X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 12: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 12th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 12th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Carlos Rodon o7.5K vs. PIT (-160 DK)

Let’s start with the big dog. Rodon eats bad teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Pirates are…a very bad team, especially against LHP. I have a massive 37% projected K rate here, pushing Rodon’s projection close to 9. There’s a ton of juice here, but I’m okay with it and probably betting at 8.5, too, once it moves.

Tyler Mahle o6.5K vs. LAA (+110 DK)

Mahle has been a fairly erratic pitcher in his career, but has had a solid season and is now pitching for a playoff contender in Minnesota. The Angels are pretty much in the auto-target territory by this part of the season, and even when I dropped their K rate a few points based on recent numbers, I still have Mahle for nearly 7. I love the odds we are getting here, and I think Mahle is a great ladder play up to 9-10.

Pablo Lopez 5.5K vs. ATL (-140)

Somehow Pablo has managed to dodge the Braves all year up to this point. While the Atlanta offense is dangerous, they are also very K-prone and Pablo has great stuff. You can see we are green across the board on the chart and he’s projected a full K above this number, which makes me okay with eating the juice a bit.

Luis Garcia to record a win (-125 DK)

I wanted some exposure to Houston but like yesterday I am not betting them -300 or worse on the ML or -150 on the RL. If they take care of business as they should, then Garcia should be in line for a win. His K prop is 6.5 and I’d rather get my exposure to him through the win than the strikeouts or outs today.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

We are back with some total base props today!

Jose Abreu o1.5 TB (+125)

Abreu gets to see a familiar pitcher today as Daniel Norris makes his debut as a starter for the Tigers this season. Abreu has 22 at-bats against the veteran lefty Norris and a .455 average with two HR and a 1.440 OPS. Norris probably will only pitch 3-5 innings tops, but all it takes is one swing of the bat to cash this one at nice odds. Norris’s 14% barrel rate is the worst on the slate.

Juan Soto o1.5 TB (+110)

Speaking of barrel rates, Cory Abbott’s is 13% and he’s going to have his work cut out for him today with this new look Pads lineup. Soto has two straight multi-hit games and I’m a little blown away he’s a plus odds here considering how bad Washington’s bullpen has been and how largely favored the Pads are in this spot.

Kyle Tucker o1.5 TB (+100)

Yordan Alvarez gets all the attention in Houston, but we are getting Tucker at much better odds here. I like most of the Houston guys today against Oller, who has been pretty objectively bad this year. Tucker has the raw power to get us a HR, but also awesome speed to stretch a single into a double. He’s been hitting the ball well and can get there with HR, double, or just two singles.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

SFG -1.5 (-115 DK)

SDP -1.5 (-145 DK)

A couple of big mismatches here with the Giants pitching Rodon against the Bucs and the Padres going with Mike Clevinger against a terrible Nats team. The Padres offense is heating up and they should light up Abbott and that Nats’ pen. The Giants' offense isn’t nearly as powerful, but I trust them to scrape together enough runs to cover here and Rodon could totally shut out this Pittsburgh offense.

L.A. Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-110 DK)

The Dodgers bats have been impressive over the last month as they are averaging 6.4 runs scored. Max Muncy is finally alive, Joey Gallo might be coming out of his season-long coma, and the rest of the gang just keeps hitting. They face a lefty tonight in Lynch who isn’t terrible by any means, but this lineup has been solid against LHP even with some light-hitting guys at the bottom of the order (Alberto, Thompson, Barnes). The Royals bullpen backing Lynch is bad, which is what pushes me over the top here. The Dodgers roll tonight and score 6+.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Luis Rengifo6 hours ago

Injures His Hamstring On Friday
Denver Broncos7 hours ago

Dondrea Tillman Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Kansas City Chiefs7 hours ago

Janarius Robinson Agrees To Join The Chiefs
New York Jets7 hours ago

Tony Adams Signs Tender
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Likely To Land On The Injured List
Eury Pérez7 hours ago

Eury Perez Throws Bullpen On Friday
Edward Cabrera7 hours ago

To Make Second Rehab Start On Sunday
Matt Brash7 hours ago

On Track To Return In Late April
Ketel Marte7 hours ago

Dealing With Strained Hamstring
Cameron Payne7 hours ago

Questionable Versus Atlanta
Miles McBride8 hours ago

Still Out On Saturday
Alex Ovechkin8 hours ago

Ties All-Time Goals Record In Friday's Win
Jalen Brunson8 hours ago

Might Return To Action On Saturday
Jordan Romano8 hours ago

Shaky While Recording Save Against Dodgers
Tyler Myers8 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Against Ducks
Julio Rodríguez8 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Posts Three-Hit Performance
Corbin Carroll8 hours ago

Blasts Two Homers
David Kampf8 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jake McCabe8 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Tylor Megill8 hours ago

Looks Sharp In Home Opener
Brady Tkachuk8 hours ago

To Remain Out On Saturday
Jamie Benn8 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against Penguins
Wilyer Abreu8 hours ago

Collects Three Hits
Shota Imanaga9 hours ago

Impressive In Win
Evgeni Malkin9 hours ago

Could Return To Action Saturday
Ryan Burr10 hours ago

Could Throw Bullpen Next Week
Brad Lord10 hours ago

Could Make A Start On Sunday
Patrick Corbin10 hours ago

Jack Leiter Placed On Injured List, Patrick Corbin Promoted
Arizona Cardinals10 hours ago

Jake Curhan Heading To Arizona
Vidal Bruján10 hours ago

Vidal Brujan's Rehab Stalls
Jud Fabian10 hours ago

Showing Power At Triple-A
Javier Assad10 hours ago

Getting Close To Rehab Assignment
Kutter Crawford10 hours ago

Not Cleared To Face Hitters
Michael McGreevy10 hours ago

Rebounds In Second Start
Liam Hendriks10 hours ago

To Throw Bullpen Session This Weekend
Julio Jones10 hours ago

Announces Retirement
Cade Cunningham10 hours ago

Out Of Action Friday
Trey Lance10 hours ago

Chargers Sign Trey Lance
Brandon Ingram11 hours ago

Could Be Cleared For Full Practice Next Week
Gradey Dick11 hours ago

Out For Remainder Of Season
Scottie Barnes11 hours ago

Unavailable Against Pistons
Walker Kessler12 hours ago

Out Against Pacers
Dylan Holloway12 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Aleksander Barkov12 hours ago

Will Miss Weekend's Action
Leon Draisaitl12 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Andrei Svechnikov12 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least Four Games
Scoot Henderson12 hours ago

Out Again Friday
Elmer Soderblom12 hours ago

Available Friday
Logan Thompson12 hours ago

To Miss Some Time
Rui Hachimura13 hours ago

Sidelined On Friday
Matt Roy13 hours ago

Expected To Return On Friday
Arizona Cardinals16 hours ago

Kelvin Beachum Re-Signs One-Year Deal With Cardinals
NFL16 hours ago

Travis Hunter To Run Routes At Pro Day On Friday
Cade Cunningham16 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Friday's Game
Pascal Siakam16 hours ago

Iffy For Matchup With Jazz
Aaron Nesmith17 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Action
Bennedict Mathurin17 hours ago

Questionable On Friday Against Jazz
Kenyon Martin Jr.17 hours ago

Ruled Out Friday With Illness
Josh Emmett17 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 105
Dallas Cowboys17 hours ago

Cowboys Still Searching For Their Lead Running Back
Lerone Murphy18 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 105
Pat Sabatini18 hours ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Seth Curry18 hours ago

Listed As Probable Friday
Joanderson Brito18 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mark Williams18 hours ago

Likely To Play On Friday
Cortavious Romious18 hours ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
ChangHo Lee19 hours ago

Looks For His Second UFC Win
Brad Tavares19 hours ago

Set For Middleweight Bout
Gerald Meerschaert20 hours ago

Set For His 23rd UFC Bout
Luis Gurule20 hours ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Ode' Osbourne20 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Robert Valentin20 hours ago

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 105 Main Card
Torrez Finney20 hours ago

Set For UFC Debut
Dustin Wolf23 hours ago

Snaps Skid On Thursday
Wyatt Johnston23 hours ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Game
Linus Ullmark23 hours ago

Stops 31 Shots In Victory
Nick Suzuki23 hours ago

Has Goal, Assist On Thursday
Leon Draisaitl23 hours ago

Can Not Finish Thursday's Contest
John Gibson23 hours ago

Exits Early On Thursday
Nikola Jokić1 day ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Jonathan Kuminga1 day ago

Back On Thursday Night
Miles Boykin1 day ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson1 day ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield1 day ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum1 day ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George1 day ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Jonathan Drouin1 day ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Trey McBride2 days ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith2 days ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
2 days ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants2 days ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders2 days ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs2 days ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Cameron Young3 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama3 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners3 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti3 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp4 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim4 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood4 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau4 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole4 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens4 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA4 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman4 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR5 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall5 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara5 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez5 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron5 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones5 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry6 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano6 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece6 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell6 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney6 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! We already have one week in the books, with the XFL teams off to a hot start at 3-1 while the USFL conference went 1-3. We have Houston squaring off against Arlington in the early game and San Antonio versus St. Louis in the later […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: NFL Draft QB Scouting Report!

Michael F. Florio gives his scouting report for the 2025 NFL Draft QB class. Do Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders live up the hype? Should you be excited about Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe? Plus, he goes over the deeper options in this class! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks

Well, the opening week is always full of curveballs, and 2025 was no exception. We actually saw the Birmingham Stallions lose a game, looking bad in the process. Overall, I went 3-3-1 on spreads and over/unders last week, so a bit inconvenient that neither parlay worked out. It is a short season, so the pressure […]


Isaiah Bond - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers: 5 Undervalued Draft Targets

We all know at this point who the top names are heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty will be the dynasty rookie RB1. Tetairoa McMillan will be the rookie WR1. But fantasy leagues aren't won just by getting a top-2 or three rookie pick and grabbing the best guys. Rookie drafts are also […]


Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Two-Round Start-Up Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single Quarterback

The players you select in the early rounds of dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts have a massive impact on the chances of your team winning for many seasons after the first one. So it's crucial to nail these picks, and there are a few ways you can do that. Obviously, no one's being selected in […]


Tetairoa McMillan - College Football DFS Lineup Picks, NCAA CFB, NFL Draft Prospect

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single-QB

Thankfully, fans and fantasy football players only have to wait a few more weeks for the 2025 NFL Draft. That means dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are right around the corner. While dynasty fantasy outlooks for the NFL Draft prospects will change between today and the end of April, it’s time for another dynasty rookie […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For Wide Receivers On New Teams: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, and more

The 2025 NFL offseason has been full of breaking news alerts. Last year, all the action was at the running back position, with Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs changing teams. However, all the action has been at the wide receiver position this offseason. Some big-name wide receivers remained with their current teams. Tee […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Running Back Preview: Targets & Sleepers For 2025 Drafts

While the NFL is in the middle of its offseason, the fantasy football world never takes a break. Much in the fantasy world will change between now and the start of the regular season. Yet, let’s take an early look at the running back position for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Below are three early-round studs, […]


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]