RADIO
Every week we ask ourselves, how can it get any worse? Well, it's the Divisional Round this week, and if you are playing in any playoff challenges, you are now restricted to only eight tight ends.
It may seem like a lose-lose situation this week, but as we dig through the numbers and matchups, we find some solid options available. There are also a couple of tight ends facing matchups that fantasy managers should avoid altogether.
Here are your RotoBaller starts and sits at the tight end position for Divisional Weekend.
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Divisional Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
Travis Kelce is washed. Kelce is too old. Taylor Swift has ruined Kelce.
Travis Kelce seems ready for the playoffs 😅 pic.twitter.com/7cXHvIQOUD
— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) January 8, 2025
Kelce is arguably having his worst season ever. Yet, he finished as the TE5, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. That's more points per game than Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Pittman Jr., to name a few.
Kansas City doesn't care much for the regular season. For them, it's all about history and that first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. I'm old enough to remember Kelce's 355 receiving yards and three touchdowns in four games last postseason. With Marquise Brown getting more involved and DeAndre Hopkins as a viable threat, the Texans will have their hands full.
Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. was named to the First-Team All-Pro just a few weeks back. Stingley continued his dominance against the Chargers, allowing just five receptions for 30 yards after being targeted 10 times. Stingley likely matches up on the outside this week against Hopkins or Brown, meaning Kelce could be targeted early and often.
Dalton Schultz - TE, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has been much better in recent weeks in defending the opposition's tight end. However, they still allowed 14.9 fantasy points per game this season to the position. When playing the Chiefs, teams targeted their tight end on 136 occasions in 17 contests, completing 106 passes for 1,191 yards. That 1,191 receiving yards conceded to the position was the most in the NFL this past season.
Last week, Dalton Schultz caught just two passes for 23 yards and 4.3 fantasy points. Schultz has only produced 10 or more fantasy points in two of 17 games this season, so it may be difficult for some to put their faith in the Texans pass catcher. In one-and-down contests, Schultz is the perfect fantasy patsy. Few expect the Texans to advance this week, and the matchup does have potential.
There is plenty of hate out there for Schultz this season, and much of it is justified, considering the production has not matched the $36 million deal he inked in the offseason. But Schultz could be a hero, just for one day.
Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Despite finishing with just two grabs for 27 yards last week, no tight end has been as hot as Mark Andrews has been in recent weeks. From Week 6 through Week 18, Andrews produced 166.8 fantasy points while averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game. In that period, Andrews would go on to haul in 11 touchdown grabs over 12 contests, solidifying his reputation as one of the elite tight ends this season after a slow start.
Over the last 12 games, Andrews has been Jackson's top target, earning 4.6 targets per game and turning those opportunities into 553 yards and an 18.5% Ravens' receiving market share. Those 11 touchdowns have accounted for 34.4% of the team's receiving touchdown market share, statistically topping the likes of A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Lamar Jackson lets the ball fly before Mark Andrews is even looking back. The chemistry between these two is off the charts.pic.twitter.com/y5FOrXLq54
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) January 4, 2025
Of the teams that qualified for the postseason, only the Los Angeles Rams had allowed more fantasy points since Week 14 than the Bills have. In those final four weeks of the fantasy football regular season, the Bills allowed 18.20 fantasy per game, yielding 28 receptions, 308 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdown grabs.
Look, the Ravens are going to run the ball, but when they get down to the red zone, Andrews will be ready when his number is called yet again.
Divisional Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Zach Ertz - TE, Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
From one of the worst teams this postseason defending the tight end position to one of the best. Detroit has been a difficult matchup for much of the season, allowing 8.84 fantasy points per game, the fewest in the NFL. A deeper dive into the numbers shows that the Lions have allowed just three touchdown receptions and 665 receiving yards to the position.
As good as Zach Ertz has been this season, the odds are not in his favor. In what was a good matchup on paper last week against the eighth-friendliest fantasy defense against tight ends, Ertz would go on the catch just two of his four targets for 23 yards.
Jayden finds Ertz for a huge conversion on 4th and 5 ⛓️
📺: #WASvsTB on NBC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/IDEIyvF7uy— NFL (@NFL) January 13, 2025
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
Sam LaPorta's season has been the tail of two halves. LaPorta failed to record more than 10 fantasy points in a game until Week 6. Since Week 13, LaPorta hasn't had a game in which he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points. Patience still has a place in fantasy football, after all.
I understand if you want to take a chance on LaPorta this week. Since Week 13, LaPorta has accounted for 23.5% of the Lions' receiving touchdown market share, hauling in four of the six end zone targets he has seen. He has also seen his target share improve over this period, earning an 18.9% share.
All that looks good. However, the matchup isn't the greatest. Washington allowed 678 receiving yards and eight touchdowns to the position this season. In fantasy terms, that works out to 10.93 fantasy points per game, the 10th-fewest. Over the last four weeks of the fantasy football season, that number was even lower, as the Commanders limited the position to 9.88 fantasy points per game.
If you believe the Lions will win this contest, look elsewhere for your tight end needs this week and save LaPorta for another week.
Tyler Higbee/Davis Allen - TE, Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia
Detroit was the stingiest defense this season when it came to defending the tight end position. The second stingiest unit belonged to the Philadelphia Eagles, who held opposing tight ends to 9.14 fantasy points per game, allowing just 591 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
During Wild Card Weekend, Tucker Kraft finished with 7.6 fantasy points thanks to his five receptions for 26 yards, which aligns with Philadelphia's recent defensive track record. In the final four weeks of the fantasy football regular season, the Eagles allowed a league-low 5.43 fantasy points per game to the position.
Firing up Tyler Higbee feels like the ultimate "chasing the points" play this week. Against Minnesota, Higbee had five catches for 58 yards before exiting early with a chest contusion. His status for the Divisional Round is still up in the air. If Higbee were to miss this one, Davis Allen would be the next man up, and despite hauling in a Matthew Stafford touchdown pass, he'd also be the next man up on my fade list.
DAVIS ALLEN PLAYOFF TOUCHDOWN 🙌🙌🙌
📺: #MINvsLAR on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/IGAE5YVI48— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) January 14, 2025
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