on the increased target competition, which is a big deal. Baltimore is 31st in pass attempts, averaging 29 passes per game.

Flowers is averaging 7.63 targets per game. Johnson is averaging 8.29. From 2020-24, Johnson has averaged 8.89 targets per game. Based on this, it shouldn’t be shocking to see Flowers and Johnson command 50% of the target share moving forward.

This offense could look very similar to Philadelphia's, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith dominating the target share. That greatly hinders Dallas Goedert, who is still in his prime. Andrews is not anymore. Andrews now drops to No. 3 on Lamar Jackson’s target hierarchy, and on a team that only passes the ball 29 times, that’s a major red flag. Not only that but how sure are we that he’ll always be the No. 3?

Right now, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely have a higher target per-game average than Andrews. While Andrews has come on in recent weeks, even if he’s solidified his place ahead of those two guys, he still shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-TE2.

This trade could spell disaster for Andrews’ fantasy value for the rest of the season. He’s lived off touchdowns the past four weeks, but with this trade shrinking his potential volume, he becomes even more touchdown-dependent. If you can sell him, you should sell him. Now.

 

Is Cade Otton a League Winner?

I’m not sure how good Otton is. He’s certainly good enough to take advantage of an incredible situation, that’s for sure. Jake Ferguson was in a similar spot last year. Austin Hooper did that in Atlanta. I’d advise caution on putting Otton up with the elite tight ends, but his situation is as elite as they come.

Ferguson is an excellent comparison to Otton. Both tight ends lacked target competition from any receivers. While Ferguson has CeeDee Lamb, Otton has no true receiver competition, although Mike Evans will eventually return. Both offenses have been extremely pass-heavy, not only in the raw numbers of pass attempts but also in pass rate over expected and neutral-situation pass rates. Both teams lean on their passing offense in a big way.

They also have quarterbacks who are balling out. That isn’t true for Ferguson this year, but it was the past two seasons when he was a fantasy darling. Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind this year. With Chris Godwin done for the year and Evans on the mend until Week 12, including their Week 11 bye, Otton should stay very involved in the passing game for the rest of the season.

In Week 7, Godwin played 85% of the snaps before getting hurt late. Evans played just 28%. Tampa Bay was trailing Baltimore early, forcing the Buccaneers to pass. Due to this, Mayfield finished with 45 pass attempts. Otton did his part.

He had 10 targets, eight receptions, and 100 yards, finishing with 14.0 half-PPR points and a 22.2% target share. Evans and Godwin combined for 12 targets, eight receptions, 90 yards, and one touchdown. The following week, the first game without either standout receiver, Tampa Bay still passed the ball at an incredibly high rate. Mayfield finished with 50 pass attempts for Tampa Bay, again playing catch-up to the Atlanta Falcons.

Otton had 10 targets, nine receptions, 81 yards, and two touchdowns en route to 24.6 half-PPR points and a 20.0% target share. The target shares of 20.0% and above are outstanding, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Mayfield to continue throwing the ball 45 and 51 times per game.

Before these two games, Tampa Bay averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game. It averaged 47.5 attempts in Weeks 7-8. Assuming that levels out in the coming weeks, Otton’s target volume will also decrease.

Due to his environment, Otton has moved onto the cusp of the top-12 tight-end rankings for the rest of the season. I could reasonably see him ranked between TE11 through TE14. Given that and his production over the past two weeks, he might be a great sell-high candidate.

If you can trade Otton for someone like Dalton Kincaid and get an upgrade somewhere else in your starting lineup, I would do that. Otton will be a solid pickup, but he isn’t a league winner. Tight ends rarely are.

 

Is the Real League Winner Evan Engram?

Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone and being done for the year could have major implications for Engram. Over the past two seasons, Engram has played 16 games with Kirk and five without. The splits, courtesy of RotoViz, can be seen below.

Five games are a small sample, but the results are mind-blowing. Engram saw a 73.3% increase in his half-PPR PPG average. He also experienced a 44.6% increase in targets, a 41.1% increase in receptions, a 45.7% increase in yards, and a 400% increase in touchdowns per game.

Engram's 14.84 half-PPR PPG average without Kirk would make him TE2 for the season. That number would be 4.0 more PPG (37% more) than TE3 and 7.1 more PPG (92%) than TE12.

Since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 6, Engram has racked up 20 targets. He’s averaged 6.7 targets per game, putting him on pace for 113 targets. That was with Kirk on the field. His upside is even higher now.

Engram can potentially be a league winner for the rest of the season, especially with how putrid the tight-end position has been.

 

Are We Supposed to Keep Trusting Jake Ferguson?

Ferguson is currently tied for fourth in targets per game this season among tight ends, averaging 7.0 per game. He’s fifth in receptions per game with 5.17, but he’s just 10th in yards per game with 43.8. He’s currently just 16th with a 7.0 half-PPR PPG average.

Last year, he had 23 red-zone targets. This year, through six games, he has just three. That’s a decrease of 1.35 red-zone targets per game last year to 0.50 this year, a decrease of 170%. Fantasy managers may remember a similar trend last year.

