X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three September Surgers Who Could Falter in 2017

Month-to-month splits can sometimes be misleading. The baseball season is so long that mining one month’s worth of data to determine a trend can be a dangerous game. That being said, September (and the few days the regular season bleeds into October) can tell us more than other months.

September is a unique month for baseball in that rosters expand and the league sees a flood of replacement-level pitchers and hitters enter the league. As such, September can often be a month for fool’s gold.

Here are three players all going in the middle rounds of 2017 leagues whose strong Septembers might not necessarily portend that same level of greatness in 2017.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Three September Surgers Who Could Struggle

Justin Upton (RotoBaller rank: 57; ADP in NFBC: 94)

Upton must have grown up a big fan of the Charlie Brown comics, and I’m guessing his favorite character was Lucy. He seems to lead us on every year, only to pull the football away once the actual season starts, leaving us on our backs, with a fifth-rounder producing like a 50th-rounder. In 2016, Upton spent the first three-quarters of the season making himself Public Enemy Number One for every fantasy owner who drafted him in 2016, before going beast mode in the final 37 games to totally redeem himself. Well at least partially redeem himself. As of August 20, Upton was slashing .228/.283/.374 and had just 13 HR. Then over the final month-plus, he tallied 18 HR and slashed .303/.395/.765 to bring his end-of-season totals to a respectable level (31 HR .246 BA) almost certainly in an attempt to draw us back in for 2017 fantasy baseball.

There was certainly some bad luck involved in Upton’s early-season struggles, as he posted a mere 3.7 percent HR/FB rate for the entire month of May and had a 10.2 percent HR/FB rate for the entire first half. Given Upton’s career 15.4 percent HR/FB rate, it's fair to say Upton started off a bit unlucky. But it was nothing compared to the insane good luck Upton got in September. For the final month of the season, Upton rocked a 35.1 percent HR/FB rate, well over twice his career rate. The jump was so extreme that his total season HR/FB rate (18.3 percent) ended up higher than his career rate and almost the highest rate of his career.

With Upton, a player who has never quite lived up to his prospect hype, it’s easy to imagine Upton thriving on some of the lower quality of pitching so prevalent after roster expansion. Of the 18 aforementioned HR, there are certainly quite a few off the dregs of the league. Here are some of the names Upton took deep in those final 37 games: Henry Owens (x2), Tyler Duffey, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Chris Beck, Alex Wimmers, Adam Plutko, Brandon Cuniff, Todd Sodburger and Aaron Blair. And I only made up one of those names. Upton got to Danny Duffy and Corey Kluber a couple times each, but he really picked on some of that lower-level talent. As someone who had Upton on his team throughout 2016, I’ll be avoiding him in 2017, even after his awesome end to 2016.

 

Yasmany Tomas (RotoBaller rank: 209; ADP in NFBC: 159)

The RotoBaller ranks don’t love Tomas, and I couldn’t agree more. On the surface, Tomas looks like a stud. He hit 31 HR in 2016, to go along with a .272 BA. He was one of only 16 players to reach those figures last season and he’s being drafted much later than most of those guys. On the other hand, Tomas has some of the worst plate discipline numbers in the league. For starters, his .313 OBP is truly heinous for a .272 hitter. Most leagues reward BA not OBP, but that dreadful OBP still really hurts his R totals, which came in at a pedestrian 72 in 2016.

It’s not as if Tomas is simply an aggressive hitter either. His 42.4 percent swing rate on pitches out of the strike zone was the fifth-highest in all of baseball in 2016. His contact rate on those swings? Just 57.6 percent, 25th-worst in MLB in 2016. That’s a killer combo, and it’s only a matter of time before opposing pitchers take true advantage of that lack of plate discipline. It’s not just his lack of plate discipline either, his swing has some serious holes in it as evidenced by his 16.3 percent swinging strike rate - second-highest among qualified hitters in 2016. That evidence alone should be enough to show that Tomas’ BA should drop into the .240-.250 range, but what about his power?

Tomas would still be serviceable in 2017 if he could hit .250 with 30 HR. However, Tomas relied on a fluky 25.0 percent HR/FB rate in 2016 that was powered by an impressive hard hit ball rate (41.0 percent) but was hindered by a poor fly ball rate (31.4 percent). One could see that and say “once Tomas starts to hit more fly balls, he’ll hit even more home runs,” or they could say “if Tomas doesn’t continue to hit the ball harder than Kris Bryant in 2017, his HR/FB rate is going to drop off quickly.” I’ll take the latter of the two statements, and I see Tomas coming down to the 25 HR range. When paired with a BA due for regression and extremely mediocre R and RBI totals, Tomas loses a lot of his shine.

 

Dan Straily (RotoBaller rank: 332; ADP in NFBC: 350)

Maybe you don’t need talking out on Straily. He’s only going to be a target in NL-only leagues and most of you will see his ERA-FIP (second-worst in the league at -1.11) and flee for the hills. But there are undoubtedly some of you who will see Straily’s final month (4-1, 3.13 ERA, 8.68 K/9) and start to talk yourself into the five-year veteran. You’ll think about how the move to Marlins Park is only going to help a career 46.8 percent fly ball pitcher, and you’ll think maybe he’s one of those guys who will be able to beat his FIP for five or six seasons and I can keep getting a discount while others write him off unnecessarily.

Don’t do that!

Straily deserves to be written off, even in NL-only leagues. He’s a pitcher who can barely top 90 mph with his fastball and had an xFIP over 5.00 last season. I know he managed to get 14 wins for a dreadful Reds team last year, but he did that with a surprising amount of run support and insanely lucky peripherals. His .239 BABIP against was second-lowest in the major leagues and his 81.2 percent left on base rate was sixth-highest. Don’t go banking on those two trends to repeat themselves in 2017, you’ll be very sorry if you do. Don’t overthink this one, just stay away.

 

More Potential Overvalued Draft Picks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday
Lawrence Butler

Absent From Lineup On Saturday
Ezequiel Tovar

Still A Week Or So Away From Return From IL

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Catches Bullpen Session On Saturday

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Dylan Carlson

Recalled By Baltimore
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Beeks

Avoids Serious Injury

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Lucas Giolito

Starting On Wednesday Vs. Toronto

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Tyler O'Neill

Heading To The IL

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Mike Trout

Blasts His Ninth Home Run Of The Season

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round
Ryan Mountcastle

Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle Not In Game 1 Lineup

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Wasn't Available Friday Due To Recent Usage

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Ha-Seong Kim

Targeting June/July Return
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
MLB

Yankees and Blue Jays Postponed On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF