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While identifying sleepers is a fun and pivotal exercise in the run-up to your fantasy football draft, it’s important to ensure you target the right players. Therefore, you must distinguish fact from fiction when examining potential sleepers late in the draft.
There’s not much downside with late-round picks, but you never want to completely waste a pick at any stage of the draft. So, which popular sleeper picks are ones you should avoid?
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s discuss three sleeper picks who are most likely to bust in 2024.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
It’s been a tough start to Williams’ career. He missed the first eleven games of his rookie season recovering from a torn ACL and only caught one pass on nine targets as a rookie. On top of that, he missed the first four games of 2023 due to a suspension for violating the league's gambling policy. While he’s struggled to stay on the field, Williams still has the same game-breaking speed that made the Lions select him 12th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft.
VIDEO: Lions WR Jameson Williams adjusts for a deep, 45-yard touchdown connection.
🎥: @NFL pic.twitter.com/mmPBjeNRlt
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) October 15, 2023
Williams has shown an ability to make splash plays, but that’s been it. He has not been a good player thus far in his career, and there is not much that points to the contrary. Williams should set career highs in 2024, but don’t expect much in terms of fantasy production outside of a spike game or two. While that is valuable in best ball formats, good luck figuring out when to play him in traditional lineup leagues. Don’t fall for the hype. He is an easy fade on draft day.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
After the Chargers moved on from longtime starters Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, some believe Palmer is in a position to capitalize. The problem is that Palmer has never been a particularly good player. He has never eclipsed 800 receiving yards or had more than four receiving touchdowns in any of his three NFL seasons. Here are Palmer’s finishes in several advanced metrics from the last two years courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite:
2023 (Among 104 receivers with 300 routes run)
Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): 67th
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 37th
Team Target Share (TGT %): 61st
Air Yards Share (AY Share): 41st
2022 (Among 101 receivers with 300 routes run)
TPRR: 67th
YPRR: 67th
Target Share: 61st
AY Share: 53rd
Overall, this data suggests Palmer is nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack receiver. Los Angeles also added rookie Ladd McConkey with the 34th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he figures to slide in as the team's WR1.
Ladd McConkey has a chance to get insane target numbers as a rookie if he can stay on the field pic.twitter.com/j0FpgEHZpj
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) April 26, 2024
There is nothing to be excited about for Palmer’s 2024 other than opportunity, and he has not shown that he is talented enough to take advantage of said opportunity. Look for other options on draft day.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Shakir had a strong finish to the 2023 season and is hoping that momentum carries over to 2024.
Khalil Shakir pinballing his way through the Steelers D ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/lRgHZkVCT8
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) January 16, 2024
The third-year receiver was in a prime position following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. However, that quickly changed when Buffalo signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a three-year, $24 million deal and drafted rookie receiver Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick in April’s draft. Second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid is also present and is expected to see an expanded role.
Shakir profiles best as a slot receiver, as he ran 78.1% of his routes from the slot last year, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. The problem is that Samuel and Kincaid also function primarily out of the slot. Coleman is not the best separator, and Buffalo may experiment with playing him inside to get him some easier looks. Shakir can get away with playing a little bit of flanker, but ideally, you want him in the slot. All the new target competition clouds his role in the offense, and it’s now unknown exactly how many targets will come his way.
Shakir was a fun sleeper pick a few months ago, but his situation has dramatically changed. We also can’t ignore the fact that if Buffalo truly believed in him, they probably would not have made the moves they did this offseason. Let someone else take a flier on Shakir.
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