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MLB sports betting picks for Week 11. Top MLB betting picks for a $10 budget by "Thunder" Dan Palyo, MLB betting analyst. He reviews the results of recent bets.
If you're here, I am going to assume you are interested in sports betting and specifically betting on baseball. Why else would you be reading this? Spoiler alert, there are no picks for any games in this article, but if you follow me @ThunderDanDFS on Twitter I do give out picks daily and I have a free daily newsletter that I just started as well.
Last Monday, I started a $10 per day challenge where I posted my favorite MLB bets and props and assigned an amount to each bet so I could not only track my success rate but my overall return on my investments. I made my base unit one dollar for the sake of keeping things simple and I was inspired by a PGA betting article here at RotoBaller called Breaking 100 in which the author explains how he wants to allocate $100 worth of PGA bets for the week. Maybe you followed my bets daily over the last week, and maybe you didn't but I wanted to take a chance to recap my bets, discuss my process, and share some of what I learned.
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Ten Dollar MLB Betting Picks Results
- 10 dollars per day for 7 straight days
- Overall record: 33 bets won, 34 bets lost
- Overall money won/lost: $0.30 = .30 units (using one dollar units)
- Moneyline bets: 5-4
- Run line bets: 2-4
- First 5-inning bets: 2-4
- Over/Under bets: 3-5
- Parlays: 5-4
- K Props: 14-8
- Total Bases props: 2-5
My expectations were tempered going into this because I have been betting long enough to know that winning over an extended stretch of time is difficult. Winning consistently is incredibly difficult, especially when you factor in the juice that every book puts on the best bets.
I really thought I was going to end up 34-33 and at plus money, but the Braves blew a 2-0 lead last night in the bottom of the ninth with two outs! It seems silly to get caught up on one bet out of 50+ that I made all week, but that one stung. How do I feel about breaking even after doing all the work that goes into handicapping every day and making picks? Not that bad, really, because betting is hard! I'll get into this a little more in the next section, but the nature of betting is that you are going to have big upswings and downswings as well as days when you are happy to break even.
But by reflecting on which types of bets I did better on versus others, I hope to continue to evolve my process and ultimately get to the point where I can be more profitable. I've only been betting semi-seriously for about two years now, and I'm still learning a lot myself about how to be a profitable bettor. At the end of this article, I'll reflect a bit on what I learned about my own betting habits and process.
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Slate By Slate Breakdown
Here are my results from my first day of posting bets which was last Monday.
$10/Day #MLB Bets Recap
❌ARI/SDP O
❌MIA/NYM O✅Bos -1.5 = $1.95
✅Bos/Atl ML parlay = $3.82
✅Cole Ks = $1.67
✅Webb Ks = $1.65
✅Cole/Webb = $1.37
✅S-Mac Ks = $1.59
✅Fried Ks = $1.74
✅S-Mac/Fried = $1.38Total won = $15.17, +$5.17, or +5.17 Units
Today's picks up soon! https://t.co/5VSryu4YWK
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 21, 2022
Did I really go up five units after the first day? This is going to be easy, right? Obviously, it was nice to get off to a good start and sweeping K props 4-0 allowed me to win both of my mini-parlays, too. All four K props were a bit juiced but I liked them a lot, which is why I decided to pair them up for a half unit each to get some solid odds. Sometimes, I will run round robins with 3-4 K props at .1 unit each as well.
With Boston and Atlanta, I wanted to play a somewhat safe parlay where I had both teams projected to win fairly easily. Those are never as easy as they seem because baseball is pretty unpredictable and -200 or better favorites lose more often than you think, but it worked out for me this time.
6/21 #MLB Recap - One of my worst nights this season! Only hit 3 bets and 2 of those were half units.
Goldschmidt pushes - $.50
Swarmer Ks - $1.10
Manaea Ks - $1.80
Royals ML - $1.20Total lost = $5.40 or -5.4 units. Gave all that profit right back!
After two days = -.23 units https://t.co/2od9tUBmfE
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 22, 2022
I didn't expect to win five units a day, but I also didn't think I'd lose five on the second night. Just about everything went wrong as I hit only three of the bets I posted. Betting will humble you in a hurry, that's for sure.
6/22 #MLB recap
✅STL - $2
✅SEA - 1.77
❌KCR
✅Mia/Col O - $2.05
✅Wheeler K - $1.71
❌ Anderson K
✅ Thompson K - $2.30
✅ Kirby K - $1.77
✅ Goldy TB - $1.91
✅Mia/SDP - $2.40Total won = $15.91 = +5.9 units#GamblingTwitter https://t.co/HPnAsmsrPv
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 23, 2022
And just like that we are back in the green! A +6 unit day was pretty awesome and only missing two of ten bets I posted felt great. Strikeout props are my jam and in hindsight, the KC pick was really dumb considering they were facing Ohtani and are a terrible team. I just wanted something with decent odds and got carried away with picking on the Angels.
6/23 #MLB Betting Recap
The rollercoaster ride continues, following up another BIG night with a really BAD card.
