Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 10

The Raiders, Packers, Seahawks, and Browns are all on bye this week. That eliminates three tight ends who would otherwise have to start: David Njoku, Brock Bowers, and Tucker Kraft. In this article, we'll identify some strong and shaky tight-end starts for Week 10.

There are certainly some must-start tight ends, but this position can be so finicky week to week. Matchups can play such a pivotal role in tight-end production week to week. In Week 10, we have nine weeks of data to determine which matchups we should target and avoid.

We also know that a large portion of tight-end scoring comes from touchdowns, so it's crucial to target tight ends on high-scoring offenses and whose teams have higher implied point totals, increasing the potential for a touchdown. To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

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Best Matchups for Week 10

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals

George Kittle also has one of the best matchups this week, going against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. However, fantasy managers are starting Kittle, no matter who he's playing.

Gesicki, however, isn't a set-it-and-forget-it tight end, but he needs to be in lineups this week. The Bengals face off against the Ravens, who have been one of the most significant pass-funnel defenses in the NFL.

78.7% of the yards and 75% of the touchdowns that Baltimore's defense has given up have come via the pass. It has allowed the most passing yards and the fewest rushing yards. This game also has a 53.5 implied point total, the highest among this week's slate of games. This should be a high-scoring affair, and when teams score against Baltimore, it's due to them passing the ball.

It's not surprising, then, that Baltimore has allowed a lot of points to tight ends. Through the first nine weeks of the season, the Ravens defense allows 10.3 half-PPR PPG to opposing tight ends, the 11th most in the NFL this season.

Mike Gesicki has a 24% first-read target rate in four games without Tee Higgins

(Source: @FantasyPtsData)

For reference, here are the season-long leaders at TE:
29% - Trey McBride
27% - George Kittle
26% - Travis Kelce
26% - Evan Engram
24% - Brock Bowers https://t.co/MVNfKmTxk7

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 6, 2024

Also, Tee Higgins has been ruled doubtful and is unlikely to play. Over the four games Higgins has missed, Gesicki has averaged 12.3 half-PPR PPG. He scored over 8.8 half-PPR points in three out of four and scored 24.5, a legit ceiling outcome last week. He has five or more receptions in three out of four games and more than 70 yards in three out of four. Gesicki is arguably a top-5 play this week with "the" TE1 upside for Week 10. He's a must-start.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

While the Colts have allowed the 12th-fewest points in the league this year, they've hemorrhaged yardage, giving up the fourth most. Specifically, they've allowed the 13th-most passing touchdowns through the air. The Bills have the fifth-highest implied point total for the week at 25.5.

The Colts have been one of the most generous defenses to opposing tight ends this season. They allow the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends at 12.4 half-PPR PPG. Kincaid has been a slight disappointment this season, but this is one week where Kincaid can and should be started with confidence.

Dalton Kincaid in Week 9:

- Team-high 32 routes run on 40 dropbacks
- Double-digit targets for just the second time in his career
- Career-best 55% air yardage share, first time over 40%

7.2 PPR points 🙈

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 3, 2024

On top of that excellent matchup, Keon Coleman appears unlikely to play this weekend. Amari Cooper was inactive last week but has yet to find his footing in the Buffalo offense. He was limited to start the week, but it is yet to be seen if he is 100%.

With Coleman likely out this week and Cooper potentially less than 100%, Kincaid could be more featured than usual. That possibility in an excellent matchup presents a potential spike week for Kincaid.

Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins

The game between the Dolphins and Rams presents one of the most fun fantasy matchups in Week 10. Both teams are in the top 10 for implied point totals for Week 10. Miami comes in at No. 10 with an implied point total of 24.5. This game is tied for second for the highest combined implied point total at 50.5, presenting a high probability for a potential shootout.

The Rams also have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing the 11th-most points and the ninth-most total yards. Against the pass, they've allowed the 10th-most passing yards and sixth-most passing touchdowns. It's a great matchup for Smith, which gives him some strong streaming potential.

Dolphins' target totals on 128 Tua Tagovailoa pass attempts this season:

32 - Tyreek Hill (25%)
26 - De'Von Achane (20%)
20 - Jonnu Smith (15.6%)
17 - Jaylen Waddle (13.2%)
7 - Raheem Mostert (5.5%)

— Mark Dankenbring (@MarkDank) November 5, 2024

Smith has only averaged 5.15 half-PPR PPG in Tua Tagovailoa's four starts but has a 15.6% target share on Tagovailoa's pass attempts this season. Smith is in his first year with the Dolphins, which could explain his slow start, even with Tagovailoa under center.

However, Smith had six targets in both contests over his last two games with Tagovailoa under center. He's also recorded nine total receptions over the past two weeks. That's quality volume for a tight end, and in a positive matchup with a strong chance for a shootout, Smith is an appealing start if you're desperate.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

As mentioned under Gesicki, this game has major shootout potential. The Ravens have a 30.0 implied point total, which is the most for Week 10. Their game against the Bengals also has the highest combined implied point total at 53.5. There should be no shortage of touchdowns in this game.

The Bengals defense has allowed the 13th-most passing yards and touchdowns this season. They are also giving up the eighth-most points on the season. This is an excellent matchup for Andrews. If there's a concern for Andrews, it's that Diontae Johnson should be more up to speed with the Baltimore offense and could significantly eat into Andrews' target volume.

