RADIO
Thunder Dan Palyo explains his 2020 NFL DFS strategy. He lays out his process for building winning cash game and GPP lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello there, RotoBallers, and welcome to my personal NFL strategy guide for both FanDuel and DraftKings. I know you are as excited for the start of the 2020 NFL season as I am and we don't have to wait much longer for the return of our beloved football (and fantasy football..and NFL DFS...and betting on NFL!)
I am “Thunder Dan” and I’ll be doing some of the premium NFL DFS content here at RotoBaller this season. This article is going to attempt to give you some insight as to what factors you should consider when building your NFL DFS lineups. Whether it's cash games or tournaments, you need to have a process that you follow each week and you have to trust that process. One of the biggest mistakes I've seen players make over the years is to listen to dozens of podcasts and read dozens are articles every week and then play EVERYONE that every analyst they listen to suggests playing. In today’s DFS landscape, there can be an overwhelming amount of information to process.
Cash Game Strategy
This season I'll be writing our premium RB/WR anchors column and that's exactly where I start my cash build process. Identifying the best high-floor plays at those two positions is absolutely key in building successful cash game lineups. Traditionally, my builds have followed the following format although every week is different and must-play values can show up at different positions on any given week.
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- Pay down at Quarterback
- Pay up for two running backs.
Guys like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have definitely challenged my #1 rule here with their rushing ability and insane production last year, but I still wouldn't prioritize QB with too much of my salary cap unless there's simply enough value elsewhere to do it. Scoring at the QB position is still relatively static and there's usually a good chance you can get similar production from a cheaper QB. Running quarterbacks are always nice for cash as they have a higher floor and a chance at a rushing TD, but a guy like Lamar Jackson is going to cost you an arm and a leg in salary. Meanwhile, a guy like Tyrod Taylor has the same rushing upside for thousands less.
I'd much rather target workhorse running backs (a dying breed in today's NFL) and receivers with high target projections in good matchups. Running back is the one position where volume is everything and more predictable than any other position (other than QB). Many backs are being used out of the backfield more than ever in today's modern NFL schemes giving them an even higher floor in a full PPR format on DraftKings while rushing touchdowns are king on FanDuel and I usually want to make sure that my cash game back is getting a healthy amount of work near the goal line.
- Find at least one value at WR.
- Pay down at TE whenever possible.
Keeping PPR scoring in mind, receivers with high target floors (usually guys who run a lot of short and intermediate routes - think Jarvis Landry or Emmanuel Sanders) make for great cash game targets on DraftKings but may not have the same appeal on FanDuel if they're not able to get into the end zone. Don't make the mistake of trying to shoehorn the same players into your cash lineup on both sites as your builds might be very different from week to week with pricing and certain players being more desirable on one site versus the other.
While we are in an era of unprecedented athleticism at the tight end position and many would argue for paying for the likes of George Kittle or Travis Kelce in cash games, I would actually argue that the depth of the position gives us a number of cheap targets every week. Yes, Kelce and Kittle are going to have a higher floor than most other players at the position, but they'll also cost you as much as a high-end wide receiver, and often times they are very touchdown-dependent for much of their scoring.
- Find a cheap defense with some upside.
- Play a third running back as your flex.
Defense/Special Teams is the position with the most variance of any slot on your roster and I simply won't pay up for a "safe defense with a good matchup." How often have you paid for the most expensive defense only to see them put up a boring score against a bad offense because they only gave up 7 points but also only had one takeaway? It's simply not worth it to pay 1-2k more for the safety of a good defense when there are going to be several defenses every week that give you the 10 fantasy points you're looking for instead. Plus, we see cheap defenses get defensive touchdowns or special teams touchdowns just about every week. Save that salary cap space for position players!
Rule #6 is certainly somewhat slate-dependent and applies more to FanDuel than DraftKings with its PPR scoring. However, I am pretty much always going to have a third running back in cash games on either site. Like we said earlier, they simply have more guaranteed touches than any other position on the field and therefore you're raising the floor of your entire roster by going RB-heavy in cash.
Lastly, I want to mention my strategy with when to eat and not eat the consensus chalk. Just about every week there's going to be a value play that ends up becoming chalky by the week's end. The cheaper the play, the more likely I am to eat the chalk as that player usually has a lower chance at busting entirely since we are investing such a small amount of cap in them. However, be wary of high-priced chalk as that player has to hit their floor or you're in big trouble. I'm okay with eating chalk when you feel strongly about a player being a good play, but I also don't think you have to force popular plays into your lineup just because you want to match the field.
GPP Strategy
So what does make a player a "GPP play" but not “safe enough for cash games?” It's usually the volatility in his game log and lack of steady production that can scare people off these types of "boom/bust" players. But these are exactly the types of players we want to target in GPPs - the wide receivers who can break a slate with long TD receptions or third-down backs who can take a screen pass to the house.
Here are a few of my favorite GPP strategies.
- Correlation is everything. Stacking is paramount!
If you’re not stacking in GPPs, then you're simply not giving yourself the best chance to win. Stacking, meaning using teammates from the same team (or opposing teams in the same game) in the same lineup, is easily the most important thing you can do in your GPP lineups.
The NFL has become a pass-first league and we see multiple quarterbacks throwing for 300+ yards every week and 3 or more touchdowns. If you can pair one of these Quarterbacks up with the receiver(s) that catch those TDs, you are locking in a large chunk of fantasy points. While two-man stacks are often the most common, three-man stacks are certainly viable if an offense is projected to have a big week and are especially effective if a lot of production for one team is consolidated among three of its offensive player.
My biggest win last season was Week 16 when I rolled out one of my favorite three-man stacks of Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and A.J. Brown. The idea was to lock in as much of the offensive production from Tennessee in a good matchup against a weak Texans Defense in a game that the Titans really needed to win. Tannehill ended up throwing for only 198 yards but two touchdowns and one of those scores was to Brown who accounted for 124 of Tannehill's yards. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry went full beast-mode and ran for 211 yards and 3 scores. It was a relatively cheap stack with Tanny and Brown being values allowing me to pay up for Henry and a few other studs in my lineup and those three players accounted for 90% of Tennesee's offense and I had a piece of all five touchdowns scored.
- Find a matchup you like and attack it aggressively.
- Sometimes you have to ignore Vegas.
The best part (and sometimes worst part) of NFL DFS is that we have an entire week to research games and find the spots we like the best. If you think you've found an angle on something, you have to run with it. It could be stacking a low-total game while fading a popular game with a higher total. It could be a specific WR-CB matchup that you think really favors one side or the other. You have to have enough confidence in your research and trust your gut while weighing all the other factors at work. Come Sunday morning, you shouldn't be second-guessing yourself, just waiting for injury info and entering those contests you want to target for the week.
- The bigger the field, the more creative you need to be.
Every lineup should tell a story. I have dozens of baseball, football, or basketball lineups shared with me on Twitter or in Slack and the first thing I look for is "what needs to happen for this lineup to hit." We are trying to predict game scripts and therefore the players in your lineup should all correlate in a way where a specific outcome of that game would have them maximizing their value.
You’re going to be wrong a lot more often than you think as NFL DFS is full of variance just like any other sport. But if you are building lineups that are correlated and using some of the tried and true methods of stacking you’re going to at least have lineups that have the potential to win tournaments. Be greedy when others are fearful when building those GPP lineups! Good luck this season and make sure you ride with us at RotoBaller in 2020!
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