In Weeks 1-6 last year, before the team’s Week 7 bye, Ferguson was averaging just 5.9 half-PPR PPG. Following the bye, Ferguson averaged 9.6 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 8-17, ranking as the TE7. Fantasy managers will hope a similar trend happens this season, and there’s reason to be optimistic.

Some of these numbers aren't all that different from this year. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 5.0 this year, and his yards per target average was 7.5. Ferguson had a much better second half of the season, and the hope is that this will happen again. No guarantee that will happen, but as of right now, fantasy managers need to continue starting Ferguson.

His volume and opportunities are elite. The Dallas offense has virtually no run game, and its defense has been suspect. This will continue to keep the Dallas offense extremely pass-happy. The lack of dependable options behind CeeDee Lamb will keep Ferguson busy. Hopefully, this will lead to some more fantasy points soon.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win More With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Freddie Freeman5 hours ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Ladd McConkey5 hours ago

Limited As Week 9 Prep Begins
Andrew Wiggins8 hours ago

Out Wednesday
Lauri Markkanen9 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday's Matchup With San Antonio
John Konchar10 hours ago

Available Wednesday Against Brooklyn
Ja Morant10 hours ago

Suiting Up Wednesday Versus Nets
Zach Edey10 hours ago

Available Wednesday
Josh Richardson10 hours ago

Continues To Sit Out
Josh Hart10 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
De'Andre Hunter11 hours ago

Unavailable On Wednesday
Isaiah Jackson11 hours ago

To Start On Wednesday
Jonathan Isaac11 hours ago

Available For Wednesday's Contest
LeBron James11 hours ago

Officially Active On Wednesday
D'Angelo Russell11 hours ago

Good To Go Versus Cleveland
Jaylin Williams11 hours ago

To Be Evaluated In A Month
Lamar Jackson11 hours ago

Dealing With Back And Knee Injuries
Myles Turner12 hours ago

Won't Play On Wednesday
Immanuel Quickley12 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Wednesday
T.J. Hockenson12 hours ago

Will Be A Full Go On Sunday
LeBron James12 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up Versus The Cavs
Brock Bowers13 hours ago

Considered "Fine", Expected To Play This Weekend
Tyrone Tracy Jr.13 hours ago

Progressing On Wednesday
Bryce Young13 hours ago

Will Start In Week 9
Adam Thielen13 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Jonathon Brooks14 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Wednesday
Dallas Goedert14 hours ago

Not Seen At Wednesday's Practice
Derek Carr14 hours ago

Expected To Play This Weekend
Samuel Honzek14 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
DK Metcalf14 hours ago

Will Not Practice On Wednesday
Michael Kesselring14 hours ago

Good To Go Wednesday
Vladimir Tarasenko14 hours ago

A Game-Time Call On Wednesday
NHL14 hours ago

Kaapo Kahkonen Makes Avalanche Debut On Wednesday
Miles Wood14 hours ago

To Miss 7-10 Days
Ross Colton15 hours ago

Out For 6-8 Weeks With A Broken Foot
Connor McDavid15 hours ago

Ruled Out For 2-3 Weeks
Scottie Barnes16 hours ago

Out At Least Three Weeks
Tim Stützle19 hours ago

Tim Stutzle Amasses Four Points In Big Win
Brandon Montour19 hours ago

Scores First Career Hat Trick
Chandler Stephenson19 hours ago

Doubles His Points Tally With Four Assists
Samuel Ersson19 hours ago

Picks Up Second Consecutive Win With A Shutout
Olli Määttä19 hours ago

Olli Maatta Shipped To Utah
Kasperi Kapanen20 hours ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury Tuesday
Jakob Chychrun20 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Lonzo Ball20 hours ago

Out At Least 10 Days With Wrist Injury
Jonathan Isaac20 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing A Fourth Consecutive Game
Goga Bitadze20 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Wednesday
Kevin Love20 hours ago

Still Not Ready To Make His Season Debut
Michael Kesselring1 day ago

Battling An Illness
Mathieu Joseph1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Bobby Brink1 day ago

Returns To Flyers Lineup
Juraj Slafkovsky1 day ago

Returns To Action Tuesday
Alexander Romanov1 day ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Jared Spurgeon1 day ago

Available On Tuesday
Stefon Diggs1 day ago

Officially Placed On IR By Texans
Bryan Rust1 day ago

Out On Tuesday, Considered Week-To-Week
Joe Flacco2 days ago

Will Start On Sunday Night Football In Week 9
Anthony Richardson2 days ago

To The Bench, Colts Will Start Joe Flacco
Diontae Johnson2 days ago

Being Shipped To Baltimore
Stefon Diggs2 days ago

Out For The Season With A Torn ACL
Diontae Johnson2 days ago

Trade, Seemingly Inevitable
Tyrone Tracy Jr.2 days ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Najee Harris2 days ago

Notches Third Consecutive 100-Yard Game
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron2 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Derek Carr3 days ago

Practicing Ahead Of Week 9
Jordan Love3 days ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Khamzat Chimaev3 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker3 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan3 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov3 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano3 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige3 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy3 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev3 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308
Ilia Topuria3 days ago

Defends Featherweight Belt In Highlight-Reel Fashion At UFC 308
NASCAR4 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Earns Best Qualifying Run in Over a Year at Homestead
Zane Smith4 days ago

Expect Zane Smith's Steady Consistency to Continue at Homestead
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Both Ryan Preece and Stewart-Haas Racing Seem Ill-Suited to Intermediates
Michael McDowell4 days ago

Couldn't Overcome Ford's Intermediate Speed Deficit in Homestead Qualifying
Joey Logano4 days ago

Team Likely to Ignore Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Looks to Clinch Rookie of the Year Award
Daniel Hemric4 days ago

Qualifies Ninth for Best Start of the Year
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Is Strong at Homestead, but Sometimes Struggles in the Clutch
Justin Haley4 days ago

Benefits in Qualifying From Spire Motorsports Speed
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Slowest Ford Regular in Homestead Qualifying
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Lacks Intermediate Track Consistency
Josh Berry4 days ago

Hopes to Stay Alive in Rookie Race at Homestead
NASCAR4 days ago

Is Bubba Wallace Worth Rostering For Homestead This Week?
Freddie Freeman5 days ago

Hits First Ever Walk-Off Grand Slam In World Series
Freddie Freeman5 days ago

Returns To Dodgers Lineup
Miguel Rojas6 days ago

Alex Vesia, Brusdar Graterol, Miguel Rojas Return To Dodgers Roster
Evan Phillips6 days ago

Not On Dodgers World Series Roster
Nestor Cortes6 days ago

On Yankees Roster For World Series
Robert Whittaker6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Three
Khamzat Chimaev6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Aleksandar Rakic6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Shara Magomedov6 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Tyreek?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (foot) has been one of the most disappointing players of 2024. He was universally drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts and was seen as a sure-fire league-winning pick. Even in the case of an injury to starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, he was expected to be startable. This […]


Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 9)

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're halfway through the fantasy football season, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value […]


Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 9 Include Caleb Williams, Alvin Kamara, DeVonta Smith, Josh Jacobs, more

What a week it was for fantasy goodness. Quarterbacks were on fire, and thus, so were offenses around the NFL. If you were on the right side of that output, then I commend you. If you received duds on your roster, then I feel your pain. This was a topsy-turvy week in the NFL and […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Buy/Sell For Week 9 Including Davante Adams, Chase Brown, J.K. Dobbins, Aaron Jones

We can't even begin discussing Week 8 without acknowledging National Tight Ends Day. Unless you started Jake Ferguson or Cole Kmet, you were happy with the output you got from your tight end last week. Don't expect to be as pleased this week -- we are much more likely to revert to the tight-end landscape […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 Waiver Wire Rankings - Fantasy Football Pickups Include Isaac Guerendo, Jerry Jeudy, Ricky Pearsall, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Cade Otton

The fantasy football regular season has about six weeks left. After an action-packed Week 8, it's time to scout the waiver wire to add players who can help fantasy teams make that playoff push. We are back with more waiver wire advice with our Week 9 fantasy football waiver wire rankings for 2024 to add […]


Rachaad White - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Cade Otton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 9

Week 8 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead. Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if […]


Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 9 (2024)

Congratulations on making it through eight weeks of the fantasy football season with FAAB dollars still in your pocket! No matter what your needs are, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages in fantasy football leagues using […]


Rome Odunze - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injuries

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Smash Starts for Week 9 Include Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, Ladd McConkey, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs

The WR position is in continual flux this season. With in-season trades and multiple injuries, the position has been anything but stagnant. This week added to the WR drama as Diontae Johnson was dealt to the Ravens after they collapsed against their division rivals. Stefon Diggs went down with a torn ACL, and Cooper Kupp […]


Stefon Diggs - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football WR Injury Reports: Week 9 Updates For Brian Thomas Jr., Stefon Diggs, Christian Kirk, Tee Higgins

A first for this season: Three top wide receivers from the same team suffered an injury on Sunday. Plus, a star wide receiver's season is over. It just keeps getting tougher out there. To keep close tabs on all of the news across the NFL, make sure to favorite or bookmark the fantasy football player […]


Tyrone Tracy - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 9 Updates for Christian McCaffrey, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jordan Mason, Kendre Miller

Below is our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 9, as of October 30. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 9, including Christian McCaffrey, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Jordan Mason, and Kendre Miller. As the fantasy football season continues, every decision, transaction, and lineup […]


Trey Hendrickson Cincinnati Bengals Defense - Fantasy Football DST Streamers, Rankings, Pickups

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 9, 10, 11, 12) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our fantasy football D/ST streamers and starts for Weeks 9, 10, 11, and 12 -- looking at the next four weeks and identifying the best D/ST matchups. If you like to stream defenses weeks in advance or are looking for a defense to pick up and play this week, you have come to […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Matchups to Target, Avoid (Week 9) - Offensive Line Champs and Chumps

Bye weeks are back in Week 9 with the 49ers and Steelers getting the week off. For many teams, it is time to scour the waiver wire again to try and make a push for the fantasy playoffs. Several teams entered Week 8 with offensive line injuries, but the Vikings suffered one of the worst […]