Big bump for Mark Andrews since his route participation *should* spike. https://t.co/lw1f10wYAp

— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) November 6, 2024

With Isaiah Likely ruled out, Andrews' snap and route share should increase. Baltimore has utilized a tight end by committee this season, but with Likely out of the way, Andrews should see more opportunity this week than he has this season.

Andrews has a 54.5% route share for the season, while Likely is at 50.8%. With Likely out for Week 10, we should see Andrews' route share approach 70% in a great matchup with shootout potential.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

Hockenson returned in Week 9, but now that he has one game under his belt this season, fantasy managers should feel more confident starting him this week. It's also a great matchup for Hockenson. The Vikings are playing the Jaguars, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season at 11.0 half-PPR PPG.

TJ Hockenson (ACL, MCL) was eased into his 2024 debut last night:

* 33-of-73 snaps (45%)
* 19 inline, 14 slot/wide
* 24 routes on 39 Darnold dropbacks (61%)
* 4 targets for an 11% share
* 3-27-0 result

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 4, 2024

The Jaguars pass defense has been among the worst in the NFL this season. It has given up the second-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns. Minnesota is tied for the sixth-highest implied point total for the week at 25.0. The combined implied point total is 46.5, indicating a solid chance for a shootout.

Assuming his route participation and snap share increases in his second game back, Hockenson is in a great spot to produce for fantasy managers. There is a slight concern that Minnesota could run away with this contest, limiting its passing volume, but the potential for a ceiling week is worth the risk.

Other Strong Starts:

• Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
• Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Worst Matchups for Week 10

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Many things are working against LaPorta this week. First, Jameson Williams is set to return from his two-game suspension. Williams' ascension this season has significantly hindered LaPorta's production and target volume.

Sam LaPorta had a 33.3% target share with Jameson Williams OUT in Week 8.

From Weeks 1-7 with Williams in the lineup, LaPorta had a 9.9% target share.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) October 30, 2024

Williams' return alone should give fantasy managers reservations about starting LaPorta. It certainly eliminates the possibility of starting him with confidence. The matchup this week is arguably one of the worst in the NFL. The Texans have allowed the fewest points to opposing tight ends this season. Tight ends have scored just 5.1 half-PPR PPG against the Texans.

Their pass defense has been one of the best in the league. They've allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards. However, if there's one silver lining, they're tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed. Houston allows a completion percentage of just 54.9%, which is the best in the NFL.

This is a terrible matchup. Williams is back. If Nico Collins cannot return from IR this week, it seems highly unlikely that C.J. Stroud will be able to keep up with Jared Goff and the rest of the Detroit offense. That could result in a run-heavy game plan for the Lions.

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Stefon Diggs missed last week because of a torn ACL. Nico Collins has missed four games due to a hamstring injury. Tank Dell has been returning from a broken leg and an offseason shooting. He's not been himself. All of that has, theoretically, created a more fantasy-friendly target environment for Schultz. It hasn't materialized.

He has just one game with more than 5.0 half-PPR points this season. He has five games with fewer than 4.0 half-PPR points this season. Collins is eligible to return from IR, although he did not practice yesterday, and it still seems up in the air that he'll be able to get back on the field. If Collins is back, Schultz should be removed entirely from starting consideration. Even if Collins is out again, the matchup makes Schultz difficult to trust.

Detroit has allowed the second-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season at just 5.3 half-PPR PPG. Detroit has given up the ninth-most passing yards this season, but it has also given up a low of six passing touchdowns, which is tied for second in the league. With virtually no touchdown potential, Schultz's ceiling is nonexistent.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

There's just no way fantasy managers can trust Ferguson in Week 10. Dak Prescott will not be under center. Instead, it'll be Cooper Rush who starts for the Cowboys. Due to that, the Cowboys have the fifth-lowest implied point total of the week at just 17.75.

Dallas plays against the Eagles this week, and they've been one of the worst matchups for opposing tight ends. Philadelphia has allowed just 5.9 half-PPR PPG, the fourth lowest in the NFL. Philadelphia has given up the fifth-fewest passing yards and is tied for the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed.

It would've been a bad matchup if Prescott was starting, but with him out, fantasy managers might be best avoiding him altogether.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is banged up and was limited yesterday due to an upper-body injury. If Lawrence isn't 100%, Jacksonville's passing offense could be limited. That's terrible news because Minnesota has already been stingy with opposing tight ends. Minnesota is allowing just 7.8 half-PPR PPG, the 10th fewest in the NFL.

While the Vikings have allowed the 10th-most passing yards and are tied for the ninth-most passing touchdowns, things haven't come easy. Minnesota's defense allows just a 63.9% completion percentage, tied for 10th lowest in the NFL. It has also intercepted 13 passes and has 53 pass deflections, the most in the league. The 81.8 quarterback rating Minnesota has allowed is the eighth lowest.

There are not many good options for tight ends, and Engram is still destined to see ample targets this week. That could be especially true since Jacksonville is a 4.5-point underdog. That could lead to a pass-heavy game plan for the Jaguars this weekend. Fantasy managers should still be starting Engram, but temper expectations.

Other Shaky Starts:

• Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
• Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

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