Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for July 12th: Pitcher Props, Money Lines, and Run Line Bets

All 30 MLB teams are back in action on this fine summer day and that means plenty of spots to attack for our daily MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, July 12th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Gerrit Cole o7.5 vs. CIN (-120 DK)

Let’s start with the big dog, Cole. I have been off him for a while since he’s had some tough matchups with Houston, Cleveland, and Boston, but it’s time to pounce. Going against Cincy bit me with Shane Baz the other day, but they still have a strikeout rate approaching 30% over the last two weeks and I think Cole has 8 in him here. It’s a nice spot for him at home and I wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes 10k when it’s all said and done.

Luis Garcia o5.5 vs. LAA (-160 DK)

We know by now that the Angels are the team to attack for strikeouts - with righties and lefties alike. This number is way too low and the odds reflect that. I am locking it in now, but I am ready to bet it again at 6.5 once it moves, which I am almost positive it will. Garcia has been solid lately in the K department and has a strong SwStr% to back up his strikeouts.

Spencer Strider o6.5 (-145 DK)

Today is the day we see if Strider is matchup-proof or not. The Mets have a low K rate, and it’s been even lower over the last two weeks which is why I adjusted my number in my projections. However, Strider has that 39% strikeout rate of his own. Since moving into the rotation and getting stretched out, he’s only failed to get seven strikeouts once, and that was in a game where he got run early by the Giants.

David Peterson o4.5 (-155 DK)

Don’t look now, but Peterson has quietly been pretty good and reliable for the Mets as a member of their rotation. He walked five in his last start, but still managed seven strikeouts and has 32 strikeouts over his last four starts. Atlanta strikes out a bunch, we just have to hope that he can pitch deep enough here and that he doesn’t get hit hard early. He had six against Atlanta back in May in the only other appearance against them.

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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

It’s a bit of a mishmash of bets here with a little of everything, here we go.

NYY -1.5 (-155 DK)

Man, I hate paying the juice here but I want access to the Yankees today. Not only to Cole’s K potential but to their offense, who I think can tee off on Ashcraft and the Reds bullpen. The Yanks team total is 5.5 and you could look in that direction for better odds (+110), but I think this run line is a pretty solid bet, too, based on the advantages that New York has with their starter, bullpen, and offense.

HOU ML (-125 DK)

If you want even better odds, I don’t think the run line is out of the question here either. But Syndergaard has been pitching well lately, so this one could end up close, too. I still have Garcia as the better pitcher and Houston has the advantage in offense and bullpen. They are on the road, but they’ve had no problem winning there.

TEX o4.5 total runs (-125 DK)

I wanted to go back to the Texas run line, but after last night’s scare and seeing Glenn Otto’s xFIP over 5, I think I will just bet on the Texas offense here against Kaprielian than their pitching.

SEA/WAS F5 under 5 runs (-115 DK)

When you look at the names of these pitchers, you might think I am crazy. But Josiah Gray has been very good when he’s on his game, and Chris Flexen refuses to get blown up even when I keep thinking he will. This game total is the highest rated in my model, but I simply do not trust the Washington bullpen against a surging Seattle team, so I am only willing to bet on Gray to hold them in check for the first half of the game.

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Have a great weekend and thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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