Finding Tight End Breakouts And Busts – Week 3 Edition

Robert Lorge looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 3. He uses advanced stats for tight ends to find breakouts (champs) and fallers (chumps) to add or drop.

Here’s the thing, when it comes to tight ends ranked outside the top-six, there are going to be a lot of mistakes. The position is extremely volatile and even the best options are prone to some extremely big clunkers. Their roles can change significantly week-to-week. Very few guys have locked-in roles like Darren Waller and Travis Kelce. That’s why it’s so important to look past the box score when it comes to tight ends so fantasy managers can get a better sense of what’s going on.

I talked about this in last week’s article, but when it comes to tight ends, we’re chasing volume. Most importantly, we’re chasing opportunity. After Week 1 there was a lot of hype around Juwan Johnson of the Saints and Gerald Everett of the Seahawks, but looking at their volume, it put many holes into their season-long appeal. What fantasy managers really need to be focused on goes past touchdowns and targets, but how often are they on the field during passing downs and how many routes they are running per game.

The season is so young that trends and roles are still being defined. This is why it’s so important to look at the week-to-week fluctuation, so let’s get started. I'm going to do my best to touch on as many tight ends as possible, but if there's one I missed that you have questions about, don't be afraid to hit me up at @RobFFAddict on Twitter.

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Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks

In Week 1 it was the Gerald Everett and Will Dissly show at tight end for the Seahawks. Dissly was more involved the first game, running more routes and receiving more targets. However, it was Everett who snagged the red zone touchdown, which meant fantasy managers flocked to him.

In Week 2 though, it was just the Gerald Everett show. Unfortunately, that did not mean any fantasy production. After splitting snaps and routes ran almost straight down the middle in the opener, Everett out-snapped Dissly 43 to 26 in Week 2. Even better, Everett was the only tight end for the Seahawks to receive a target.

#Seahawks Week 1 TE route rates:

Will Dissly - 66%
Gerald Everett - 62%

Week 2:

Gerald Everett - 77%
Will Dissly - 23%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 20, 2021

Now, despite the positive trends in Everett’s usage, he only saw one target (which he caught for a measly three yards). Still, fantasy managers can take solace in the fact that Everett was on the field every single pass play for Seattle and ran a route on 28 of 31 attempts. That kind of usage should eventually pay dividends, especially with Seattle somewhat lacking a No. 3 target for Russell Wilson. The hope for fantasy managers entering the season was that Everett could be that player. In Week 1, it didn’t look like coaches were going to give him the chance, but that changed in Week 2.

Eventually, it’ll be on Everett to do something with that opportunity, but the change in how Everett and Dissly were used in Week 2 was a positive trend fantasy managers should take note of. There might just be hope for a breakout season for him yet.

Maxx Williams, Arizona Cardinals

Williams popped off in Week 2 catching all seven of his targets and racked up 94 scoreless yards. The question becomes is this a one-week outlier or something fantasy managers can expect moving forward. In 2020, the Cardinals’ tight ends combined for only 66 targets, but they did rack up 632 yards on just 47 catches. The volume is not appealing, but these stats show some level of upside with a 13.4 yard per reception average. The 2020 work was split between three guys and in 2021 that rotation has been lowered to just two.

While Williams’ production all came in Week 2, he has been the primary tight end used in the passing game all year. Through two weeks, the Cardinals have 68 pass attempts and Williams has been in on 56 of them, good for 82%. Out of those 56 pass plays, Williams has run a route on 46 of them, which leaves Williams running a route on just 67.6% of the total pass plays in Arizona. While fantasy managers may want to chase Week 2’s surprisingly good game, the numbers illustrate plenty of reasons to be cautious.

The fact that Williams is being used as the primary receiving tight end in Arizona is a good sign, but his use is not high enough where fantasy managers can confidently plug him into their starting lineups. With Hopkins, Kirk and the exciting young prospect Rondale Moore, there are a lot of other options for Murray to lean on before Williams. There's not enough opportunity for Williams to think Week 2 can be something that is worth chasing.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Fantasy managers saw Higbee's role and passing game usage decline in Week 2, which isn't ideal, but it's important to put everything into perspective. Higbee has still played 100% of the snaps through two weeks and that is excellent news moving forward. However, head coach Sean McVay knows the importance of running the football and has often centered his offenses around getting their ground game working.

