Thunder Dan's NFL Prop Bets for Week 11: Top Player Props Betting Picks

Dan Palyo's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 11 of the 2022 season. His favorite NFL betting picks for NFL player props bets.

After one week off from props, while I was away on vacation, I am back with my favorite eight NFL player props for Week 11!

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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season

• Last Week's Props: 4-6
• Season-to-Date Props: 38-42

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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 11

Saquon Barkley OVER 98.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

Barkley averages over 100 yards on the ground per game this year, so this number stands out as low already. He’s coming off a season-high 35 carries and this spot sets up so nicely for him as the Giants are home favorites who should focus on establishing him early and often against the 31st-ranked Detroit run defense.

Dalvin Cook OVER 79.5 rushing yards (-125 DK)

The Cowboys’ defense has been bad against the run this, allowing the fourth-most yards per game of any unit. And they’ve allowed 188 yards per game (third-worst) over their last three games. The formula for beating them is now well-known, and I would expect the Vikings to try to exploit that by pounding Cook in this game.

Cook has gone over 100 yards rushing in two of his last three games and has been very efficient with his touches, averaging 5.4 yards per carry over his last three games. I’m banking on a big day from him in this one, another game that carries a pretty high total as Vegas is expecting a lot of offense.

Marcus Mariota OVER 165.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

We were on the under for Mariota there for a while as the Falcons just refused to pass the ball more than like 20 times a game. But Mariota’s attempts are up lately, as he’s averaged 27 passing attempts per game over his last three and has gone over this number twice.

The Bears’ defense has allowed 262 yards passing over their last three games, which is the fourth most in the league. If we expect this game to shoot out (as Vegas does) then I think Mariota could easily eclipse this number on his way to a big day.

Terry McLaurin OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-130 DK)

Scary Terry is coming off a season-high 128 yards receiving against the Eagles on Monday night in their huge home upset. He’s now gone over this number in three of the four Commanders’ games since Taylor Heinecke took over at QB. In another soft matchup with the Houston secondary, I love his chances of smashing this total.

Stefon Diggs OVER 87.5 receiving yards (-130 DK)

Diggs averages nearly 110 receiving yards per game and has beaten this number in 7 of 9 games this year, including the last five in a row!

Now that the game is in Detroit, we can fire up the Bills’ offensive players in all formats, especially since the Browns have been middling pass defense and overall BAD defense this year.

Receptions

Adam Thielen OVER 3.5 (-145 DK)

DeVonta Smith OVER 4.5 (-155 DK)

Jakobi Meyers OVER 4.5 (+105 DK)

Thielen has at least four catches in all but two games this year. Smith has 5 or more catches in four of his last five and the loss of Goedert as a weapon likely means more short routes and designed plays for Smith this week.

Meyers had 9 catches against the Jets a few weeks ago and five catches for plus money seems very doable for a possession receiver like Jakobi.

I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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