March 29, 2016

Pierre Camus analyzes three young players and prospects whose fantasy value may not match the expectant prices being paid for them in 2016 drafts.

As the noble poet Flavor Flav once proclaimed, "Don't Believe the Hype!" No sport is more rife with sleepers, prospects, and future superstars than baseball. The NBA and NFL have modified their draft rules to force future athletes to at least pretend to get a college education. MLB still has no problem plucking kids straight out of high school. Of course, half of these 18-year-old "phenoms" don't pan out and some don't ever sniff the inside of a Major League clubhouse. Of those who do, the hype surrounding them can get out of hand before they've even played an inning in the bigs. Nobody can predict how a rookie will adapt to Major League life, so it's always advisable to proceed cautiously when considering rookies in a standard re-draft league. Then there are those managers who pick every prospect under the sun so when one pans out, they can say "I called it!" despite finishing 10th place after the rest of their team fizzles.

Here are three players that seem to be over-hyped this season. Just to be clear, I am not saying to avoid these players or that they won't have fantasy-relevant seasons. The point, as always, is all about value. These hot prospects need to be drafted according to the production they will actually deliver this year, not just potential. Remember, for every Carlos Correa there is a Jorge Soler. Not to say Soler won't turn out to be an star, but many drafted him last year expecting big things. Most owners may not be too hot on him now, especially since he doesn't seem to have a starting job at this point. With that said, first on this list is...

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Kyle Schwarber

Prior to the 2015 season, it seemed like every other player on the Prospects to Watch list was a Cub. Kris Bryant worked out pretty well and Addison Russell had a decent debut. The jury is still out on Javier Baez and Jorge Soler. The most pleasant surprise of the group was Schwarber though. In 232 at-bats, Schwarber crushed 16 HR and 43 RBI, including five post-season homers. In Wrigley, that's enough to birth a new legend (seeing as how rare post-season success is).

It's fun to extrapolate those stats and project a 30/80 line for someone at the catcher position, which then leads to extreme foaming at the mouth by fantasy pundits. The reality is that he will now have to prove himself over a full season with higher expectations and will spend most of his time adjusting to left field. The catcher eligibility makes him a valuable commodity for sure, but taking him in the 3rd round is insane. To draft him ahead of Justin Upton, Adam Jones or George Springer is taking a big leap of faith. Upton and Jones are proven commodities that contribute in multiple categories, not just power. Springer has the chance to hit as many HR as Schwarber, plus contribute in steals with a higher average. He definitely warrants top 5 catcher status because of the lack of depth at the position, but let someone else overpay for the hype. There's bound to be at least one overzealous Cub fan in your league.

A.J. Reed

The Astros are everybody's darling now, having paid their dues toiling at or near the bottom of their division for six consecutive losing seasons before last year's Wild Card berth. The youths have finally arrived to lead Houston to the upper echelon of the American League. Correa, Keuchel, Springer, McCullers - bonafide budding stars. So AJ Reed is next in line, right? Errr... maybe?

The talent is there and it would seem the opportunity is too. Jon Singleton is doing everything in his power to force the Astros to cut him. As of this writing, he is hitting a whopping .146 in spring training with 16 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances. After finishing the previous two seasons under the Mendoza line with the 'stros, it's now painfully obvious his time is done. Their other options are Matt Duffy (the Houston one) and Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom project better as utility guys than future stars. Tyler White is threatening to take the job by default, but he is unproven as well. Enter AJ Reed, 2nd round pick from 2014 who put up monster numbers in the minors last year. He should run away with this job, right? Errr... maybe?

Reed is the Astros first baseman of the future, but in a re-draft league the question is whether that future starts now (but wouldn't that make it the present?) He is being given every chance to win the job but is only at .250 with one homer this spring. Also consider that he only has 205 at-bats above single-A ball in his brief career. The Astros are already contenders without having to rush another prospect up, so don't be surprised if they give him a little more seasoning before handing the job over. Consider Reed in keeper leagues only for now until you see proof that he's staying up with the big club.

Trevor Story

The biggest "if" of them all rests with Story. By all accounts he has the talent to be a 20/20 hitter who plays SS and hits in Coors Field. What's not to like? The problem here is nobody would be talking about Story if Jose Reyes wasn't sitting at home on paid leave waiting for due process to take its course. In fact, Reyes is scheduled to appear in court on April 4, the same day the Rockies play their home opener. It's entirely possible Reyes doesn't face any suspension time and joins the top of the Rockies lineup in April once he's deemed game-ready. The bottom line is that Jose Reyes is one of the top talents in that lineup and will be starting as long as is capable of taking the field.

If Reyes does face a lengthy suspension, then Story becomes fantasy-relevant. After this season or possibly at the trade deadline, the Rockies could look to move him if they're out of contention. Monitor this situation closely and be ready to pounce on Story if he's available on the waiver wire. Until then, don't slot him as your starting shortstop just yet, as you might be left scrounging for free agents once Reyes take over the position. It is a nice Story though. (I couldn't resist...)

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