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The first few weeks of the 2024 season had many fantasy managers wondering why they ever invested in the tight-end position. However, in recent weeks, the position has looked much better. The return of Evan Engram and David Njoku has provided a jolt to the position, but Mark Andrews has also shown life. The question for fantasy managers is, can we trust this sudden increase?
In this article, we'll touch on a few tight ends who have recently seen their fantasy production spike and determine whether we should buy or sell the new and improved production. If we can determine whether the past production is predictive moving forward, we can make some shrewd decisions regarding buying and/or selling high or low.
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Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Should we buy Henry? I think we should. In the four games in which Jacoby Brissett played 100% of the snaps, the Patriots offense averaged 29.2 pass attempts, 149.5 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Brissett completed just 57.2% of his passes.
Since Drake Maye took over, they have averaged 35.0 pass attempts, 259.5 yards, and 2.5 touchdowns per game. He’s completed 65.7% of his passes. The Patriots passing game has gotten a serious jolt, and there is now a ceiling that fantasy managers can be excited about weekly.
How has this impacted Henry? From Weeks 1-5 with Brissett, Henry averaged 5.0 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 36 yards. He didn’t score once. In his two games with Maye, Henry has averaged 7.0 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 66.5 yards. He’s also found the end zone in one of those games.
look at this Hunter Henry usage
it's gorgeous pic.twitter.com/rezdnC3d8e
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 22, 2024
He averaged 5.2 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-5. He scored under 4.5 half-PPR points in four out of five games. Since Maye has been the starter, Henry has averaged 12.4 half-PPR PPG and has scored double digits in both contests.
While fantasy managers shouldn’t expect this kind of production to continue, Henry’s current role and environment give him a chance to continue being a positive asset for fantasy managers. The target competition in New England is minimal, giving him a clear opportunity for regular targets.
Over the past two weeks, Henry has had a 20% target share. He benefited from Demario Douglas (mostly) sidelined in Week 7 due to an illness, but even with his return, Henry should continue to be one of Maye’s top two target-earners.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
Brandon Aiyuk is out for the year, making George Kittle a great bet to finish as the TE1 this year. You can make the same case for Travis Kelce with Rashee Rice out. Then there's Brock Bowers and Trey McBride is still lurking, if only he could find the end zone. However, from now until the end of the season, it may very well be David Njoku.
Last year, from Weeks 8-17, Njoku finished as the TE1, averaging 12.9 half-PPR PPG. A lot of that production came after Joe Flacco took over at quarterback. From Weeks 13-17, with Flacco under center, Njoku averaged 15.2 half-PPR PPG. Fantasy managers are getting another quarterback change, this time to Jameis Winston.
Deshaun Watson had been one of the worst quarterbacks this season. It would be shocking if Winston did not significantly upgrade Watson’s performance. That alone would make Njoku a buy, but Njoku will be a certified alpha after the Amari Cooper trade.
Last week, in Cleveland’s first game without Cooper, Njoku had 14 targets. Yes, Cleveland passed the ball 52 times, a number fantasy managers shouldn’t expect moving forward. However, Njoku’s 26.9% target share is elite among receivers, much less tight ends. 37 of those 52 pass attempts came from Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Njoku still had 10 receptions, 76 yards, one touchdown, and 18.6 half-PPR points.
David Njoku's Week 7 usage was the 2nd-best TE game of the season at 22.4 expected half PPR points.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 21, 2024
Njoku is coming off a good game, but his value for the rest of the season is still not as high as it should be. Njoku is closer to being in the same tier as Kittle, Kelce, McBride, and Bowers than he is to that second group of tight ends, including Jake Ferguson and Evan Engram. He has league-winning potential for the rest of the season. He's a buy-high if you can.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Is his recent spike in production a mirage or a sign of things to come? He averaged 2.4 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-4. In the past three weeks, his PPG average has increased by 13.2. Some of that can be explained by him scoring three touchdowns in the last three games compared to zero in the first four.
However, there's more to it than that. In Weeks 1-4, he averaged 2.25 targets per game. That has increased to 4.33. Over 17 games, that would still amount to just 74 targets. So is his recent production a sign that things are moving in the right direction, or is it just noise? Sadly, it appears to be just noise.
In Weeks 1-4, his route participation rate was 56.3%. In the last three weeks, his route participation rate has decreased to 49.0%. Both numbers aren't anywhere near where we need them to be for him to be a consistent fantasy producer. While his target share has increased from 8.3% to 14.4%, this is still a long way from the target share he had in recent seasons.
There's been no real improvement to the role for Mark Andrews.
The last time his route participation was below 78% was in 2019. His rate sits at 59% in 2024. His target rate is way down too.
Target per route run rate by season:
25% - 2020
25% - 2021
26% - 2022
22% - 2023
16% -… pic.twitter.com/9a4DhAUFQ4— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 22, 2024
We've seen a spike in production, but unfortunately, we shouldn't take too much from that. In the past three weeks, Andrews has averaged 14.7 yards per catch, which is near his career average of 12.8.
He's also scored three touchdowns on 13 targets, a 23% touchdown rate. Before the 2024 season, his career touchdown rate sat at 7.1%. This will be your best chance to sell high on Andrews; if you can, you should take advantage.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts, like Andrews, has seen his half-PPR PPG average increase significantly over the past three weeks. In Weeks 1-4, he averaged 5.1 PPG; from Weeks 5-7, he averaged 10.3 PPG. We've already discussed how Andrews' spike is just noise, but what about Pitts' surge?
Unlike Andrews, fantasy managers should be more optimistic about Pitts' recent improvement sticking around. His route participation rate has increased from 67.5% to 76.5%. With Atlanta also leaning into its passing game more over the last three weeks and his increased route participation rate, his total number of routes per game has risen from 21.2 to 33.7. That's huge!
So he's getting more utilization and opportunity, which is excellent. On top of that, he's earning more volume, too! From Weeks 1-4, his target share was 10.9%. Over the past three weeks, it's at 17.6%. His target rate has also significantly increased, from 15% to 22%. His yards per route run average has also increased from 1.24 to 2.21.
Kyle Pitts average depth of target, by year:
2021: 10.8
2022: 13.8
2023: 11.4
----
2024: 7.8— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) October 21, 2024
Fantasy managers have been hoping Pitts would get easier targets after years of being used as a downfield threat. The tweet above evidences that is happening so far through 2024. Pitts' recently improved PPG average can be explained by the change in his utilization and how Atlanta's offense operates. Due to that, fantasy managers can be more confident that his recent surge sticks long-term.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
Fant has averaged 8.9 half-PPR PPG over the past two weeks. He's caught all 10 of his targets for 128 yards. However, before this two-week burst, Fant averaged just 4.1 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 1-5. While no fantasy manager will view Fant as a top-12 or weekly starter after these two games, has his recent surge moved him into the competent TE2 range where he's a strong streamer and worthy of a spot on your bench?
We've seen some of his advanced metrics increase over these two sample sizes, but even with the increase, they still leave Fant as a boom-or-bust option. In Weeks 1-5, his route participation rate was 61.9%. It increased to 66.3% over the past two weeks, which is a good sign, but it's still not as high as we'd like to see it. Similarly, his target share increased from 9.0% to 12.3%. You love seeing it moving forward, but 12.3% still leaves much to be desired.
Fant's target rate increased from 13% to 18%, and his yards per route run average has gone from 0.96 to 2.25. Fant is more involved in the Seattle offense than in recent seasons, but it's still not where fantasy managers can trust his fantasy production.
Fantasy managers should pay attention to DK Metcalf's status this upcoming week. He did not practice yesterday, and he's been diagnosed with a Grade 1 MCL sprain. If Metcalf is out, Fant's streamer status will improve quite a bit. If Metcalf is active again this weekend, fantasy managers can likely find better streamers on the waiver.
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