Overvalued Running Backs for Fantasy Football Drafts - Potential 2024 Busts

The 2024 NFL season is fast approaching. That means fantasy football draft season is here. If you’re a diehard fantasy football player, it’s the most exciting time of the year. There’s nothing quite like the thrills, nerves, and jeering from league mates that come during a fantasy football draft.

As fun as that all sounds, it’s important to remember that there are players who disappoint every year. Select enough of these players, and you’ll find yourself performing some humiliating punishment at season’s end. One of the keys to staying competitive in any fantasy football league is spotting potential landmines in the draft. Knowing who to avoid is oftentimes more important than knowing who to draft.

Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are three overvalued running backs to avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.

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Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 was a true breakout season for White as he finished as the PPR RB4.

Rachaad White finds the end zone 🚨

The Bucs have tied the game right before the end of the 3rd quarter.#NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/oez68FcvEC

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 21, 2024

Even though White delivered the goods for fantasy managers, things get a little concerning when we look under the hood. Among 49 rushers with at least 90 carries, White finished:

• 42nd in MTF/ATT
• 49th in RYOE
• 44th in PFF’s Rushing Grade.
• 28th in PFF’s Elusive Rating
• 40th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Explosive Run Percentage (EXP RUN %)

Here is how White finished in these same metrics as a rookie in 2022 (Among 48 rushers with 90+ carries):

• 46th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT)
• 39th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)
• 46th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) Rushing Grade
• 41st in PFF Elusive Rating
• 38th in Fantasy Points Data Suite's Explosive Run Percentage (Exp Run %)

Two years into his career, we have enough data to say that White is a below-average back at the NFL level. Should Tampa Bay begin losing games this year, the team might experiment with other options. It may only be a matter of time until White’s inefficiency catches up with him. While he was a reliable player down the homestretch in 2023, it’s best to fade White in drafts this year.

Josh Jacobs - Green Bay Packers

Jacobs’ 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics. He finished 45th in RYOE, 41st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in MTF/ATT. These are concerning marks, and outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.

The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, but he has a major fumbling problem. The Packers have stated they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film.

If that statement is true, it makes you wonder how the team views Jacobs. There have been conflicting reports regarding Lloyd’s expected role with the team this year. Even still, if Jacobs’ struggles from last year bleed into 2024, Green Bay might give Lloyd an extended run with more touches. There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs.

D’Andre Swift - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears began their offseason by signing Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. 2023 was a career year for him. He accumulated over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000 rushing yard mark for the first time in his career.

Well, one Swift is showing up in Kansas City 😏

7 carries, 37 yards, TD

9.7 fantasy points for D’Andre already!!pic.twitter.com/4eYZCXvi20

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 21, 2023

While Swift’s surface-level stats look good, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Swift finished only 40th in RYOE. Among running backs with at least 90 carries, Swift finished 36th in Elusive Rating, 39th in PFF’s Rushing Grade, and 30th in MTF/ATT.

Looking at this data, it’s unclear that Swift is even the best running back on the Bears’ roster. Backmate Khalil Herbert graded higher than Swift in every one of the above metrics. Herbert finished 10th in Elusive Rating, 20th in RYOE, 9th in MTF/ATT, and was PFF’s 15th highest-graded rusher.

It’s not unreasonable to suggest he could eventually emerge as the preferred back. Now, there have been rumors that Herbert could be on the roster bubble. Should he be released, it would obviously remove some major competition. However, it still doesn’t mean Swift is completely safe if his play remains subpar.

There is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal. If Swift struggles or injuries plague him, don’t be surprised if Herbert or someone else can wrestle the starting job away.