In Week 1, he ran a route on 25 out of 26 pass attempts. That kind of opportunity is exactly what fantasy managers should be chasing. In Week 2, he ran a route on 23 of 30 pass plays. It may not appear like much, but he went from running a route on 96% of his pass plays in Week 1 to only 77% in Week 2. That's a significant decline in opportunity fantasy managers would be wise not to ignore.

In week 1 Tyler Higbee only blocked on 2 pass plays. This week he blocked on 7 of 32 which is the same ~21% he was blocking on last year.

Can't be blocking on 1 of every 4-5 pass plays. If you are counting on Higbee, you need last week's route running Higbee back.

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) September 21, 2021

For Higbee to hit his fantasy ceiling, fantasy managers need to hope his usage goes back to what we saw in Week 1. Not surprisingly, his production fell off hard. He went from five catches and 68 yards in Week 1 to one catch for just eight yards in Week 2. This illustrates the importance of chasing opportunity. His opportunity fell off a cliff in Week 2 and we see his fantasy production follow suit.

This isn't to say you should be dropping or trading Higbee by any means, but it illustrates the up and down nature of the tight end position and the importance of not only focusing on targets, but how often these players are actually a viable option on any passing play.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Knox is another player who saw a positive trend in his involvement in the passing game from Week 1 to Week 2. The Bills threw the ball 51 times in their opening matchup against the Steelers, but Knox was only on the field for 28 of them, a concerning statistic to say the least. He ran a route on 25 of those, but running a route on roughly 50% of the team's total pass attempts is simply not going to get it done for consistent fantasy production. Luckily for Knox and any fantasy managers that had the stones to start him in Week 1, the overall passing volume largely hid those concerns. He was able to reel in all four of his targets for 41 yards.

Week 2 produced a much better seasonal outlook. While the passing volume dropped considerably – from 51 to 33 pass attempts – that can largely be attributed to the lop-sided score. What fantasy managers will love to see, however, is Knox ran a route on 28 of those 33 attempts. That's a 35% increase from Week 1 to Week 2 in terms of his route share per pass attempt.

His Week 1 usage will lead to a lot of empty box scores, but if Knox's route participation stays at the 85% it was at in Week 2 combined with the pass-happy offense the Bills typically implement, fantasy managers might just have themselves another streamer to keep their eye on. This is a player fantasy managers need to keep on their radar moving forward to see if the usage we saw in Week 2 continues.

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts 

Doyle saw a lot more work in Week 2, which is great news for his fantasy prospects and for the hope fantasy managers might have another option at tight end. In Week 1, the Colts threw the ball 38 times. Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox split the passing work in a manner that would leave them both irrelevant for fantasy football purposes. Doyle ran 23 routes and Alie-Cox ran 18. Unsurprisingly, neither tight end was effective the first week of the season. Alie-Cox was unable to catch his lone target and Doyle caught three of his four targets for 21 yards.

Although most fantasy managers would like Alie-Cox to be given a chance at the full-time starter gig, if that isn't going to happen, we should at least be rooting for that to fall to Doyle. A tight end committee is bad for everyone, at least as it relates to fantasy football. In Week 2, we saw more of a one-man show.

Top-5 TEs in Week 2 Target Share

1.Travis Kelce 26%
2. TJ Hockenson 25%
3.Austin Hooper 24%
4.Jack Doyle 22%
5.Darren Waller 19%
T-5.Hunter Bryant 19%
T-5.Mark Andrews 19%
T-5. Maxx Williams 19%

— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) September 21, 2021

In Week 2, the Colts threw the ball 36 times, similar to their 38 in Week 1. However, this time instead of a 23-18 split in terms of routes run between Doyle and Alie-Cox, the split shifted in a big way to favor Doyle. In the second game of the season, Doyle ran 33 routes to Alie-Cox's 13. And once again, not surprisingly, the shift resulted in fantasy production. Doyle received eight targets and turned them into five catches for 64 yards.

The Colts do not have any established options in the passing game – although Pittman made a case for himself in Week 2 – but that lack of options leaves plenty of room for Doyle to be a tight end streamer should keep their eye on. He's not a sexy name by any means, but if his Week 2 usage continues, he could become a viable option in a passing game that lacks defined playmakers.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Despite Jonnu Smith being questionable entering the week and only playing 50% of the snaps, Henry still didn't receive as much attention as his teammate despite his 81% snap count. On the bright side, Henry was the primary receiving tight end in Week 2, but that looks a bit fake because Smith was not 100% healthy.

Mac Jones dropped back to pass 30 times in Week 2 and Henry was on the field for 100% of them. He ran a route on 83% of Jones' drop-backs. Yet he only received four targets compared to Smith's five, even though Smith ran a route on just 14 of the 30 pass plays.

The sample size at just two games is a rather small one, but the hope the offense would run through Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith has not yet come to fruition. All of the concerns fantasy managers had about these two players canceling each other has appeared to be true through two weeks. While Henry has run 15 more routes, he has three fewer targets and four fewer receptions. Henry is making up for that difference by averaging a sterling 14.6 yards per reception, which is a number that is unlikely to be sustainable throughout the season.

The coaching staff appears to be more willing to draw up specific plays to get the ball in Jonnu's hands. On his 14 routes in Week 2, he received five targets. That shows a concentrated effort to get him the ball, which is something of a silver lining for fantasy managers yet hoping Jonnu can separate himself from Henry at some point in the season. Right now neither player looks trustworthy and Henry appears to be the odd man out in a low-volume passing offense.

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

Hooper is a rather boring name in regards to the fantasy football tight end landscape, but let's face it, so is about every other name on the list. While Week 2 didn't provide the kind of increased usage we'd like to see as it relates to Hooper, it still resulted in him leading the Browns in targets. In fact, through two weeks, Hooper leads all Browns in targets and that can't be ignored.

In Weeks 1 and 2, fantasy managers have seen the tight end room in Cleveland largely split, which is typically not a good thing for anyone. That fact shouldn't be forgotten but it should also be noted that Mayfield targeted his tight ends on 57% of his pass attempts in Week 2.

In Week 1, David Njoku ran more routes than Hooper and had more receiving yards. In Week 2, however, Hooper ran 19 routes to Njoku's 15. Harrison Bryant also got into the mix with 11. This three-headed monster would certainly be one fantasy managers should be ignoring, but circumstances in their receiver room change the narrative a bit. Jarvis Landry is currently on short-term IR and Beckham is still working his way back from a torn ACL and is unlikely to be 100% in his first game back.

Some interesting notes:

- George Kittle (45 routes run) being targeted on 20% of routes compared to Deebo Samuel (52 routes run) at 38.5%, leading WRs. 📉

- Browns targeting TEs at the highest rate in the NFL at 48.5%. Landry injury = David Njoku, Austin Hooper. 📈

1/

— Kate Magdziuk (@FFballblast) September 22, 2021

If Mayfield continues to target his tight ends at such a high rate as indicated above, even though Hooper and Njoku are hurting each other's value, there might be enough work to go around. While Njoku has the higher upside without Landry in the lineup, Hooper could become Mayfield's No. 1 chain-mover and security blanket. That kind of role could be prosperous in any PPR setting.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

There was a lot of hope Zach Ertz would be cut or traded before the season started and fantasy managers would finally get to see Goedert fully unleashed. That didn't happen. And not only did that not happen, but Ertz is a major problem. The worst part is it doesn't look like a problem that is going to go away anytime soon.

Can see why Zach Ertz sticking such a problem for Dallas Goedert. PHL TE routes run yesterday on 30 Jalen Hurts dropbacks:

Zach Ertz 18
Dallas Goedert 16
Jack Stoll 0

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 20, 2021

In Week 2, fantasy managers actually had to deal with Ertz running more routes than Goedert. Why would any team do this? I have no idea. I'm not entirely sure there is a good reason, but it's irrelevant. It's happening. On the season, Goedert has run one more route – 41 to 40 – than Ertz. How concerning is that number?

Well, Hayden Hurst has run more routes than Goedert. Foster Moreau, the backup for the Raiders, is at 40. Some just disgusting names ahead of Goedert include Tyler Kroft, Maxx Williams, and CJ Uzomah. Remember what we're chasing? Opportunity. Right now, Goedert doesn't have that. Ertz is soaking up half of it.

On the season Goedert has seven targets. Ertz has four. This brings up problem No. 2. The Eagles have a low-volume passing attack. They are currently ranked 25th in pass attempts per game. That low volume coupled with having to share the position has sapped Goedert of any potential upside. Unless something changes, he's going to struggle finishing inside the top-12, a pretty big fall from his ADP where he was primarily drafted as the seventh tight end off the board.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Week 1 was a huge head-scratcher for fantasy managers. We saw Durham Smythe play more snaps and almost equal Gesicki in terms of routes run – 17 to 15. It was a huge red flag especially with Gesicki having played significantly fewer snaps than his counterpart. Week 2 was a step in the right direction, although to be fair Week 1 was pretty much rock bottom, so there was only one way for him to go. Nonetheless, fantasy managers got to see Gesicki used a bit more as they were anticipating when they drafted him.

Miami Dolphins Receiving Room 😔

DeVante Parker - 42 Routes - 9 Tgt - 10.7 PPR Pts
Jaylen Waddle - 40 Routes - 7 Tgt - 10.9 PPR Pts

Mike Gesicki - 35 RR(32 Slot) - 6 Tgt - 7.1 PPR Pts
Albert Wilson - 30 RR - 7 Tgt - 6 PPR Pts

Preston Williams - 13 RR - 3 Tgt. - 1.2 PPR Pts

— Cody Carpentier™ (@CarpentierNFL) September 20, 2021

The problem is it didn't really amount to any fantasy production. He did increase his routes run from 17 to 37, a huge jump. He also saw 32 of those 37 routes in the slot, which is the money spot for tight ends. With the increased opportunity, his volume increased too. He received six targets in Week 2, corralling three of them for 41 yards. While fantasy managers might use this as a game to feel good about Gesicki moving forward, I would caution the notion.

Tua fractured multiple ribs in Week 2 and is likely to miss several weeks. Jacoby Brissett is very limited in terms of his ability to throw the football. As if these issues weren't big enough on their own, Will Fuller is fully expected back into the lineup for their Week 3 matchup.

The danger with Fuller's return is it could push Waddle into the slot full-time, which would leave Gesicki fighting for relevance. Based on Week 1's usage, the Dolphins seem to favor Smythe as the in-line tight end, which makes sense because he's a far more capable blocker. If the Dolphins use 11-personnel it could be with Fuller and Parker outside, with Waddle in the slot and Smythe at tight end to help with pass protection and the run game. Even if that's not the default, Gesicki's slot snaps are likely to take a significant hit moving forward, and with it, his fantasy value.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

There's no way around it, Week 2 was ugly. The production wasn't there whatsoever, but the opportunity was. This is what we're chasing.

Here's the thing, Joe Burrow threw three interceptions. All of them on his side of the field and one was returned for a touchdown. The Bears only had to attempt 24 passes. The mid-game quarterback switch from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields didn't help either. I fully expect Fields to take this passing attack to a new level, but without the necessary practice reps that go to the starter during the week, it's always tough for any quarterback, much less a rookie to come into the middle of the game.

Cole Kmet is the definitive TE1 in Chicago.

🔻 7 targets vs. LAR in Week 1
🔻 73% snap share for Kmet versus 26.9% for Graham
🔻 Cleveland Browns have allowed 11th-most FPPG to
TEs (14.9) thru two weeks

Kmet ➡️ low-end TE1 streamer @ CLE in Week 3

— Matt MacKay (@Matt_MacKay_) September 21, 2021

Every tight end except Waller, Kelce, and maybe Hockenson is going to give you their fair share of stinkers. It's the nature of the position. Don't lose hope, especially with Fields starting at quarterback. Through two weeks, Kmet has run 52 routes to Jimmy Graham's 18. The Bears have thrown the ball 64 times, which means Kmet is out on a route 81% of the time. That's a solid number. That's the kind of opportunity we want to be chasing.

The passing offense has been stuck in neutral with Dalton. He's the only quarterback through two weeks who has not thrown the ball 15 or more yards down the field. His inability to threaten the defense vertically has allowed defenses to sit tight on all their underneath routes, which is not helping Kmet whatsoever. The hope is Fields' ability to throw the long-ball to Mooney and Robinson will open up the middle of the field for Kmet to do damage.

Fields' ability to keep plays alive and scramble outside of the pocket might also help Kmet. Tight ends are often a quarterback's best friend when they're in trouble because their routes tend to not be as deep as the wide receivers. If Fields finds himself in trouble, he might be looking Kmet's way more often than not.

Week 2 was not ideal, but the context make it more understandable. Kmet is the tight end in Chicago and with a new sheriff under center, we might yet see a second-year breakout of sorts after all.

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