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Drafting the right quarterback can usually set you up for a successful fantasy football season.
However, it is important to use average draft position (ADP) to identify valued and overvalued players at their positions. For example, last season, Jordan Love was extremely undervalued and was a league-winner down the stretch, while Justin Herbert was a major disappointment as the QB6.
In this piece, I will analyze three quarterbacks who are being drafted too high and may not live up to their overvalued ADP.
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Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Current ADP: 25.1, QB1
It is not groundbreaking to say that the first quarterback being drafted in most leagues is overvalued. Given his current price, I believe that Allen should be pushed down your board much lower than where he is going, but not for the reasons you expect.
Allen finished as the QB1 last season, tallying 410.9 fantasy points with 44 total touchdowns (29 passing, 15 rushing), 4,306 passing yards, and 524 rushing yards.
JOSH ALLEN TO Khalil Shakir FOR THE LEAD 🔥
pic.twitter.com/ax3HvU5TM1— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) January 22, 2024
His 29 passing scores were the first time since 2019 that he had less than 30 touchdown passes in a season. However, his 15 rushing scores were the first time he had eclipsed the double-digit mark.
With his elite rushing upside, especially in the red zone, how could the Wyoming product possibly be overvalued? The primary reason is that he will be without his alpha pass-catcher, Stefon Diggs. Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans this offseason.
After joining Buffalo in 2020, Diggs averaged 9.3 receiving touchdowns and 1,343 yards per season. This is significant as the Bills will look to replace this elite production with second-round pick Keon Coleman, free-agent journeyman Curtis Samuel, and potential emerging receiver Khalil Shakir.
I would not be surprised if the Buffalo offense begins to pick up steam as the year progresses and Allen becomes more comfortable with his pass-catchers. However, there may be some significant growing pains, especially early on, as Diggs averaged just under 10 targets every game last season.
Also, if you take Allen at the ADP, you are betting that one of those receivers, or second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, will take a significant step forward in the passing game. Allen will not be the QB1 without a clear elite pass-catcher.
The 28-year-old quarterback could have trouble adjusting without his safety valve, and I do not see the reason to take Allen at his current ADP, especially as the first quarterback off the board. Everything needs to go right for it to pay off.
At a similar ADP, you can select a potential WR1 in Nico Collins, Drake London, or Michael Pittman Jr. or secure an elite RB2 in Isiah Pacheco.
If you want a top quarterback, I would rather wait until the following round to select Jalen Hurts (ADP 35.8), who has a higher rushing upside and much better weapons around him.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Current ADP: 45.1, QB5
Next up is the reigning Rookie Of The Year, C.J. Stroud. In his rookie campaign, Stroud blew everyone away by throwing for 4,108 yards and 23 scores and leading his team to a Divisional Round appearance.
Welcome to primetime: CJ Stroud hits Nico Collins for a 75-yard TD on his very first offensive play.
SPECIAL.pic.twitter.com/MVbavVguac
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 7, 2024
Not only will he enter 2024 with a year of experience under his belt, but he will now have four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs leading the receiving room and proven veteran Joe Mixon in the backfield.
Houston placed 25th last season in rushing attempts, with Devin Singletary leading the backfield. Mixon, entering his eighth year and age-28 season, has lost the burst he used to have, but he will still command a much higher percentage of touches (like it or not).
However, Stroud is being drafted as the fifth quarterback off the board and has little to no rushing upside. He ran for only 167 yards on the ground with three rushing scores.
The first four QBs off the board and No. 6 (Anthony Richardson) have very good rushing potential. Stroud will need to have another uber-efficient season through the air to live up to his draft position. Even in his great rookie season, he finished as the QB11; however, he missed two games. On a points-per-game level, he placed as the QB10.
Last season, Stroud boasted a 9.1 average for target depth yards and 5.6 yards after the catch, which placed him well above the average marks. However, with Mixon in the backfield, the Texans could look to move down the field a bit more on the ground, which could lower his average depth per target.
In addition, with Diggs serving as at least the 1A in the WR room, his uninspiring 3.9 yards after the catch could lower Stroud’s "spike weeks" considerably.
With a stacked wide receiver room that has three pass-catchers who could easily finish as a top-12 option at the position, the argument could be made for Stroud to finish as a top-3 option. However, with a lack of rushing upside for Stroud and the potential to utilize Mixon more on the ground, the path for Stroud to live up to his ADP is difficult.
If you are looking for an upside sophomore, wait another round and select Anthony Richardson (57.9), or take an elite tight end with Trey McBride (49.1).
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Current ADP: 64.2, QB8
Rounding out this list is the now highest-paid player in NFL history, Jordan Love. Love got off to a modest start through the first nine weeks of his first season as a starter. However, since Week 10, he averaged 24.6 points per game, which brought him up to the overall QB5 at the end of the season. During this stretch, the 25-year-old averaged 271 passing yards per game with 2.2 passing touchdowns.
The breakout year that was Jordan Love's 2023 season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/m71s3Uiype
— NFL (@NFL) July 27, 2024
My concern with Love is that he is currently being drafted as the QB8, which is higher than proven options such as Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray. Even though Love was special down the stretch and won many fantasy managers' leagues almost on his own, it is tough to immediately crown him in the upper tier of passers.
A similar argument with Stroud, Love does not possess elite rushing upside as he ran for only 247 yards on the ground with three rushing scores. The Packers also brought in Josh Jacobs to serve as the primary running back and drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round out of USC to serve as a change-of-pace option.
Last season, Green Bay finished 18th in rushing attempts, but I would not be surprised if that number grew this fall with Jacobs and the new rookie. As a result, that would lower Love’s attempts and force him to be smart and extra-efficient in the opportunities he has.
While Green Bay does have a wide receiver room of potential budding stars like Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs, who will continue to only improve, Love needs to play almost just as well as he did down the stretch to live up to his ADP.
Instead, I would pivot and select either Prescott (68.1) or Murray (77.9) or wait another few rounds and select a high-upside rookie in Jayden Daniels (103.0), who has incredible rushing upside and more than any other quarterback at that point of the draft.
Arguing that these QBs are overvalued does not mean I will "fade" them on draft day. If their ADP drops slightly over the next few weeks, I would be more than happy to have them lead my fantasy team this fall. Currently, given their situation, everything needs to go right to simply break even on their current ADP.
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