Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 6: Spreads, Totals, Parlays, and Teasers

Welcome to Week 6, NFL bettors! We have another great slate of games on tap and I am back with my favorite totals, spreads, parlays and teasers!

Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week six of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week: 2-2
• Season ATS: 7-13
• Season O/U: 4-8
• Season Overall: 10-20

NFL Betting Picks: Spreads

Going out on a limb with two bets this week that I really like in two games that project to be close and high scoring.

SEA ML (+120 DK)

I know, we are back on Seattle again? Yes, this time they are at home and still underdogs despite having better metrics than Arizona in a lot of categories. Seattle now has the #1 rated DVOA offense and a major mismatch against an Arizona team that has struggled to stop teams this year.

I know that Seattle’s defense is bad, too, but I think they can outscore the Cards here. And I think Arizona has to be a bit deflated after coming up just short against Philly, they are ripe for a let down here. And we are still one week away from the return of Nuk Hopkins.

BUF -2.5 (-115 DK)

This is the marquee game on the slate! The Bills went through the Steelers last week as if they weren’t even there, while the Chiefs had to pull one out late against the Raiders.

This game last year in the AFC playoffs was by far one of the best football games I have ever watched and I am sure we are setting up for another great finish. Yes, the Bills are on the road, but I think they are deserving favorites here as they have been the better team on both sides of the ball this year.

Yes, they are dinged up on defense, but I think Josh Allen and company score at will on this KC defense and get just enough stops to pull out a field goal win (or more).

Give me the Bills here, they win and go on a tear that takes them all the way to the Super Bowl!

NFL Betting Picks: Totals

PHI-DAL under 42 (-110 DK)

This game should be a fantastic watch, but it won’t surprise me at all if it’s a brawl and both teams focus on running the ball and protecting every possession. The winner will have the upper hand in the NFC East and the Eagles have a target on their chest as the last undefeated team.

I do think the Eagles are better and win this game, but they could win it very ugly and I am counting on that by hitting the under here.

CLE-NE over 43 (-110 DK)

This is a really sneaky spot. My model loves the over and you have to somewhat throw out the outlier performance from New England’s defense last week to see the bigger picture here - they haven’t been very good all season before last week.

Cleveland’s offense has been very solid and they put up a ton of points again last week before losing late to a good Chargers team. But they are getting gashed on the ground and in the passing game, giving me some hope that New England can put up their share of points here, too, with a solid rushing attack and capable young QB.

The total has moved up a point a half since open, despite most of the bets coming in on the under. That’s some reverse line movement that I can support and my data backs the over as well.

JAX-IND under 42 (-110 DK)

This is yet another reverse line movement situation that I want to take advantage of this week. Most of the bets are now coming in on the over yet the total has dropped a full point, do the sharps know something? The public is likely thinking over here if Jonathan Taylor plays and Indy gets back on track. And honestly, he can play and it doesn’t change my opinion here at all.

These teams both failed to score a touchdown last week on offense! The first meeting was dominated by Jacksonville 24-0 and I don’t think we see that again, but we do have two very solid defenses in this game and two teams who definitely want to run the ball if they can.

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NFL Betting Picks: Teasers and Parlays

You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. And this week there aren’t that many heavy favorites, so my main ML parlay is smaller and my teaser is focused mainly on underdogs.

ML FAVORITES PARLAY: LAC/TB/SF (+161 DK)

6 POINT UNDERDGOG TEASER: NYG/SEA/JAX/NE (+260 DK)

That takes the spreads to NYG +12, SEA +8.5, JAX +8, NE +8.5

We have at least a touchdown cushion for everyone and a full TD + FG cushion for our G-men!

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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