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Dave Ventresca details three overvalued wide receivers who could bust in 2024 fantasy football. Fantasy gamers should avoid these players in their drafts.
If you’re a longtime fantasy football player, then you know how expensive wide receivers have become. More and more fantasy gamers are moving away from the fragility of running backs and are investing in the safer option.
However, just because wide receivers are viewed as being safe, it doesn’t mean there aren’t landmines at the position. For our exercise today, we will use Yahoo fantasy football ADP to identify several overvalued wide receivers.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are three overvalued wide receivers who you should avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
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Marvin Harrison Jr. - Arizona Cardinals
Yahoo ADP: 18.7; Overall: WR9
Before we get started -- Harrison is a stud. There's no debating that, and he’s going to be a fantastic pro.
Great throw. Great catch. Touchdown Marvin Harrison Jr. pic.twitter.com/Pfq5EO6SJE
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 12, 2023
Gamers have high expectations for the rookie. He is being drafted as the WR9 in Yahoo drafts. We’ve seen rookie receivers come into the league and beat Harrison’s current ADP. Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua both posted top-5 seasons as rookies. However, this should be seen as the exception, not the norm.
Harrison will see a healthy amount of targets as he immediately slides in as Arizona’s WR1. But how much room for profit is there at his current ADP? He’s one of the best receiver prospects to enter the league in recent years, but that doesn’t guarantee anything.
Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson both finished outside the top 30 during their rookie seasons. They were both equally touted prospects as Harrison. We shouldn’t expect things to go that poorly for him as a rookie, but we shouldn’t expect a top-10 season right off the bat, either.
Davante Adams - Las Vegas Raiders
Yahoo ADP: 21.2; Overall: WR10
While Adams had another strong season in 2023, there are several reasons to be concerned about his 2024. Las Vegas figures to have a run-oriented offense, and a Gardner Minshew II/Aidan O’Connell quarterback combination doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
He still drew targets at a high rate last year despite poor quarterback play, but he also turns 32 during the season. We have seen players drop off fast during their 30s, and there’s no telling when it will happen with Adams. Father Time always wins.
It just feels like the deck is stacked against Adams this year. While he’s long been a top fantasy producer, we must recognize the reality of Adams' situation. A second-round price tag is a high ask considering everything surrounding him.
It would be easier to get on board if he were going a round or two later. This price tag is just a little too expensive.
Nico Collins - Houston Texans
Yahoo ADP: 34.9; Overall: WR17
Collins enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 as he set career highs across the board. While he was a bargain in drafts last year, gamers now have to pay a premium for his services. It’s understandable, as Collins’ play was incredible.
His analytical profile was also off the charts. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his 3.37 yards per route run was second only to Tyreek Hill.
Nico Collins puts the Texans up with a 15-yard TD catch! 🐂
Over 73.5 rec yards and anytime scorer (+150) bettors cash early (odds via @DKSportsbook)
(Via: NFL, NBC)pic.twitter.com/8aVJ7gP2hw
— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) January 13, 2024
Despite the breakout season, there are a few issues that complicate matters. Houston acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason, and Collins already has second-year receiver Tank Dell to compete with for targets.
Dell is set to return from a leg injury that ended his rookie season. This is a concern for Collins. When both he and Dell were on the field last year, Dell appeared to be the team’s top receiver.
Nico Collins vs. Tank Dell
[in games each played 60%+ of snaps]Target share: 21.0% to 21.4%
Yards per game: 85.9 to 80.3
Air yards share: 25.7% to 35.1%FPG: 18.2 to 18.8
Are you sure you're drafting the correct Texans WR first? pic.twitter.com/wLNZQzAAit
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) August 12, 2024
Diggs now adds further target competition into the mix, and it’s unclear exactly how targets will be divided among these three players. While Collins is undoubtedly talented, paying up for him without knowing how targets will be distributed doesn’t feel like the smartest play.
Collins’ Yahoo ADP of 35th overall is too high for a player who may not even be the top receiver on his team.
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