Thursday Night Football Starts & Sits: Chargers vs Raiders

Week 15 starts with an absolute fantasy barn burner. It’s hard to imagine a better matchup to start (or continue) the fantasy playoffs. I hope you all had successful weeks last week and hopefully avoided facing off against the monster games of Derrick Henry and Miles Sanders.

Last week I was able to go two-for-two with my game picks in a very defensive matchup. This Thursday night game should be different - not only do we go from the elite coaching of Bill Bellicheck to Anthony Lynn and his mediocre ability to manage the clock, but we also see two of the league's most fantasy-friendly defenses. 

It’s not often we get a matchup where both teams are in the bottom five in points against. The Raiders will look to stay in the Wild Card hunt and rebound from a loss to the Colts. On the other side the Chargers are a team that has lost 8 of their last nine games by an average of a mere five points. I am sure this will create an opportunity for fireworks between these division rivals. So without further ado, I bring to you, your Thursday night football RotoBaller preview. 

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Monday 12/17 @ 8:20 PM EST

Notable Injuries:

• Keenan Allen (LAC, WR) - Hamstring - Active, Possible Snap Count
• Mike Williams (LAC, WR) - Back - Active, Possible Snap Count
• Austin Ekeler (LAC, RB) - Quadricep - Active
• Chris Harris Jr. (LAC, CB) - Foot - Active
• Hunter Henry (LAC, TE) - Hip - Active
• Joey Bosa (LAC, DE) - Shin - Active
• Nelson Agholor (LVR, WR) - Foot - Active
• Josh Jacobs (LVR, RB) - Ankle - Active
• Zay Jones (LVR, WR) - Ankle - Active

Must Starts

Justin Herbert (LAC, QB): I love this guy. The 2020 rookie class had a lot of offensive talent taken in the first round. Of these selections, Herbert was viewed as the most likely to “bust” especially compared to the elite prospects of Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow. Instead, Herbert has provided one of the best rookie seasons of all time and has shown no signs of slowing down. Earlier I pointed out Anthony Lynn’s clock management, however, outside of that, I think he is a very good NFL coach.

The team has built elite talents on both sides of the ball and if only a few games had bounced their way they would be in the conversation as a contender. Justin Herbert is coming into this matchup as the QB-eight in points per game and will be going up against the Raiders who allow the eighth-most passing yards per game. Although his last two weeks have been “disappointing” he still looks like an elite fantasy option in good matchups. I have Herbert as a top-five play this week, and he will hopefully start your week with a bang. 

Keenan Allen (LAC, WR): Wow. What a season it has been for Keenan Allen. It’s a true “chicken-egg” situation with his fantasy success. Has the elite route runner outdone himself and taken his own step forward, or has Herbert been the elite talent he has desperately needed under center? Thankfully, for fantasy, we don’t have to answer this question and instead can sit back and enjoy the show these two performers put on.

Here is Allen’s 2020 resume: he leads the league in targets, second in receptions to Stefon Diggs, and is seventh in receiving touchdowns at the position - Allen has been a monster. The icing on the cake is that the Raiders are allowing nearly 40 fantasy points a game to the WR position. For a guy averaging 11 targets per game, Allen is a top-five play at the position as well this week. Plus, I’m calling for the Pie Shop* to be open for the veteran WR.

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Austin Ekeler (LAC, RB): When I mentioned earlier about the Chargers surrounding Herbert with elite weapons, this is exactly what I meant. As the third Charger to make the “must-start” segment this week, Ekeler makes this section handly. Since returning he has not had a game below nine targets and has a game with 16 targets. To put this in perspective, over the last three games he has averaged 11.3 targets. If you compare this to the season averages of all players, it would give him the most targets per game at any position (0.22 targets ahead of his teammate Keenan Allen). Oh, I almost forgot - Ekeler rushes the ball too. Not only is he receiving WR-one targets, in the last three games he has also averaged nine rushes per game with 5.89 yards per carry. Against the Raiders who are allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position, Ekeler is exactly what managers want for the fantasy playoffs. 

Darren Waller (LVR, TE): Not many tight ends have made this section this season. However, Waller more than deserves this recognition. If it weren’t for Travis Kelce who is currently LEADING THE LEAGUE in receiving yards, Waller would be talked about as THE elite TE option. Sitting 31 points ahead of the TE-three (T.J. Hockenson) Waller has the second-most yards, targets, and receptions at the position. In all of these categories, he is second to Travis Kelce. Averaging nine targets a game and 63 yards per game, unless you’re against Kelce, Waller is a huge positional advantage over any opponent. I think the veteran TE finds the endzone for the eighth time this season and opens his own Pie Shop*. Start Waller with all the confidence in the world this Thursday. 

