X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for July 22: Pitcher Props, Money Line, Run Line Bets

charlie morton fantasy baseball rankings pitchers draft sleepers MLB injury news

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for July 22nd, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

The weekend is here and we have games scattered across the day at multiple different times, so there should be continuous baseball for 10-12 hours to wager on today! Hey there, it's your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I'm back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, July 22nd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Max Scherzer o7.5K vs. SDP (+100 FD or DK)

Mad Max at plus odds for 8? Sign me up! He’s been phenomenal since coming back from injury and you can see his numbers on the chart are GREEN across the board.

Kevin Gausman o5.5K vs. BOS (-145 FD)

Gausman’s projection just barely clears the bar here, and normally I wouldn’t chase a number so close at these juiced odds, BUT he has owned the Sox so far this year with 19 strikeouts across two starts. I think he gets six today, he should be rested up and ready to throw splitters all damn day.

Shohei Ohtani o8.5K vs. ATL (+122 FD)

How can we not keep riding the Ohtani wave? DK hasn’t set his line yet, but if it’s 7.5 there it won’t be for long. He’s in just incredible form and gets a great matchup against the Braves who love to swing the bat (and miss quite often)

Charlie Morton o7.5K (-140 FD)

Morton is the match-up play of the day, and you know by now we are attacking Angels for K props just about every day. This is a decent amount of juice on a big number, but Charlie has been in good form over the last month and the Angels’ K rate just continues to soar.

Corbin Burnes o7.5K vs. COL (-150 FD)

It’s not a great match-up for strikeouts on paper, but Burnes has been mowing guys down and it’s hard for me to envision him not getting 8 at home against an inferior club. I don’t love the juice, but I think it’s still a very worthy bet.

Who else to watch for?

Braxton Garrett! He just struck out 11 Pirates last time out, and I am hoping we can get him at 5.5 today, which I would be all about grabbing. If it’s 6.5, then it gets a tad dicier but could be worth a bet if the odds are juicy enough.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

Yankees o4.5 runs (-135 DK)

Brewers o4.5 runs (-110 DK)

These two teams have my top two custom team projections today. The Yankees didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard in yesterday’s doubleheader, but I like their match-up here against Wells in Camden. My model is all over them, and my gut says they’re going to score some runs tonight, hopefully, it happens for us.

The Brewers are at home, where they have been strong offensively this year, and get a very hittable Senzatela and the infamous (but not quite as bad as they once were) Rockies’ bullpen.

Tampa Bay ML (-104 FD)

I’m not really sure why the Royals are favored here at home. They are going with Keller now instead of Greinke, which helps their case, but Tampa is a significantly better all-around team and looked good heading into the break, winning six of their final seven games.

Texas ML (-116 FD)

I’m placing some faith in Spencer Howard to show up and pitch like we know he’s capable of pitching against a bottom-five offense in all of baseball. The Rangers offense has been rounding into form nicely, and while Cole Irvin is that guy who can troll us, I still think Texas has enough of an advantage here on offense to win this one on the road.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.

(click to enlarge)

 

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jesús Luzardo5 mins ago

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out Eight In Seven Scoreless Frames
Jacob Wilson12 mins ago

Launches Second Long Ball, Extends Hitting Streak To Eight Games
Spencer Schwellenbach20 mins ago

Strikes Out 10 Across Eight Shutout Innings
Luis Rengifo7 hours ago

Injures His Hamstring On Friday
Denver Broncos8 hours ago

Dondrea Tillman Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Kansas City Chiefs8 hours ago

Janarius Robinson Agrees To Join The Chiefs
New York Jets8 hours ago

Tony Adams Signs Tender
Ketel Marte8 hours ago

Likely To Land On The Injured List
Eury Pérez8 hours ago

Eury Perez Throws Bullpen On Friday
Edward Cabrera8 hours ago

To Make Second Rehab Start On Sunday
Matt Brash9 hours ago

On Track To Return In Late April
Ketel Marte9 hours ago

Dealing With Strained Hamstring
Cameron Payne9 hours ago

Questionable Versus Atlanta
Miles McBride9 hours ago

Still Out On Saturday
Alex Ovechkin9 hours ago

Ties All-Time Goals Record In Friday's Win
Jalen Brunson9 hours ago

Might Return To Action On Saturday
Jordan Romano9 hours ago

Shaky While Recording Save Against Dodgers
Tyler Myers9 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Against Ducks
Julio Rodríguez9 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Posts Three-Hit Performance
Corbin Carroll9 hours ago

Blasts Two Homers
David Kampf9 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jake McCabe9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Tylor Megill9 hours ago

Looks Sharp In Home Opener
Brady Tkachuk10 hours ago

To Remain Out On Saturday
Jamie Benn10 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against Penguins
Wilyer Abreu10 hours ago

Collects Three Hits
Shota Imanaga10 hours ago

Impressive In Win
Evgeni Malkin10 hours ago

Could Return To Action Saturday
Ryan Burr11 hours ago

Could Throw Bullpen Next Week
Brad Lord11 hours ago

Could Make A Start On Sunday
Patrick Corbin11 hours ago

Jack Leiter Placed On Injured List, Patrick Corbin Promoted
Arizona Cardinals11 hours ago

Jake Curhan Heading To Arizona
Vidal Bruján11 hours ago

Vidal Brujan's Rehab Stalls
Jud Fabian11 hours ago

Showing Power At Triple-A
Javier Assad11 hours ago

Getting Close To Rehab Assignment
Julio Jones11 hours ago

Announces Retirement
Cade Cunningham12 hours ago

Out Of Action Friday
Trey Lance12 hours ago

Chargers Sign Trey Lance
Brandon Ingram12 hours ago

Could Be Cleared For Full Practice Next Week
Gradey Dick12 hours ago

Out For Remainder Of Season
Scottie Barnes13 hours ago

Unavailable Against Pistons
Walker Kessler13 hours ago

Out Against Pacers
Dylan Holloway13 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Aleksander Barkov13 hours ago

Will Miss Weekend's Action
Leon Draisaitl13 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Andrei Svechnikov13 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least Four Games
Scoot Henderson14 hours ago

Out Again Friday
Elmer Soderblom14 hours ago

Available Friday
Logan Thompson14 hours ago

To Miss Some Time
Rui Hachimura14 hours ago

Sidelined On Friday
Matt Roy14 hours ago

Expected To Return On Friday
Arizona Cardinals17 hours ago

Kelvin Beachum Re-Signs One-Year Deal With Cardinals
NFL17 hours ago

Travis Hunter To Run Routes At Pro Day On Friday
Cade Cunningham17 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Friday's Game
Pascal Siakam18 hours ago

Iffy For Matchup With Jazz
Aaron Nesmith18 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Action
Bennedict Mathurin18 hours ago

Questionable On Friday Against Jazz
Kenyon Martin Jr.18 hours ago

Ruled Out Friday With Illness
Josh Emmett19 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 105
Dallas Cowboys19 hours ago

Cowboys Still Searching For Their Lead Running Back
Lerone Murphy19 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 105
Pat Sabatini19 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Seth Curry19 hours ago

Listed As Probable Friday
Joanderson Brito19 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mark Williams19 hours ago

Likely To Play On Friday
Cortavious Romious19 hours ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
ChangHo Lee20 hours ago

Looks For His Second UFC Win
Brad Tavares21 hours ago

Set For Middleweight Bout
Gerald Meerschaert21 hours ago

Set For His 23rd UFC Bout
Luis Gurule21 hours ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Ode' Osbourne21 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Robert Valentin21 hours ago

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 105 Main Card
Torrez Finney22 hours ago

Set For UFC Debut
Dustin Wolf24 hours ago

Snaps Skid On Thursday
Wyatt Johnston1 day ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Game
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Stops 31 Shots In Victory
Nick Suzuki1 day ago

Has Goal, Assist On Thursday
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Can Not Finish Thursday's Contest
John Gibson1 day ago

Exits Early On Thursday
Nikola Jokić1 day ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Jonathan Kuminga1 day ago

Back On Thursday Night
Miles Boykin1 day ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson1 day ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield1 day ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum1 day ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George1 day ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Jonathan Drouin2 days ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Trey McBride2 days ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith2 days ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
2 days ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants2 days ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders2 days ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs2 days ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Cameron Young3 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama3 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners3 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti3 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp4 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim4 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood4 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau4 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole4 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman4 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall5 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara5 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez5 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron5 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones5 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry6 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano6 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece6 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell6 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF