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It's tough to navigate the tight-end position in fantasy on a good day. But as we head into the NFL playoffs, those playing in playoff contests are left to choose between 12 tight ends this week. Luckily, that is where I come in.
Do you go with Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft? Can you trust Dalton Kincaid, after he left very little to be desired for much of the season? Do the Rams even have a tight end on their roster?
Let's run it back with your RotoBaller starts and sits at the tight end position for Wild Card Weekend.
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Wild Card Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
T.J. Hockenson - TE, Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
I haven't been big on T.J. Hockenson this season. Since returning from injury, his numbers still have not recovered to the pre-injury production we are accustomed to. That said, they haven't been bad either. From Week 9 onwards, after rejoining the Vikings lineup, Hockenson has averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, with four of his nine performances resulting in double-digit fantasy production.
Playing matchups is beneficial to fantasy managers in a position with so much week-to-week variance and uncertainty. Hockenson's matchup this week against the Rams is the most favorable on the docket.
Over the 2024 season, the Rams have surrendered 1,101 receiving yards and seven touchdowns to the position. The 15.59 fantasy points that defensive futility yielded are the second-most and the most amongst teams in the playoffs.
Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
After a slow start to the 2024 season, in which Andrews averaged just 3.1 fantasy points per game over the first month, the Ravens tight end got healthy and finished off the season strong. Since Week 5, Andrews's 160.9 fantasy points are the sixth most amongst his peers at tight end university. His 13.4 fantasy points per game over that period is TE7 amongst those who played in at least six contests.
Lamar throws a dime on the run to Mark Andrews!
📺: #CLEvsBAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/cJPw8wb6WL— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2025
Currently, Andrews is on a heater, having recorded at least 10 fantasy points in each of his last six contests, increasing that average to 14.8 fantasy points per game.
The primary reason for the success is touchdowns. Andrews has 11 touchdowns over his previous 12 games, and because of that, he has finished outside the top 12 fantasy tight ends just twice over that period, including a 13.8-point fantasy outing in Week 16 when he last met the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is another good matchup for opposing tight ends, allowing 14.35 fantasy points per game to the position this season and 19.28 fantasy points from Weeks 15 through 18. In that four-week sample, the Steelers' defense conceded 280 receiving yards on 31 receptions and three receiving touchdowns.
Zach Ertz - TE, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Father time remains undefeated; however, Zach Ertz has found a way to turn back those hands a little longer. Ertz enters the playoffs, finishing as the TE7 with 162 fantasy points and an average of 10.1 fantasy points per game over 16 contests. Since Week 11, Ertz has averaged 13.5 fantasy points and has produced 12 or more fantasy points in five of his last seven outings.
On the season, Ertz finished with 64 receptions, 596 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns, and this week faces a very friendly pass defense in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers held Erz in check back in Week 1 but since have allowed 1,144 yards on 102 receptions and five scores. Those 14.02 fantasy points per game are the eighth-most this season and third-most among teams in the playoffs.
Marcus Mariota ---> Zach Ertz TD!#RaiseHailpic.twitter.com/YpibvAmrkl
— COMMANDERS FOOTBALL (@HogsHaven) January 5, 2025
Wild Card Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Tucker Kraft had a very good season. There was a point this season in which he appeared to be a league winner, as he averaged 14.9 fantasy points between weeks four through eight. Then we were all reminded why we couldn't have good things, especially at the tight end position, as Kraft finished the season averaging 7.4 fantasy points over the final three weeks (I'm not including Week 18).
Again. Kraft has had a successful 2024 campaign. He's proven to be the Packers' TE1 for the foreseeable future.
Looking strictly at the numbers, Kraft hasn't finished as a top 12 fantasy tight end since Week 14, has four or fewer receptions in five straight contests, and has only topped five receptions in a game twice this season. The last time the Packers and Eagles met, it kicked off the 2024 NFL season, and Kraft would record two receptions on three targets for 37 yards.
Philadelphia is a wasteland for fantasy points. The tight end position is no different, as the Eagles allowed the second-fewest throughout the season, just 9.14 per game, while surrendering just 591 receiving yards, which is less than 35 receiving yards per game.
Dalton Schultz - TE, Houston Texans s. Los Angeles Chargers
Even when you remove Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell from the fantasy equation, the answer is still not Dalton Schultz. After finishing 2023 as the TE10 with 150.5 fantasy points, Schultz has been one of the biggest letdowns, finishing with 118.2 fantasy points (TE20).
The Texans' tight end has produced just a pair of double-digit fantasy performances this season, and since the Texans' Week 14 bye, has averaged 7.2 fantasy points per contest, a number propped up by that 15.5-point outing in Week 16.
I'm looking at matchups in the playoffs, and the Chargers are tough on opposing tight ends. From weeks 14 through 17, the Chargers allowed just 10.20 fantasy points per game to the position, ninth-fewest. Over the season, they have been more generous, allowing 10.73 fantasy points per game. That kind of consistency makes it easy to fade Schultz this week.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
To answer the earlier question, you can not trust Dalton Kincaid.
First, Kincaid finished as the TE26 in fantasy. Sure, he missed three games, but his 7.8 fantasy points per game was TE20. At least eight tight ends are playing in the postseason, which averaged more fantasy points per contest this season than Kincaid. Kincaid hasn't posted a game with more than 10 fantasy points since Week 8 and only has three such games all season.
Second, the Denver Broncos allowed just five receiving touchdowns to the tight end position this season and gave up just 47 receiving yards per game through 17 contests. When you calculate that in terms of fantasy, that works out to 11.91 fantasy points per game.
There's no denying his talent, but better options are available this weekend to fantasy managers. Ones that have proven their worth this fantasy season.
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