Thunder Dan's NFL Prop Bets for Week 16: Top Player Props Betting Picks

It's Christmas Eve and all through the house, every football fan is stirring in anticipation of some of the most important NFL football games of the season!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week 16 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week's Props: 4-5
• Season-to-Date Props: 54-57

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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 16

Taylor Heinicke OVER 189.5 passing yards (-105 DK)

I like going after some of these lower passing yards props. This one is under 200 today, but not because of wind or weather like those in Cleveland, Buffalo, or elsewhere. It’s because the Niners’ defense is really good and Washington is a run-heavy team.

But Washington won’t be able to run the ball like they want to today, so they are going to have to air it out with Heinicke. He averages 211 per game and the Niners have allowed 211 per game on the season. Plus, San Fran has been such a pass-funnel defense lately that they’ve allowed 245 yards per game over their last three games.

Kenny Pickett OVER 187.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

This number is clearly weather-related as Pickett has thrown for 210 yards per game this year. That number is a bit deflated as he left two games early with an injury, too. He’s hit this number in five of his last six games and is facing a Raiders defense that allows 243 yards to opposing passers. It’s cold and windy here in PA, but the Pittsburgh offense is built around a lot of shorter passes and high-percentage throws so I think Pickett can still get there tonight.

Derrick Henry OVER 115.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

I normally wouldn’t bet such an inflated prop, but I am pretty much all in on Henry this weekend in all formats (DFS, season-long, betting) so why not? His last four games against Houston (including earlier this year) have dwarfed this number and you can guarantee he’s going to be getting the ball 30+ times again today.

Derrick Henry - Most Rushing Yards On Saturday (+450)

This is only a half or quarter-unit bet, but if we think Henry does anything close to his usual 200+ against the Texans then it’s worth betting on his ceiling, too.

J.K. Dobbins OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

We were all over Dobbins last week and he went over 100 yards again with ease. The number of total carries might concern you as he’s averaged just 14 carries, but he’s been incredibly efficient with those touches and should have a positive game script here at home in a good matchup against Atlanta. I think he soars over this number once again.

Jerick McKinnon OVER 25.5 receiving yards (-110 DK)

J-Mac has been incredible the last two weeks and is getting fed in the passing game by Mahomes and Andy Reid. He’s gone over this total in 5 of his last 7 games and has 15 catches for 182 yards just in the last two weeks. A few dump-offs and he crushes this number as he’s been electric in the open field.

Isaiah Hodgins OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

Hodgins has 44, 38, and 37 yards the last three weeks so it’s not like he’s clearing the bar by much, but I like the increased usage he’s seeing in the Giants’ offense and the matchup here against the Vikings secondary, that allows the second-most passing yards to opponents.

Curtis Samuel OVER 29.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

This is a sneaky good play in my opinion. Samuel has gone 6-63 and 3-44 in his last two games and lines up in the slot the most of any of the Washington receivers. That happens to be where the Niners’ defense has been the most vulnerable, too. I see him getting peppered with short targets today and getting over 30 yards quickly with his ability to run after the catch.

DJ Moore OVER 55.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

The last time I recommended Moore he didn’t do anything against Seattle. So naturally, I jumped off him last week and he went 5-73 with a TD against the Steelers. This spot is too good to ignore as Detroit has been gashed by receivers all year, especially from the slot where Moore is lining up nearly half the time. His target share is on the rise and this is a matchup he can win.

Anytime Touchdown Scorers

Travis Kelce (-160)

Derrick Henry (-150)

If you hate the juice on both guys, then parlaying them together gets you some decent odds. I think Henry and Kelce get in today, maybe even two times each.

2-leg parlay = (+170 DK)

Receptions

DK Metcalf over 5.5 (-150)

Curtis Samuel over 2.5 (-180)

Tony Pollard over 2.5 (-145)

Isaiah Hodgins over 3.5 (+100)

I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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