X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 24: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 24th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

If you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Wednesday, August 24th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Kyle Wright o5.5K vs. PIT (+115 FD)

It’s not an auto-play just because it’s the Pirates, Wright has been solid all season with a good swinging strike rate and low walk rate to back up this play. He’s projected a full 1.1K over his total, smash this play at plus odds.

Logan Webb o4.5K vs. DET (-140 DK)

Webb isn’t a high K pitcher, but he has shown that he can smash in good spots before against bad teams. And that’s exactly what this spot is, Detroit is striking out well over 30% of the time lately and Webb should pitch deep enough in this one to get his 5+.

Shane McClanahan o6.5K vs. LAA (-155 DK)

Andrew Heaney o6.5 vs. MIL (-140)

I am going to lump these two studs together. Shane Mac looked back to his usual form his last start, but his number is still lower than usual despite having an elite match-up today. The only catch is the juice, but I’m still on it and I’m guessing it will be on the rise. The same principle applies to Heaney here, who just whiffed 10 Brewers last time. A lot of juice on a somewhat-big number, but he’s an elite K pitcher in a perfect matchup.

Zac Gallen o5.5 vs. KCR (-120 DK)

Gallen is coming off a 12 strikeout performance and has 6+ now in three straight. The Royals lineup is hard to project, but they do have a lot of younger hitters in there to finish out the season and their K rate has been on the rise.

Cole Irvin o4.5 vs. MIA (-145 DK)

This one is TOUGH because Irvin simply isn’t a strikeout pitcher as you can see by his 9% SwStr%. But Miami is such a good spot for lefties and Irvin has such great control and the ability to pitch deep into games that he could fall into 5+ strikeouts. Even Zach Logue, a Triple-A level pitcher, had seven against the Marlins last night…

Jesus Luzardo o5.5 vs. OAK (-160 DK)

Revenge game anyone? Just kidding, but I think Luzardo is pretty safe for 6+ tonight against his former squad. I don’t love this juice, but I will be mixing and matching a lot of these juiced props and building some parlays or round robins tonight to help boost the odds.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

A little mix here of money line, team total, and a game total. I like all three spots quite a bit.

BAL ML (+100 DK)

The Orioles didn’t disappoint as underdogs last night, and if you check the updated trends chart, you’ll see they have one of the best win percentages and dogs in the league at 48.5%.

Giolito vs. Watkins might make your brain think “this is a dumb bet,” but didn’t some of you think that yesterday with Cease vs. Voth? The White Sox are struggling right now to score and Giolito hasn’t been his usual self for most of the year.

OAK/MIA under 7 runs (-120 DK)

These offenses both stink, there’s really no way to sugarcoat it. If you had the under last night (I didn’t), you probably tilted three meaningless runs in the bottom of the ninth from Oakland that pushed the game to eight total runs.

If you really wanted to be safe, you’d go UNDER in the F5 here as both starters (Irvin and Luzardo) should handle the opposing offenses, and last night these teams combined for just one run in the first five. But I like the odds on the full game total here better, and you know I am already on both pitchers and their K props as well.

LAD over 4.5 runs (-135)

The Dodgers just smacked around Corbin Burnes last night and then finished with 10 runs. They’re rounding in form lately and have probably the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball. Adrian Houser returns to the rotation tonight for Milwaukee and he’s going to get greeted rather rudely by the Dodgers, I think. Houser has been pretty pedestrian when healthy and hasn’t missed many bats.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

Some new data was added here with "win percentage as favorite" and "win percentage as underdog" - inspired by Baltimore!

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Nola

Pitches Seven Strong Innings
Tylor Megill

Strikes Out Nine In No-Decision
Hunter Brown

Strikes Out Nine In Win
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice
Andy Pages

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Ketel Marte

Expected To Return Next Weekend
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Noelvi Marte

Has Big Game On Sunday
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh

Removed Early During Rehab Game
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Looks Sharp In Rehab Start
Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF