Thunder Dan's Bold Predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Football Season

With only a few days left to draft your fantasy football teams before the 2024 season kicks off, I've saved my final piece of draft content for these final days.

By now, you have read dozens of articles about sleepers, busts, and values. You've crunched the ADP on each site that you play on to find the guys you will have to reach for. And I - as a fantasy content creator, have written thousands of words outlining why you should or shouldn't draft certain players. As an editor, I've poured over hundreds of articles here at RotoBaller, trying to make sure that we are producing the best quality content possible and offering actionable info for our readers.

And as a fantasy manager who still has several drafts to go before Opening Night, I've consumed about as much information as my 42-year-old brain can absorb about every fantasy-relevant player in the NFL. Now it's time to have some fun and make some wild assertions that I probably can't back up. But I'm going to try anyway. Here are some of my bold predictions for the 2024 Fantasy Football season.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

1. The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's Top Offense...

And produce great fantasy seasons from Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice.

I am not sure how bold the first part of the statement is; after all - the Chiefs are the two-time defending NFL champs. They're bringing everyone back, and they added speedster Xavier Worthy and veteran Marquise Brown to their receiving corps.

But last year, you could easily argue that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were busts at their ADP. Pacheco came on late and was solid, while Rashee Rice was easily the best value. And by now, I am not sure anyone is still sleeping on Rice, despite what his ADP suggests. The entire industry is all over Rice, so if you want to draft him, you better not wait until the fifth round.

Rashee Rice averaged 16.2 PPR PPG after the Bye Week last season (Ja’Marr Chase/Deebo Samuel range)

If you only look at the games he played more than 75% of the snaps after the Bye, he averaged 17.4 PPR PPG (Nico Collins/Puka Nacua range)

Rashee 🍚’s ceiling is being slept on https://t.co/wn7MzjqQvO

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) September 1, 2024

But back to 2023 for a minute - the Chiefs scored 22.2 points per game on offense, which was good for just 14th in the NFL. And they averaged the 8th-most yards per game (357.9) after leading the league in 2022 with over 400 yards of offense per game.

And they still won it all thanks to an elite defense and some pretty damn good coaching by Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo in the playoffs.

This season, they should be deadly, and I expect the offense to bounce back in a big way. Mahomes now has his best set of weapons since Tyreek Hill left, and instead of cannibalizing each other, I think there's going to be enough scoring and yardage to go around and feed everyone.

The addition of Samaje Perine as the third-down back dings Pacheco a bit, but if fewer snaps also help keep him healthy and productive, he's going to put up solid numbers in this offense. Kelce and Rice could feast in the short passing game if Worthy turns out to be the legit deep threat that he's being billed as.

I tend to agree with my buddy Frank here - that we see Mahomes ascend back to QB1 status with the type of volume and efficiency that he's proven capable of producing.

The more drafts I've done throughout the offseason, the more I realize that I like Patrick Mahomes the most at QB.

I find myself even preferring Mahomes over Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

This needs to be reflected in my ranks.

Mahomes is now my overall QB1.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 30, 2024

Draft some Chiefs on those teams; I really don't think you can go wrong here as long as you don't go overboard and reach for them an entire round too early (Rashee Rice might be the exception here).

2. The Jacksonville Jaguars make the Playoffs...

And produce great fantasy seasons from Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Evan Engram

If you happen to miss out on some or all of the Chiefs, then the Jags core group of offensive players are all guys I am targeting, too, and they're cheaper.

Trevor Lawrence took a step back last season, finishing with four fewer touchdowns and six more interceptions. But the passing yardage was still there, and he provided some sneaky rushing upside with 339 yards of rushing and four touchdowns. He never really clicked with Calvin Ridley and didn't have his safety blanket, Kirk, available for a bunch of games, too.

I think the T-Law truthers were just a year early on the breakout and that this is the season we see Lawrence take that next step toward being a top-tier QB. He's being drafted in the "QB-dead zone" after the top group of passers are already off the board but I think he easily has a chance of matching C.J. Stroud statistically and is going 50-60 picks later.

Etienne Jr. is about one of the safest picks you can make in the second round, as he's one of the last bell cow backs available. I am a big believer in a bounce-back year from Christian Kirk (ADP of 67), especially in PPR formats, as long as he can stay healthy.

People keep raving about Brian Thomas Jr., and I'm here for it. At pick 115, I think he's a steal, considering he could end up finishing as the WR1 on this team by season's end.

Brian Thomas Jr. is SOO MUCH MORE than just deep threat. He has shown off his underappreciated route running all training camp and preseason. He isn’t just a fast guy who can get open. His ability to know WHEN HE IS OPEN is special. You got one Jags fans.
pic.twitter.com/KBiKWrG36m

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) August 24, 2024

I've never been a big Evan Engram guy, but let's acknowledge he's coming off a 114-catch, 143-target season and can be an incredibly valuable asset in PPR formats. He's scored just four touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. If he can increase that to the 6-8 range, we are talking about a big year from him, too.

Again, the theory here is that if this offense is firing at full capacity, all of these players are going to help each other get open and have success - not detract from each other.

3. 2024 is the Year of the Rookie Running Back...

And at least one rookie RB finishes inside the top 15 this season.

A lot of rookie wide receivers are being relied on to produce right out of the gates, including players such as Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, and Ladd McConkey.

But every single one of those receivers will be off the board in your draft before the first rookie running back is taken. And some of these runners are in pretty good spots to produce this year if things break their way.

It's probably not going to happen for Jonathon Brooks now that he's set to open the season on the PUP list and miss the first four games. However, I love Trey Benson in Arizona backing up an oft-injured James Conner and Blake Corum in L.A. backing up Kyren Williams.

If either of those backs moves into a starting role due to injury, we could be looking at really big years from them, and they would become massive values at their ADP. Corum, in particular, is trending up with ADP, with speculation that he could eat into Williams's touches even without injury.

Jaylen Wright has two backs ahead of him with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, but he is arguably in the best offense for potential production. If either of those backs goes down, we saw that offense sustain two top-10 finishes from running backs last season.

Jaylen Wright:

-4th-rounder that Miami traded 2025 third-rounder for
-Freak athlete - 33rd best RAS since 1987
-NFL's reigning No. 1 offense expected RB PPR points per game
-Seemingly one injury to Mostert or Achane away from being in 1.B role
-Very good handcuff in fantasy land

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 29, 2024

MarShawn Lloyd's path to relevance got a little easier when A.J. Dillon was ruled out for the season. An injury to Josh Jacobs would potentially put Lloyd into a starting role on an offense that finished the season strong, averaging 134 yards rushing in their final three regular-season games before running over the Dallas Cowboys and almost upsetting the Niners in the playoffs.

Ray Davis is another guy I am drafting often in the late rounds as he's likely to eat into James Cook's touches this season and could also end up being their short-yardage and goal-line back. Buffalo's offense is good enough to sustain a top-15 from a running back, even with Josh Allen stealing rushing touchdowns.

I didn't even mention Braelon Allen, who is backing up Breece Hall in New York and makes for one of the best handcuffs in fantasy this year.

Not every rookie runner will make a big impact this year, but the five guys that I mentioned here are good enough to win you a league if they are presented with enough opportunities this season.

4. The Steelers finish a losing record for the first time in Mike Tomlin's career...

And we get disappointing fantasy performances from Steelers across the board, other than Pat Freiermuth.

I can proudly say that I have watched every Pittsburgh Steelers game over the last 25 years. I was born in Western Pennsylvania where Steeler fandom isn't just a birthright, it's an expectation. I don't want to complain about the mediocrity of this franchise for the last ten years because, well...we still have our six Super Bowl titles.

I am reminded quite often by fans of teams like the Browns and Jets that having your team be relevant every season - even if they are not winning titles - is still better than having them suck for a decade.

And maybe this is just an elaborate reverse jinx attempt by yours truly because if I go into this season with incredibly low expectations, then I won't get my hopes dashed. My favorite teams tend to over or underperform based on how much I've invested in them (emotionally and financially).

But back to some objective analysis - what makes us think that this Steelers team is going to be any better than last year's? We all know that last year's team overachieved in a big way and managed to sneak into the playoffs, thanks to a soft schedule and a whole lot of luck.

