RADIO
The second year for skill position players is often thought to be the breakout year for many NFL careers. After spending a year getting acclimated to the league, developing rapport with teammates, and adjusting to game speed, second-year players tend to leap. Those players who leap are gold in fantasy football's best ball drafts. Often they are undervalued, underdrafted, and valuable best ball assets. However, some second-year players have already broken out or are not in the right opportunity to do so.
In this piece, I will be looking at three second-year players who could be a bust in best ball drafts on Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). These players might not have had good rookie years, but chasing the upside of higher-ceiling players is a better option in 2024. For expanded best ball rosters, these volatile players are not ideal selections at their ADPs. For each player, I will include their current FFPC ADP as well as where they stand in RotoBaller's Best Ball rankings.
If you have played on FFPC, you will have noticed slight nuances to its scoring system that must be considered when drafting best ball teams. The first scoring quirk to consider is that quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing instead of the traditional 25 yards. This means pocket passers get a little more of a bump compared to other best ball tournaments where rushing quarterbacks rule. Secondly, FFPC is a tight-end premium site. That means tight ends get 1.5 points per reception, while all other skill positions receive one point.
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Three Second-Year Bust Candidates in FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions
FFPC ADP: 14.1
RotoBaller Rank: 8
Look, I love Sam LaPorta as much as the next guy. I especially love him in tight-end-premium formats like FFPC Best Ball leagues. However, coming off a legendary and unprecedented rookie season, we are being asked to pay almost a first-round price tag for him in 2024 drafts. Are we 100% confident he won't see some regression, especially in the touchdown department?
LaPorta finished the year with 120 targets (fifth among tight ends) and 86 receptions (fourth). His 10 touchdowns easily led the position and no other player had more than six. He played in 17 games and was in on 83% of Detroit's offensive snaps last year. All this is used to make the point that everything went right for LaPorta in 2023.
What happens if Jameson Williams is that guy and demands a 20% target share? What happens if LaPorta's 16 red-zone targets (fourth at the position) fall by three or four? Jared Goff threw a whopping 605 passes last season and completed a career-high 67.3% of them. What happens if he regresses slightly this year?
Dalton Kincaid (80.2%) had a higher catch percentage last season than Sam LaPorta (71.7%) pic.twitter.com/nx6NJOxYns
— Legit Football (@_legitfootball) August 29, 2024
I certainly think LaPorta is one of the top three tight ends in fantasy football this year, but I can't pass on players at similar ADP like Puka Nacua and teammate Jahmyr Gibbs when I can get Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, or Kyle Pitts all within the next 20 picks of the draft. At his ADP, LaPorta may let us down.
Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts
FFPC ADP: 173.5
RotoBaller Rank: 170
As a rookie in 2023, Josh Downs played an excellent Robin to Michael Pittman Jr.'s Batman. Downs was second on the team in targets (98), receptions (his 68 were more than double any other receiver not named Pittman), and receiving yards per game. His 17% target share in the red zone was slightly higher than Pittman's.
#Colts WR Josh Downs does a great job at varying his speed to create separation. pic.twitter.com/xduxOx48fj
— Gridiron Gazette (@grid1rongazette) August 25, 2024
However, most of that was with YOLO-style quarterback Gardner Minshew II, who has since taken his talents to Las Vegas. Anthony Richardson is back, and there is a chance the passing game as a whole digresses in 2024. With Richardson, things didn't look as good as with someone more of a true pocket passer. In addition, Downs has rookie Adonai Mitchell to deal with this season.
In the four games Richardson was healthy, Downs averaged 5.3 targets, 3.8 receptions, and 49 receiving yards per game. In his other games with Minshew last season, Downs averaged 5.9 targets, 4.1 receptions, and 44.5 yards per game, including his only two touchdowns. Overall, his catchable target rate was 79.6% (10th in the league). Richardson is unlikely to be that accurate.
Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals
FFPC ADP: 94.6
RotoBaller Rank: 113
We have entered the portion of draft season where Chase Brown has officially passed Zack Moss in ADP and he is continuing to climb higher. Now being drafted inside the top 95 players on FFPC Best Ball drafts, Brown is almost 15 spots higher than backfield mate Moss (he is at ADP 108.9).
On a full PPR site like FFPC, Brown's bump up the ADP charts makes sense, but he also has the opportunity to let us down.
Here are the six Chase Brown 2024 preseason touches for 10 yards that you ordered, enjoy. pic.twitter.com/TmDQQetVLs
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 20, 2024
Right now, there is no clear certainty as to which player will lead this backfield in Cincinnati. Zack Moss was an extremely capable fill-in for Jonathan Taylor during his time missed last year (Moss was fourth in running back fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-5 last year), so he can manage a full workload.
Brown was inefficient with 3.8 true yards per carry (47th among running backs) and just a 3.6% target share.
I see this as more of a true split backfield instead of one player good enough to grab a 65% opportunity share. The early downs and some of the goal-line work should belong to Moss, meaning he is more of a true value at pick 109 than Brown is right now at 95.
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