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (usually used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Derek Carr (LVR, QB): Unlike Herbert where I think he is a top-five play this week, Carr makes this section as a fantastic QB-two in two QB leagues. Carr is the QB-12 on the season and has been surprisingly good for fantasy purposes. Three of his last four games have been above 20 fantasy points including one game above 30. Unfortunately, the other game in this stretch was the fluke game against the Falcons where he scored a mere 0.9 fantasy points. However, I think that was a one-off as he has been great in good matchups. The Chargers are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to the QB position this season and the fifth-most points scored against. In a very important divisional home game, I think Carr is going to come through for fantasy. I have Carr as a top-12 play ahead of players like Phillip Rivers against Houston, Cam Newton against Miami, and Kirk Cousins against Chicago. 

Solid Options

Josh Jacobs (LVR, RB): It has been a very successful sophomore season for Jacobs and thankfully he is coming off of injury just in time for the fantasy playoffs. So far he is the RB-seven on the season, however, he only has 3 games over 15 fantasy points (Half PPR). This outlines that he has not had many “week-winning” performances, and instead been a very consistent fantasy producer. On top of his “lower” points per game, over the season Jacobs only has four games over four yards per carry. What has been his saving grace is that despite missing a week, he still has the fourth most rush attempts in the league.

I think Jacobs is a fantastic player and should be a “must-start” this week, especially against the team that is allowing the 12th most fantasy points to the RB position. However, unlike his RB-seven rank suggests, I think he should be treated more like a steady RB-two than RB-one ultimately making him a “solid option”. Thankfully since this game is on Thursday, you will be able to determine how much upside you’ll need based on his performance. 

Hunter Henry (LAC, TE): If it wasn’t for the performance gap between Henry and Waller this season, Henry could easily be a “must-start” in this year’s TE landscape. Henry is a very milk-toast TE-nine on the season. What makes him a “solid option” is that he is fifth at the position in total targets and fourth in receptions. For the tight end position, usage is key. With only three games below six targets this season, Henry should be started in all formats with an extra bump in PPR leagues. 

Nelson Agholor (LVR, WR): Somehow Agholor is arguably more fantasy relevant than he has ever been. Much to the disappointment of Brian Edwards truthers, Agholor has been Carr’s go-to receiver option. On the season he is the WR-33 (Half PPR) and has the 12th most receiving touchdowns at the position (7). Unfortunately, the Chargers are allowing the ninth fewest fantasy points to the position and makes it hard to rely on Agholor this week. However, I view him much like the next guy in this section.

Tyron Johnson (LAC, WR): This is a waiver-wire “solid option” for any desperate teams looking for a play (assuming Mike Williams is out). With Mike Williams leaving the last game with back injuries, Johnson was the receiver that stepped up as his replacement. Catching six of his seven targets for 55 yards and a TD, Johnson was clearly the second option at wide receiver. I have a lot of confidence that Herbert is going to have a day, and therefore, if you need a flyer, Johnson could easily be that guy. It’s risky, but between him and Agholor - Agholor is safer, but if you need a home run I would lean Johnson.

UPDATE: Mike Williams is now expected to play, but may be on a snap count.

Consider Sitting

Henry Ruggs III (LVR, WR): It pains me to think of what Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb could be doing in this offense. Instead, the Raiders selected Ruggs over both of them. It’s too early to say that was a ridiculous decision, however, so far it doesn’t look promising. The rookie receiver has displayed flashes of his elite skills and speed. Ideally, he could develop into a speedy alpha WR (for example Will Fuller). Unfortunately, he is not there yet and can not be relied on in fantasy this week. With only two games over ten fantasy points on the season, he is too risky to have any confidence starting this week. I would be bold enough to say I would rather take my upside shot on Tyron Johnson than Ruggs this week. 

Kalen Ballage and Justin Jackson (LAC, RB): The fact that both of these players are listed together is reason enough to make this section. With Jackson’s return and Ekeler’s clear stranglehold on the lead role, there is not enough work for either back to be fantasy relevant.

Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard (LVR, RB): These backs are in a very similar situation as the two listed above. Of the two, Richard offers some PPR value in deep leagues if the Chargers can get a lead in this game. However, I would rather avoid both options this week.

Ellis’ Picks: Spread (8-8), Over/Under (8-8)

I am very excited about this game. With the Raiders coming off of a statement loss to their AFC rivals last week, I am sure they will be motivated to take out their anger in this divisional matchup. However, I love the Charger’s offense and think they will be able to torch the Raider’s defense. In my opinion, this game is going to come down to Carr's ability to overcome the Charger’s solid defense and keep up with Herbert and company. That is, as long as Anthony Lynn has learned how to manage the clock… The Chargers' inability to close out games is a concern so I would recommend taking the plus-points. 

Chargers +3.5, Over 52.0

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