Joe Burrow got hurt and tanked the Bengals' chances, while the Browns lost their franchise running back and dealt with major injuries. And when while the 2023 Steelers did win 10 games and make the playoffs, they also still lost to Arizona (4-13) and New England (4-13) at home in the same season.

The "new look" Pittsburgh Steelers

OC: Matt Canada --> Arthur Smith
QB: Kenny Pickett --> Russell Wilson / Justin Fields
RB: Najee Harris & Jaylen Warren
WR1: George Pickens
WR2: Diontae Johnson --> Calvin Austin
WR3: Allen Robinson --> Van Jefferson
TE: Pat Freiermuth pic.twitter.com/ZZdALFPrHe

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 28, 2024

I'm glad Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky are gone, but is Russell Wilson a major upgrade or just a small one? And how long will it take Tomlin to go to Justin Fields if Wilson doesn't play well early in the year? And is Fields even any good?

Many will be quick to point out that the Steelers improved their offensive line and will look to be a run-heavy offense again this season with Arthur Smith calling the plays.

That's all well and good, but at some point, defenses are going to load up on the run and force the Steelers to beat them through the air - something I am not convinced they can do with George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth being the top options for Wilson or Fields.

The schedule for Pittsburgh this year is one of the toughest in the NFL. Not only do they have six games against division rivals who are all projected to be .500 or better, but they also have games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Jets, Falcons, Chargers, and Colts.

From Week 11 to the end of the season, they finish with all of their division games with Philly and Kansas City mixed in there - a true gauntlet to end the season.

Whether you are a Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren fan, the timeshare situation is not favorable, and if the offense sputters, there's a chance that neither of them will make value on their ADP this year.

Pickens is a talent, but if the quarterback play is substandard, then he's not likely to pay off for fantasy owners either. I'm still on  Freiermuth at cost, mainly because Smith loves to feature the tight end in his offense and he feels like he's going to be targeted a ton by whoever is playing QB this year.

I'm ready to be disappointed this season (as a fan) and Freiermuth is the only Steeler whom I have invested in for fantasy this season.

5. We see a surprise finish inside the Top-5 at every skill position...

At Quarterback, it's Caleb Williams...

I wasn't entirely sold on Williams until I saw him in the preseason. I knew about his mobility and his big arm, but some of the throws he made even in just limited action this preseason were jaw-dropping and I think he's got the "it gene" that only a few other QBs have when it comes to being able to make just about any throw (Mahomes, Allen).

Caleb Williams has been named a team captain in his rookie season. https://t.co/nrT3Z1Femz

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 2, 2024

At Running Back, it's David Montgomery...

Something tells me that Jahmyr Gibbs is going to struggle to stay healthy. And because of that, his coach is going to handle him extra carefully even when he does suit up - kind of like they did with D'Andre Swift.

That could pave the way for Monty to get 300+ touches this season in one of the best offenses in football. I think he scores even more touchdowns (he had 13 last year) and just obliterates his mid-round ADP.

At Wide Receiver, it's Drake London...

I'll admit that I have become enamored with Drake London this offseason. You can throw his first two seasons out of the window statistically as he dealt with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL and was stuck in a run-first offense of Arthur Smith's. Kirk Cousins is one of the most accurate passers in the league and could elevate London in a big way.

Drake is a big, rangy receiver with excellent hands and the ability to make big plays. He's been getting steamed up by plenty of touts this offseason, but I think it's for good reason.

At Tight End, it's Jake Ferguson...

The big man flourished last year in his first season without Dalton Schultz ahead of him, scoring five touchdowns and piling up 761 yards. However, he had one of the highest red zone target rates and probably should have caught at least 7-8 TDs last year.

With the Cowboys lacking a clear WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, I think we see Ferguson's role grow this season, and he pushes up toward 1,000 yards as one of Dak's favorite targets.

Perhaps my boldest prediction is that RotoBaller will continue to be the top source for fantasy football news and content in 2024. Wait, that's not bold at all...that's all but a given! I wish you all the best of luck with your remaining drafts and enjoy this season, I think it's going to be another amazing one for fans and fantasy players alike!

More Fantasy Football Analysis