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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and the Jets and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the New York Jets playing host to the Denver Broncos.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
Denver Broncos @ New York Jets: More or Less Contest
- Sam Darnold UNDER 218.5 passing yards
- Brett Rypien UNDER 215.5 passing yards
This game is the classic Thursday game that we’ve all come to abhor. The Jets look like one of the worst teams in recent memory, and they draw a matchup with the broken and battered Broncos. Quarterback Sam Darnold is missing several receiving weapons, and his stud rookie tackle Mekhi Becton (shoulder) has a strong chance that he misses tonight’s game. Give me the under, and, if I miss, I’ll live.
If you have a friend that’s a Broncos’ fan, call them and ask them if they’re ok. After an offseason that saw them coming in with so much excitement, all of that hype has been thoroughly derailed. With numerous injuries to starters and a limited amount of practice time, you just can’t have faith in Rypien to hit the over here. This number is low, but I just have no faith in either quarterback here.
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Denver Broncos @ New York Jets: More or Less Contest
- Jamison Crowder OVER 5.5 receptions
- Melvin Gordon OVER 65.5 rushing yards
This one is pretty easy math for me. When Crowder has been healthy, he’s been the primary target of Darnold. Over the last two years, in the 14 games he’s played with Darnold, he’s averaged 5.5 receptions per game, and this receiving corps is just decimated with injuries right now. Darnold will have no choice but to throw the ball to Crowder all night to move the ball.
Similar to Crowder, I just think that Denver’s entire offense will be running through Gordon. Before the team’s Week 3 performance, Gordon had gone for 70 plus yards in each of the first two games. With Rypien under center, it’s unlikely that they’ll be letting him cut completely loose, and Gordon will probably see 20+ carries on the night. I think he clears 65.5.
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Denver Broncos @ New York Jets: More or Less Contest
- Sam Darnold UNDER 218.5 passing yards
- Jerry Jeudy OVER 4.5 receptions
- Melvin Gordon OVER 65.5 rushing yards
- Jamison Crowder OVER 60.5 receiving yards
This Jets’ team is flat out bad. They’re awful. The offensive line was improved, but they’re dealing with a lot of injuries. The pass-catchers are all injured or underwhelming. Whatever promise that Darnold had when he entered the league has been spoiled in the last two years. I have no faith in his ability to hit even this small number.
I love getting Jeudy at this number. Jeudy has caught at least four balls in all three games this season, and he’s seen at least seven targets in all three games. His issue is not with getting open. He just needs to focus on his concentration drops. I think Rypien will be very conservative in this game, and Jeudy will be a primary beneficiary of that.
I mentioned before where I fall on this one. Denver wants to run the ball and play defense under Vic Fangio. Gordon is the perfect type of back to do that. Tonight, I think he has an opportunity to clear this mark with ease. He won’t be the most efficient player, but the sheer volume that he’s going to get will push him over this number.
Crowder has never been a big yardage guy. In Week 1 of last season, he had 14 catches for 99 yards. He’s dealt with an injury the last couple of weeks, but, now that he’s back, he’s the team’s number one option. 60.5 isn’t an overwhelming mark, but I think he can hit against this Denver defense that has their own slew of injuries.
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Denver Broncos @ New York Jets: Rapid Fire Contest
- Sam Darnold more passing yards than Brett Rypien & Jerry Jeudy +1.5 more receptions than Jamison Crowder
This one we’re getting a little weird. I’m comfortable with Darnold with leading in passing yards, but it’s the second category that we have to get a little frisky. Crowder is the 1.5 reception favorite in this category. Crowder can finish with 10 catches and lose if Jeudy gets to nine. I think Jeudy accomplishes that. I’ll take Darnold and Jeudy to cover on this one.
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