Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 23: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

There are 16 MLB games today as the Cards and Cubs get set for a double-dip. And if you like sports betting, then you've come to the right place! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 23rd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Max Fried o5.5K vs. PIT (-125 FD)

This is an easy play for me. Fried is a polished pitcher who simply doesn’t walk anyone and therefore pitches deep enough to get his strikeouts and wins. There’s not much more that needs to be said, we love targeting the Pirates for Ks.

Austin Voth o3.5K vs. CHW (-145 DK)

This is not a name you’re used to seeing, but Voth has been solid since entering Baltimore’s rotation and has 4+ strikeouts in all but one start. Sometimes you have to just trust your projections and that’s what I am doing.

Robbie Ray o6.5K vs. WAS (-140 DK)

Washington is usually a no-go for me, but their recent K% against LHP has been trending up (two match-ups with Blake Snell has to be accounting for a lot of that). But Ray is a similar pitcher to Snell, who got the Nats 10 and 7 times in those two starts. He’s already at 7.5 on FD (not sure I want to go that high), so grab the 6.5 while you can.

Ranger Suarez o4.5 vs. CIN (-145 DK)

Suarez has been awesome for the last month and just punched out 8 Reds last time. Somehow his prop is the same as it was in that game, despite the Reds striking out 33% of the time against lefties lately. This feels like a nice ladder spot to run it up to 8 again and see if Ranger stays locked in.

Corey Kluber o5.5 vs. LAA (-135 DK)

I know, I know - Corey Kluber, really? But yeah, c’mon it’s the Angels! Kluber actually has been pretty good lately and dominated both the Yankees and Guardians in the last month. That being said, he could fall flat on his face and it wouldn’t surprise me either. The numbers back it, though, so I am going after these Angels again.

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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

Dan Vogelbach to hit a HR (+470 FD)

I am abandoning total base props tonight (but to be fair, I would be betting Vogey o1.5 but his TB prop is set at .5 with juice).

I’m feeling bold (just finished my NFL bold predictions, you can peep those here) and a little frisky after seeing the big lefty hit a HR last night. Montas has been really bad since coming to New York, especially to lefties.

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

It feels like an underdog type of day! I have three dogs I am backing today, two are on the road and one of them is at home. Let’s start with the home dogs in Baltimore.

BAL ML (+105 DK)

You might think I am crazy for going against Dylan Cease, especially when he dominated this Oriole team earlier this year to the tune of 13 strikeouts. But Cease has slowed down a bit lately, and Baltimore has been really good at home this year. Austin Voth has pitched much better than people realize and this White Sox offense continues to underperform. This game is a coin flip at best, and I’ll take the home team here with better odds.

CLE ML (+125 DK)

The Guardians are on the road in San Diego and facing a familiar face on the mound in Mike Clevinger, who helped anchor the rotation in Cleveland just a few years ago. Aaron Civale goes for Cleveland today, and he’s been sharp in two starts since returning from injury (albeit against Detroit twice). Clevinger has not been sharp, struggling with his command and having a hard time getting through 5 innings lately. Cleveland is a patient team of hitters who could really give Clevinger fits here, they don’t strike out at all, and they usually find a way to scratch out just enough runs to win.

TEX ML (+100)

Don’t bet on a team in their first game in Coors or their first game after leaving Coors right? Sure, the Coors effect is real, but I don’t live and die by that rule. Dane Dunning and Marquez are pretty equal as pitchers in my eyes and Texas has the better lineup against RHP. My model has Texas favored just barely and here again, I am rolling with the team that gives us better odds in a game that I view as a toss-up.

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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