✅SEA ML - $3.54
❌ Everything Else 💩💩💩Total lost = -6.46 or -6.46 units.
Through four days = -.78 units
Today's bets posted within the hour https://t.co/F4sOjMf34V
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 24, 2022
This tweet says it all, talk about a rollercoaster ride! These nights really suck and I'll be honest I don't think I've had this big of a swing back and forth on four straight days all season. These first four days' results were pretty abnormal. My nights are usually a lot closer to .500 than these two big wins and two big losses, but after four days I was down almost one unit and bumming a bit. Especially because I knew I had planned to write this piece and wanted to brag about how good I was!
#MLB Bets Recap for 6/24
✅TOR -1.5 $2.15
❌NYY ML
✅DET/ARI under $2
✅OAK/KC under $1.83
❌CHW TT
✅Nola o6.5K $1.91
❌TOR/CHW
✅Swanson o1.5 TB $1.13
❌Cobb o4.5K
❌Vaughn o1.5 TB
✅Kelly/Springs $2.35Total won - 11.37, +1.37 units
After 5 days, +.59 units#gamblingtwitter https://t.co/7JpV8TGtAE— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 25, 2022
We had a huge slate on Friday and I got sucked into betting on the White Sox, despite the fact they had TRAP written all over them. I was too heavy on them between the team total, ML parlay, and Vaughn's total bases prop. Alex Cobb really dissapointed with only four strikeouts despite pitching well and was limited to 80 pitches, something I didn't see coming. Overall a positive day, though, and it put me back in the green heading into the weekend.
#MLB betting recap for 6/25
✅SEA ML - $2.15
❌KC RL
❌PHI/SDP over
✅CHI/STL under - $1.87
✅Gray o5.5K - $1.77
❌Bassitt o5.5K
❌White o4.5K
✅Gilbert o6.5K - $1.87
✅Kluber o5.5K - $1.87
❌Keller o17.5 outsTotal lost: $.47 = -.47 units https://t.co/q2z8OOgL2m
— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 26, 2022
These last three days are really more indicative of betting results. If you make 10 bets, you hope to win 10 and expect to win 5-6 that's pretty much how it goes. I was leaning on the Royals too hard here with their run line and Keller's outs, but I only missed the Bassitt K prop by one strikeout and even that one bet would have made this a positive day. Still, I only lost a half unit and I was just barely in the green heading into the final day.
#MLB Betting Recap for 6/26
❌ATL ML
❌TEX F5 TT
✅TOR F5 TT - $1.83
❌KC F5
✅CIN F5 ML - $2.25
❌Contreras
✅McLanahan - $2.05
✅Peterson - $1.74
✅Mahle - $1.71
❌ChapmanTotal lost = $.42 or -.42 units
Through 7 days = -$.30 or -.30 units https://t.co/MeM8gnoj2n— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) June 27, 2022
Sundays are always weird days for betting and DFS. We got a lot of wonky lineups and players resting. And in my experience, we usually get some funky results in these games, too. K props were solid with only Roansy missing his, but once again the Royals bit me despite having what I thought was a big pitching advantage. Texas did nothing in the early innings and as I mentioned in the opener, the Braves blew their game in the bottom of the ninth only to lose in extra innings. You can't stew about a single bet all that long, though, and you simply have to be ready to move on to the next slate when the dust settles. It's like playing quarterback in the NFL when you throw an interception, you simply have to have a short memory.
Final Thoughts
Here's where I am supposed to share with you what I have learned. I can say this pretty confidently, I am good at strikeout props! I have been betting those longer than anything and I have my own personal model that I use that has been pretty reliable the last two seasons.
If you know your strengths, you should also be aware of your weaknesses and while it was a pretty small sample size I would have to say that "first fives" and run lines are two of my worst. I have been trying to get into first fives more often, but I simply haven't fared all that well with them. I get suckered into run line bets usually because I hate paying juice on big money lines and I sometimes fall in love with a specific pitching match-up. If my model likes a team to win by two runs or more, I'm usually pretty comfortable firing up a run-line bet, but I really need to acknowledge the margin for error on my run projections is wider than I'd like to admit.
Total bases props are fun and you probably noticed I mainly bet half units (or less) on those. We usually get good odds on most non-elite hitters, but I didn't do very well this week and my brain is wired for pitching most days and not hitting match-ups. You won't see me on those going forward all that often.
What I think I did well was that I spread my action out across different types of bets and didn't rely too much on parlays. I love them as much as anyone else, but parlays are usually -EV over a large sample, especially when you start adding three or more legs.
If your goal is to have fun and have something to sweat each night, then taking some shots at prop parlays and multi-leg ML parlays is great. Just understand what your goals are and the limitations of your bankroll. If you are a serious bettor and your goal is to grind out winnings each day/week/season, then tracking your results is really important, and targeting the bets where you're most successful is going to help you get there.
I hope you learned something from my journey, I know that I have. And there is plenty more learning to do! Thanks for joining me and best of luck with your next bet(s)!
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